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Baal



Joined: Jan 30, 2006

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 18:41 Reply with quote Back to top

I really enjoy the Blackbox idea, its much better than waiting hours for a ranked game when nobody wants to play you.
I tried Necros in the box, I gained some victories with my first team but they are at no time equal to other teams due to overrated TS.

Of course you can win a game vs a coach who doesnt know how to play the game but vs an equally skilled coach you have to be very lucky.
When I look at some game setups I think a monkey could play the game instead of me with same results Laughing

In ranked tourneys its always the Team Rating that affects your "strenght", you may say thats not fair but with teams like necros who start with a quite high TS, you play one game and may end with a TS of 125 without any skills.

I also wonder how this will be handled in LRB 5, I know that Necros are not easy to play but I cant see how this team is played vs teams only based on TS.
Maybe a mix of TR/TS could help to give better results in finding an opponent.

And yes, I am frustrated not only because of unfair game setups but also for having frequently bad luck Crying or Very sad

edit: I think the original TS rating in LRB 4 is sometimes broken, just look at the orc teams, they are usually stronger than the value indicates
shadow46x2



Joined: Nov 22, 2003

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 21:06 Reply with quote Back to top

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team&op=view&showstats=1&team_id=514664

i'm sorry, what?

--j

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maysrill



Joined: Dec 29, 2008

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 21:13 Reply with quote Back to top

There are 2 losses and 4 draws in there, something must be done! Wink

In LRB5 the roster is less gimpy. The wolves regen, and the wights get S access. Maybe you'll be able to manage 19/0/0 then Wink

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SillySod



Joined: Oct 10, 2006

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 21:34 Reply with quote Back to top

shadow46x2 wrote:
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team&op=view&showstats=1&team_id=514664

i'm sorry, what?

--j


Thats still a weak looking roster for its TS. Just because hes clearly good with them doesn invalidate his opinion about their strength... I'd say it actually adds weight to his opinion.

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Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.

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shadow46x2



Joined: Nov 22, 2003

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 21:42 Reply with quote Back to top

actually, excluding the 4 games agaisnt dorfs/vampires, i was referring to the overall tr/ts vs delta....

hence why i included the stats...

way to fail...

as for whether or not the roster is "weak"...that's not a problem with TS..that's a problem with the coach not managing his spps properly, and allowing 4 players to accumulate all of the SPPs on the team...not to mention the 4 zombies that are 1 SPP away from a skill...

the team isn't weak due to flaws with necros...the team is weak due to flaws in management....

--j

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Kryten



Joined: Sep 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 21:54
FUMBBL Staff
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You might get a more reasonable sample here:

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=teams&group=&race=17&order=5&nav=10

Baal is a good enough coach that his results aren't too meaningful - he's likely to have a winning record with whichever race. If we're talking about TS being accurate, I would say we need a range of results from coaches of various strengths.

I haven't looked in detail at the table, but it looks to me like they are bunched around 50%.

Also, looking here: http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=blackbox, we see a BWR for necromantic of 149.86. Interestingly enough, that's higher than the BWR for wood elves, and is certainly as close to 150 as one might reasonably expect.
SillySod



Joined: Oct 10, 2006

Post   Posted: Jun 11, 2009 - 22:51 Reply with quote Back to top

shadow46x2 wrote:
actually, excluding the 4 games agaisnt dorfs/vampires, i was referring to the overall tr/ts vs delta....

hence why i included the stats...

as for whether or not the roster is "weak"...that's not a problem with TS..that's a problem with the coach not managing his spps properly, and allowing 4 players to accumulate all of the SPPs on the team...not to mention the 4 zombies that are 1 SPP away from a skill...

the team isn't weak due to flaws with necros...the team is weak due to flaws in management....


The TS disadvantage his team has been recieving is because they have been recieving handicaps which arent taken into account by that particular stat. In blackbox a negative average TS difference usually says "often recieves handicaps" rather than "has had unlucky matchups".

