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CircularLogic



Joined: Aug 22, 2003

Post   Posted: Jan 28, 2009 - 19:36 Reply with quote Back to top

If you have DP, it`s for a cas. And I consider DP a given in competitive fouling :p
BooAhl



Joined: Sep 02, 2004

Post   Posted: Jan 29, 2009 - 17:04 Reply with quote Back to top

BooAhl wrote:
CircularLogic wrote:
Actually, as long as you have argue the call and have so many assists, that your AV will always succeed, chances for cas and ejection are the same.

0%?


Sorry just realized I mixed up argue the call with GTR. Because when you have GTR there is a 0% chance to get sent off when fouling.
Frankenstein



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Jan 29, 2009 - 17:37 Reply with quote Back to top

CircularLogic wrote:
If you have DP, it`s for a cas. And I consider DP a given in competitive fouling :p

Competitive Fouling will make a very good name for my next khemri side.

Thanks for the inspiration, man! Very Happy
Baki



Joined: Nov 03, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 07:35 Reply with quote Back to top

Do i see this right? When both teams got exact the same strength (s1 and s2 are variables for team strength i think?) than p (winning chance) will be 1(=100%) for both coaches?
sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 11:00 Reply with quote Back to top

Baki wrote:
Do i see this right? When both teams got exact the same strength (s1 and s2 are variables for team strength i think?) than p (winning chance) will be 1(=100%) for both coaches?


No:

http://fumbbl.com/help:Ranking

There the racial charts that comes into play too:

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats&op=rankings

So indeed this is only true for same race's matches.

Exemple: two TS 150 teams face each other. Orcs vs Khemri. The probability of orcs winning is 51.29%

As I assume that BR doesn't come into play in the formula, p=1, so P=p^(5^(1-2*0.5129))= hey wait = 1 then.

Am I wrong somewhere?

The racial chart doesn't count in equal TS matchs? That's kinda wrong to me.

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Nemeton



Joined: Dec 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 12:03 Reply with quote Back to top

So the racial chart is TS and not TR?

BTW, what about the win probabilities when the races arent within the same category? Say a 125 vs a 135 which is two different categories or even 125 vs 155 which is even further removed in the categories - how do you see the win probabilities for those matches?
Unstoffe



Joined: Aug 22, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 12:17 Reply with quote Back to top

Hmm... I think the problem must be the way the formula comes out with p=1 initially, surely for an exactly equal matchup it should be .5. If so, then for Orcs v Khemri the value for P would be .48552 which seems a bit more reasonable.
I suspect there is a little bit more to the formulae than is given on those pages. For instance, as per Nemeton's question there must be some way of deciding what racial factor values to use if the two teams are in different TS brackets.

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sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 13:37 Reply with quote Back to top

Unstoffe wrote:
Hmm... I think the problem must be the way the formula comes out with p=1 initially, surely for an exactly equal matchup it should be .5. If so, then for Orcs v Khemri the value for P would be .48552 which seems a bit more reasonable.
I suspect there is a little bit more to the formulae than is given on those pages. For instance, as per Nemeton's question there must be some way of deciding what racial factor values to use if the two teams are in different TS brackets.


oh yes true!

Stupid me, it is 1/(1+1^(dS/70)) which makes 0.5.

Hence, there's an effect

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Unstoffe



Joined: Aug 22, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 14:06 Reply with quote Back to top

Actually, I think the correct formula for p (for Ranked) should be:

1/ (1 + 10 ^ ((dR / 40) + (dT / 70)))

This will give a value ranging from .5 (for equal CR and TS), increasing towards 1 as dR and/or dT increase. If it was 1^ rather than 10^ then p would always be .5.
Obviously for BlackBox you remove the '(dR / 40) +' bit.

So, I think a fairly crucial ^ symbol is missing from the help page... not sure I'm quite confident enough to edit it though Smile

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sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 17:00 Reply with quote Back to top

Unstoffe wrote:
Actually, I think the correct formula for p (for Ranked) should be:

1/ (1 + 10 ^ ((dR / 40) + (dT / 70)))

This will give a value ranging from .5 (for equal CR and TS), increasing towards 1 as dR and/or dT increase. If it was 1^ rather than 10^ then p would always be .5.
Obviously for BlackBox you remove the '(dR / 40) +' bit.

So, I think a fairly crucial ^ symbol is missing from the help page... not sure I'm quite confident enough to edit it though Smile


yeah mistyped this time.

The ^ symbol is useless as the rest of the formula is written at the top (en exposant in french, don't know how to translate)

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westerner



Joined: Jul 02, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 17:40 Reply with quote Back to top

sk8bcn wrote:
(en exposant in french, don't know how to translate)

exponent

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Unstoffe



Joined: Aug 22, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2009 - 17:51 Reply with quote Back to top

Wow, it's been so long since I used pen and paper to do maths, completely forgot that you can use superscript to denote an exponent. So much easier to use ^ when typing. Good thing I didn't start editing the page Embarassed

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Balle2000



Joined: Sep 25, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 16, 2009 - 06:38 Reply with quote Back to top

Instead of Blackbox being an own league, how about making it an optional tool for all leagues? (especially Ranked and Stunty).

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johan



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Feb 27, 2009 - 10:53 Reply with quote Back to top

Christer, any plans for when the (ahem) Black Box Testing will be finished, and we'll go to a full roll-out?

Or will it be like Gmail, technically still in its Beta after five years? Smile

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xcver



Joined: Mar 10, 2005

Post   Posted: Feb 27, 2009 - 11:11 Reply with quote Back to top

johan wrote:
Christer, any plans for when the (ahem) Black Box Testing will be finished, and we'll go to a full roll-out?

Or will it be like Gmail, technically still in its Beta after five years? Smile


hey, Google Earth came finally out of beta phase with version 6!!! Razz

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