BloodbasherMasher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Feb 12, 2003 - 22:42 |
 
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Actual statistics:
Chance of failing a GFI- 100%
Chance of failing a Dodge- 100%
Chance of rolling double skulls- 100%
Chance of rolling triple skulls- 99.9%
Chance of being caught for fouling- 100%
Chance of breaking armor- 0%
Chance of catching an accurate pass- 0%
Chance of doing anything productive during your turn- 0%
Chance of losing the game- 212%
Chance of having no chance at all- 100% |
_________________
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AsperonThorn
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 00:55 |
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Those aren't QUITE accurate, some are a little off.
Chance of failing 1st GFI when 2 are needed - 0%
Second GFI - 100%
Chance of failing a non-critical dodge at 8+ - 5%
Chance of failing a Critical Dodge at 2+ - 95%
Chance of making a non-Critical pass on your own half (far enough in your own halfthat it would take 2 turns for your opponent to get to the ball) just to get the extra SPP. - 25%
Chance of picking up the ball, the next turn - 0%
With a reroll - 0%
Chance of making a single GFI to make a Short pass a quick pass - 1%
With a reroll - 1.01%
Chance of getting anything other than a skull, when all you need is a PUSHBACK - 5%
With a reroll - 2%
Chance of causing a causalty with a 2 die block - 16.7%
Chance that the casualty is your own player - 63.6%
Chance of knocking over the ball carrier with a 1-die block - 2%
With a reroll - 1%
Chance of knocking over the ball carrier with a 2-die block - 4%
With a reroll - 1%
As you can see, when you fail an action, Rerolls do very little to help you out, as you are destined to fail. And in the case of Blocks they are often worse, since you will always Reroll a block worse, than what you started with.
Asperon Thorn |
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elara
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 01:43 |
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For blows that penetrate armour, the chances of causing a casualty are:
+0 -> 16.7%
+1 -> 27.8%
+2 -> 41.7%
+3 -> 58.3%
of all casualties, 33% result in death, stat decrease or niggling injury
Chances to remove a player from the pitch for a player with pile on and mighty blow:
AV10 AV9 AV8 AV7 AV6
ST3 -> 24% 34% 42% 49% 53%
ST4 -> 34% 42% 49% 53% 56%
ST5 -> 42% 49% 53% 56% 58%
ST6 -> 49% 53% 56% 58% 58%
Chances to remove a player from the pitch with an "average" foul (+4/+2)
AV10 -> 42%
AV9 -> 52%
AV8 -> 60%
AV7 -> 66%
AV6 -> 70%
Sickos with claws and razor sharp fangs on the same player cause an ejection on 42% of knockdowns and a casualty on 24% of knockdowns vs an AV8 player. |
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bongloder
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 05:27 |
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so now, figure ut the odds of going into three tackle zones to pick up the ball, then leave those tackle zones and hand off to a guy in two tackle zones... with dodge and sure feet...oh yah and you have to go for it 2 times to get to the guy to hand it off, but he has sure hands... (: |
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AsperonThorn
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 07:04 |
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Is it your team or the opponents team that is doing it?
Asperon Thorn |
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BloodbasherMasher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 17:38 |
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| AsperonThorn wrote: | As you can see, when you fail an action, Rerolls do very little to help you out, as you are destined to fail. And in the case of Blocks they are often worse, since you will always Reroll a block worse, than what you started with.
Asperon Thorn |
I hear you on this one. I have always felt that rerolls are just there for the world to say, "See! I told you you suck!"
Blood |
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Torr
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 18:07 |
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In the words of Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds." |
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Squaq
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 13, 2003 - 23:03 |
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Some days you just dont know what to do other than calculate some statistics on some BB-stuff...
Did you know that there is a higher proberbilty to directly hit a target with Hail Mary Pass by aiming at a square next to the catcher. Ofcause there is a little finess to this but still.
http://hjem.get2net.dk/jogs/bb/hmp.html
Or That MB is better than Claws to inflict casualties if you play Arm8 or lower!
http://hjem.get2net.dk/jogs/bb/howsafe.htm
But beware - "Statistics can be read like satan reads the bible"
 |
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AlphaX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Mar 15, 2003 - 05:38 |
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| AsperonThorn wrote: | Those aren't QUITE accurate, some are a little off.
Chance of knocking over the ball carrier with a 1-die block - 2%
With a reroll - 1%
Chance of knocking over the ball carrier with a 2-die block - 4%
With a reroll - 1%
Asperon Thorn |
You missed a very important one.
Chance of having your ball carrier drop the ball in a 1-die block - 50%
Chance of having your ball carrier drop the ball in a 2-die your favor block - 100%
More pratically, the more "rolls" that need to be made - the more likely you will fail. The other thing is that once the roll is made there is no statitic that the result will be anything other than what was rolled.
Chance that a goblin will get away from a halfling with diving tackle - 0% |
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