Personally I think the team is pretty well managed, you dont really want too many skilled zombies because they go up massively in price for each skill when the skills are mostly irrelevant. The main problem with his team is the flesh golems lack skills (a common necro problem)... the difference between skilled flash golems and rookies is pretty large but sadly the TS formula doesnt really take account of that.

Most of the big problems with the TS formula stem from two key flaws:
- additional skills start adding more and more to a players value (this makes sense for some players but not really fo linemen, tackle on a zombie isnt worth 30k Shocked)
- players whos value goes above 120k start recieving a major discount (which means high value players who tend to benefit more from extra skills get their additional skills much cheaper)

Norse, amazons, undead, necro, khmeri, halflings, and goblins all really suffer at higher TS because they have cheap linemen whos alleged value skyrockets as they pickup more and more skills. This is completely contrary to the logic that as players skill up their stats become increasingly important relative to their skills. Even more perverse is the fact that vampires, chaos warriors, and gutter runners are all relatively cheap to skill - blodge on a vampire costs less TS than having two block thralls.... which is total BS Smile

Obviously these arent the only flaws (claws not being valued is an obvious one) but they are the only fundamental flaws which stretch throughout the system causing problems time and again.

_________________
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sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Jun 12, 2009 - 10:31 Reply with quote Back to top

I m not sure, but as far as I remember, the race win percentage was taken in account into the match seeder. Hence, if necros underperform, you'll get slightly weaker opponents.

That beeing said, I think no LRB4 TS overhaul is worth it. IMO, a TS>TV would be worth it for LRB5.

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Grod



Joined: Sep 30, 2003

Post   Posted: Jun 12, 2009 - 10:56 Reply with quote Back to top

Don't take dirty players then! 2 dirty player zombies = 19K TS (11K extra). That is the equivalent of ... well a whole heap of regular skills (5.5?).

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Fela



Joined: Dec 27, 2004

Post   Posted: Jun 12, 2009 - 10:59 Reply with quote Back to top

shadow46x2 wrote:
actually, excluding the 4 games agaisnt dorfs/vampires, i was referring to the overall tr/ts vs delta....

hence why i included the stats...

way to fail...

as for whether or not the roster is "weak"...that's not a problem with TS..that's a problem with the coach not managing his spps properly, and allowing 4 players to accumulate all of the SPPs on the team...not to mention the 4 zombies that are 1 SPP away from a skill...

the team isn't weak due to flaws with necros...the team is weak due to flaws in management....


Actually you're supporting his arguments there instead of contradictng them. EVEN THOUGH there are a lot of wasted SPPs there raising the TR, the TR/TS ratio is still heavily biased towards TS.

The problem is mostly, that with the way the box schedules, you will usually end up playing matches where you actually gain handicaps, but play a much superior team (the effect being increased by the fact that the handicaps will even raise your TS) and the handicaps will in 90% of the cases not compensate for the mismatchup.

Chaos IMO has similar problems, btw.
SillySod



Joined: Oct 10, 2006

Post   Posted: Jun 12, 2009 - 17:28 Reply with quote Back to top

Fela wrote:
Chaos IMO has similar problems, btw.


Good point, the horns on the beasts really push values up. This is mitigated somewhat by the relative cheapness of the warriors.... but has the really odd effect that skilling the warriors is cheaper even though its stronger.

_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.

"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced."
arw



Joined: Jan 07, 2007

Post   Posted: Jun 16, 2009 - 15:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Can there be any doubt?
Of course TS isn't always accurate...
Who would love to have two throwers in Blackbox for instance?
Orc and Human throwers have "the best" TR/TS ratio in these teams.
Those throwers (especially a 2nd one) are hardly as strong as TS claims.

This could only be avoided by calculating synergy effects.

Would be very complicated.

Always wondered why so many people tend to rely on TS to be accurate.
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