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Thunderfrog



Joined: Jul 25, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 04:34 Reply with quote Back to top

Guys I really appreciate the help on the topic.

I usually consider the foul action as important as my blitz or pass actions. So, if someone could help me in terms of percentages, I would appreciate the math lesson.

Is the following statement correct?

"Without taking skills into account, if you can 100% break armor, there is a 40% chance to KO an opponent, vs a 28% chance of getting called off the field."

Lastly, what is the % chance, with and without dirty player, of a broken armor roll resulting in a casualty?
Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 08:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Thunderfrog wrote:

"Without taking skills into account, if you can 100% break armor, there is a 40% chance to KO an opponent, vs a 28% chance of getting called off the field."

A min. K.O. happens on an 8+ so (1+2+3+4+5)/36 = 15/36 = ~41.67%. A ban under the new rules is (1-(5/6)^2)*5/6 = ~24.46%, assuming the armor breaks and the coach has not been banned.
But keep in mind that a 100% armor break is incredibly unlikely. To set up the necessary assists for that you'd have to essentially abandon any other activity on the field and just crowd your whole team around a player... in reality if you don't want to abandon all strategy, setting up a foul with just 2 or 3 assists is usually not that easy.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 09:33 Reply with quote Back to top

There are games when my opponent is marking my players, and i am busy hitting, have a lot of opportunity hitting, and fouling would be bad idea, as i rather move around assists to capitalize on those blocks.
There are other games when my opponent is avoiding contact, but i absolutely want to eliminate some players to limit the 'miracle potential' of that team. In that game i foul a lot, and can do so without hampering my positions.

It all really depends on many factors.

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Grod



Joined: Sep 30, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 11:17 Reply with quote Back to top

Foul in a spiteful way whenever the game appears to be skipping from your grasp.

Foul if you are playing Purple chest every turn.

Foul if you are drinking alcohol.

Foul if you had a bad day at work.

Foul if your opponent is whining about dice luck. Send him on tilt.

Foul if the fouler is a secret weapon about to get sent off.

Foul if you are getting bored.

Foul if it's Friday.

Foul if your favourite sports team is losing on the tv you are watching side by side.

Foul if you just feel like it.

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Last edited by Grod on Aug 21, 2017 - 11:18; edited 1 time in total
Naama



Joined: Jun 12, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 11:18 Reply with quote Back to top

Usually if i have 12+ players, of which one is on the rookie side, i tend to foul with him whenever an opportunity presents itself. I don't stop until he gets sent off. Only after he hits the showers do i start weighing risks Very Happy

This all of course situational. If i need him to provide tackle zones or mark a big threat, then i'd rather do that. Unless i have a chance remove a big load of SPP off the field.
Verminardo



Joined: Sep 27, 2006

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 13:08 Reply with quote Back to top

Fouling as a strategy is something of a gamble. If you do it, you kind of have to keep doing it. With some teams it’s not a bad gamble, but it’s still a gamble. You will find that coaches who don’t like a gamble foul very rarely. You will find that even those coaches who are very successful with the fouling strategy have games where it absolutely backfires. Certainly there is no logic like “when you have a chance to gang foul, always do it”. All that said, absolutely do try out the fouling strategy, to see if it’s for you. Or spec some games by cdassak. Wink
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 16:49 Reply with quote Back to top

when to foul?

when you can.

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JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 17:34 Reply with quote Back to top

I like to run squads big enough to absorb the hit if I get a couple men sent off. Fouling good players with cheap players, especially early in the game, is a good tactic.

Generally I try not to foul unless I can get to AV6 or, even better, AV5, after assists.

Some teams I run live to foul: my NBFL Orc squad fields four Dirty Players, three of them with other skills. Other teams, especially teams in Ranked and Box with more expensive linemen (and thus smaller benches), only foul when there's a great strategic reason to do it.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 18:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Grod wrote:
Foul in a spiteful way whenever the game appears to be skipping from your grasp.

Foul if you are playing Purple chest every turn.

Foul if you are drinking alcohol.

Foul if you had a bad day at work.

Foul if your opponent is whining about dice luck. Send him on tilt.

Foul if the fouler is a secret weapon about to get sent off.

Foul if you are getting bored.

Foul if it's Friday.

Foul if your favourite sports team is losing on the tv you are watching side by side.

Foul if you just feel like it.


This guy gets it.
keggiemckill



Joined: Oct 07, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 23, 2017 - 17:49 Reply with quote Back to top

I generally don't foul unless I can get it down to 5 AV. A 5 plus roll is likely to break the Armour. 6, if Im up players.

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Catalyst32



Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2018 - 04:42 Reply with quote Back to top

NOW! NOW! FOUL NOW!!! NOW!!!




Ahhhhhh! You missed it!

Oh well. Here is a nice article with the maths on fouling.

https://bbtactics.com/armor-break-and-injury-tables/
Keothi



Joined: Jul 08, 2013

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2018 - 06:08 Reply with quote Back to top

Pretty sure Grotty Little Newspaper did an interesting article on the economics of Fouling. It's like making a $20 bet, with a chance (insert AV value - (DP+Assists) %) to "win" break armour and the winnings can be tiered by Stun, KO, Injury. So you can essentially decide what kind of gambler you want to be; do you like betting $20/foul with a 1/10 chance of winning $100; 3/10 chance of winning $10 etc

The price of your foul bet is the TV of the player used to foul multiplied by the (decimal form) chance of being sent off. You can then do the same Maths for the reward component; TV of the player target x (decimal form) probability of leaving the pitch.
Keothi



Joined: Jul 08, 2013

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2018 - 06:10 Reply with quote Back to top

Whether you are sent off or not; on the laws of averages every Foul contains a "cost" component; eventually the Maths will balance out on Fouls that succeeded and send-offs that occurred... Unless you're coach Daudy and suffering from the Sharper Observer Paradox.
Punkow



Joined: Nov 28, 2017

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2018 - 16:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Traul wrote:
Thunderfrog wrote:
For example, if I want to foul - and then break armor, he explained that I have a 33% chance of being called off the pitch by the ref, and then a 17% +/- chance of arguing the foul.

So assuming no bribes, and assuming gangfoul assures breaking of armor, isn't it pretty much always worth the 40% chance to inflict a KO or better when you weigh it against a 16% chance of getting called off the field?

That math is not correct: probabilities do not subtract. The probability to be sent off is 33% x 5/6 (probability that the Argue call fails) = 28%.


I do not believe that the probability of being caugth is 33% either. even assuming that you would roll for inhury all the time (which you won't) it is at most approx. 30,5%
charlie1331



Joined: Sep 16, 2012

Post   Posted: Feb 06, 2018 - 19:01 Reply with quote Back to top

I don't foul as much as I should, but when I do it's usually out of spite

Seems to work out well

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