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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 16:14 Reply with quote Back to top

JackassRampant asked me as a draft expect, who is not playing in NBFL to rate the Season20 Draft picks.

For historical reasons i will keep the following metrics (mostly):

A = Ooh, that's nice. Either the pick fits the specific position really well, or the pick shouldn't have fallen that far. Huge improvement for the team.
B = Hey, that works. Maybe it was the best player available, or maybe it was just a good fit. Team improved by a lot.
C = Why did you do that? I guess it's better than nothing. Team improved, but could have done significantly better.
D = Meh. Team did not really improve.
F = You made your team objectively worse.

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)


Last edited by bghandras on Jan 01, 2018 - 11:42; edited 1 time in total
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 16:32 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no1-no3

1. ST+, MB, ST+, Beastman
Comment: This has a huge ceiling, but not the best choice. Solid, but not great. If this guy lives long, then the coach will be considered a mastermind. If the player dies before getting to block skill, well, then there will be buyers remorse.
Verdict: B.

2. DP, AG+, AG+, Looney
Comment: This is very hard to rate. Depending on the opponent this could be objectively worse than a rookie, or a difference maker. On expected value i think having 100k on a guy who spends only a few turns on the pitch is not a good deal. I could realistically argue that this made the team worse. I will err on the strictness side to show i am tough. Also, anybody else could say he made a better pick than this one. This might be something.
Verdict: F

3. AG+, T, ST+, AG+, Pestigor.
Comment: Getting the best guy in the draft at no3? Good job!
Verdict: A. (The best 'A' i can give.)

Expansion draft no1-no3

1. ST+, MB, PO, T, G, Wight
Comment: Solid player, fills need, and will be a decent addition.
Verdict: B

2. B, MB, ST+, BT, D, Tomb Guardian
Comment: Again, solid contributor. Not the best pick possible, but i like this one.
Verdict: B

3. AG+, D, AG+, ST+, B, Skink
Comment: I think this was the best package in this draft, so this is a huge deal. Putting stats on a stunty player is bloat, but a lizard team needs 1 skink with ag4, or more, and this one has ag5, and also str3. I think the value is still too good, and considered a steal.
Verdict: A

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 16:48 Reply with quote Back to top

Luvvit. Keep 'em coming!

_________________
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and Tackle Zones; reddened blades of grass.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 17:07 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no4-no6

4. Sprint, MA+, S.Feet, AG+, Gutter Runner
Comment: Natural, reliable 1 turner. I am just OK with the value, but i am all in for the fit. I will rate this high, assuming the 1turning will be available, and the coach will play and scheme accordingly. If not, then the rating should be 1 less as this is not an every drive player.
Verdict: A-.

5. B, MA+, MA+, Vampire
Comment: The pick makes sense, as Vamps have lot of stats, but low on speed. So this is something to consider. On the other hand the package is clearly not the best value. I am tempted to go with a C, but....
Verdict: B-

6. MB, ST+, T, G, Blitzer
Comment: This was the 2nd best package on my list, and the fit is perfect. There is little to argue about it. Getting the 2nd best at no6 is a steal.
Verdict: A.

Expansion draft picks no4-no6

4. MB, T, G, AG+, D
Comment: Slightly later than it should have been, this was a good value. The fit is excellent.
Verdict: A-.

5. AV+, ST+, G
Comment: This works, but wont be a difference maker. I am not a fan of the pick, but no harm done.
Verdict: B.

6. MA+, Dodge, S.Hands, SS, Bull Centaur
Comment: I guess the coach wanted badly a Bull. But the value is just not right. In a case when trading is a real possibility i dont like this one at all. I mean this improves the team a lot, but the team could have been better off with other course of action.
Verdict: C+.

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 17:34 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no7-no9

7. D, ST+, CD Blocker
Comment: Strength is strength. But that is the best i can tell about this pick.
Verdict: B.

8. AG+, D, T, Leap, Gutter Runner
Comment: This is a great package, not perfect fit, but still very solid. Will be complete player after next skilling.
Verdict: B+.

9. D, MB, G, SS, Saurus
Comment: Acceptable, but not the best choice. Also not the best fit. No block. You must be kidding me. Smile
Verdict: C.

Expansion draft picks no7-no9

7. MA+, B, Gutter Runner
Comment: I get this is potentially a natural 1 turner. But this is a weak package, and good packages work good on gutters. Natural 1turners dont usually need block. Also trade could have been an option.
Verdict: C-.

8. AG+, AG+, SH, SS, Vampire
Comment: I like the value, the fit is also good. This is a little too optimistic, but well worth the gambit.
Verdict: B+.

9. G, MB, PO, B, T, skaven blitzer
Comment: This is all solid, everything is good here. I like the pick
Verdict: A-.

_________________
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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)


Last edited by bghandras on Dec 31, 2017 - 17:40; edited 1 time in total
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 17:38 Reply with quote Back to top

Hey, can you edit this to show the team name, race and position drafted?

_________________
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and Tackle Zones; reddened blades of grass.
thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 18:15 Reply with quote Back to top

While Fummblers might be familiar with Da Book of Dakka, they might not know about bg's X Files. Billions upon billions of Xcel Files about statistics, picks, and other arcane stuff I may never get.

But looking back this morning, I found this new sheet

Quote:
BG'S SECRET PLAN

1. write objectively pure reports according to file XFG7865
2. get management invitations from all NBFL coaches
3. DO ALL THE PICKS NEXT YEAR ALL BY MYSELF
4. LAUGH UNCONTROLLABLY


The truth is now out there.

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There is always Sneaky Git.
Kzarik



Joined: Sep 25, 2016

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 18:56 Reply with quote Back to top

In a league that has a really high TV floor/ceiling and with a rookie team...I absolutely think that Gutters need protection hence the pick w/ it. Also...did trade down(and up) to get to that spot and got basically the same guys available to me at 4.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 19:01 Reply with quote Back to top

The trade is not rated in that one. I rate the trade as A if you aimed for that player all along. On the other hand you could have traded to 10-11, and still get the same player.

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2017 - 21:07 Reply with quote Back to top

great work and a big thanks for doing this BGHandras.

For reference to the draft board and draft picks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SQX907hM9HP4LdT7YGDdO-Jm-uJgomko6pxmHbNR9D0/edit?usp=sharing
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 01, 2018 - 09:57 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no10-no12

10. D, B, KOR, Fend, Thro-ra
Comment: Solid package, but +AG on Thro-ra that elevate the Khemri. Considering that, and the availability of +AG packages i cant give a high rating according to my strict standards. I would have gambled on blockless +AG all day with this race.
Verdict: C.

11. MB, B, PO, SS, werewolf
Comment: So the puppy got sharp fangs, and penetrating teeth. Absolutely love this pick. The fact that SideStep goes well with his frenzy, and sideline hugging tendencies is just the icing on the cake.
Verdict: A.

12. G, D, MB, S.Firm, dorf blocker
Comment: Great value, but not the best option available. The very definition of a B for me.
Verdict: B

Expansion draft picks no10-no12

10. B, G, Sfirm, Beast of Nurgle
Comment: Taking the same package without BreakTackle is totally OK. On the other hand i am not sure why the big guy got the boost, and not a warrior or pesti with a different pick. There would have been real difference makers out there.
Verdict: C.

11. B, MB, G, Warrior
Comment: Everything is all right here, but not this package went too early, like the one before. The team could have used something else here, that would have made a much bigger difference. They took a solid roleplayer instead.
Verdict: C.

12. B, G, BT, Sfirm, Rat Ogre
Comment: What i said above still applies. Recurring theme, eh? With that said this is more for the Ratogre than the pick no10, so i like slightly more. The fact that gutters can self service, linos are not worth the huge investment, and Rogre needs block more than Best of Nurgle, and we are 2 spots behind, elevates this pick.
Verdict: B-.

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
DrPoods



Joined: Nov 14, 2013

Post   Posted: Jan 01, 2018 - 11:15 Reply with quote Back to top

I can see why you would rate this where you did. But I need the “role players” in my division. Also, the other candidates were not objectively better. Skills such as BT are a waste on a Nurgle Warrior and those that didn’t have that were missing block. Given that, you know, a Nurgle Warrior kind of wants block, taking guys with multiple marginal skills is just wasting opportunities.

So no problem with your rating even if I think both would rate a B which you state is for a “best fit”. I would simply say that I am more than happy with the selections. I didn’t see the “difference makers” that would fill the roles I needed, while having the skills I want/need.

Warriors and (arguably) a Beast with Block are far bigger priorities for an expansion team.

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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 01, 2018 - 12:53 Reply with quote Back to top

I would have taken a warrior over the beast. I dont want to point at any skill package not to influence the draft, so i am mindful that my argument cant be fully articulated. But hey, prove me wrong on the pitch!

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2018 - 18:05 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no13-no15

13. SS, AG+, DT, Skaven Renegade
Comment: An incomplete player with lots of rare skills. Will most probably die before skilling, but might be worth a shot.
Verdict: B-.

14. MB, AG+, T, Jug, Werewolf
Comment: Very strange combo, but the Juggernaut actually works well without block. I like this gamble more. ESpecially as armor is higher, and regenerate gives some resilience.
Verdict: B.

15. MB, JU, T, AG+, Blitzer
Comment: I like this pick. Very solid value at this spot.
Verdict: A-.

Expansion draft picks no13-no15

13. B, AG+, SS, Vampire
Comment: This is not terrible, but considering the other options available i dont like the pick at all. There was a package that could have stabilized the whole vampire team. Neither the fit neither the value is where i expected.
Verdict: C+.

14. MB, G, T
Comment: There is nothing really to see here. Normal skills that are useful, but the package is way down the list i imagine should be picked here.
Verdict: C-.

15. MB, B, T, BT, D, Bull Centaur
Comment: This is a very solid pick, one that will help the team immediately. I am a little surprised this package dropped so much.
Verdict: A-.

_________________
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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2018 - 18:15 Reply with quote Back to top

Regular draft picks no16-no18

16. B, ST+, K, Strip, Fend, Witch elf
Comment: Lots of skills, okayish fit, STR included, but some bloat too. There were better options in my mind.
Verdict: B-.

17. B, AG+, MA+, T, Hobgoblin
Comment: Great value pickup, on a bad positional.
Verdict: B.

18. G, D, MB, Elf Lineman
Comment: I am puzzled by this pick at multiple levels. Good having 3 core skills, but when so much else is out there...If those skills, then why not Guard?
Verdict: C.

Expansion draft picks no16-no18

16. SH, ST+, Hobgoblin
Comment: Very mixed feelings about this pick. Survivability is questionable without block skill. Hobbo could be a carrier, but no agility here. STR hobbo scream for being a safety not a ball hawk. I would have picked up a different positional.
Verdict: C.

17. MB, T, G, MA+, Frenzy, Orc Blitzer
Comment: I like this pick obviously. All skills are useful for an orc blitzer, this could be a sideline to sideline safety that orc teams lack of. Core skills and stats together, i imagined this package to go much earlier.
Verdict: B+.

18. D, B, BT, T, Saurus
Comment: These are core skills for the saurus, and having Dodge is a significant premium. There were only 2 slightly better valued packages than this, but that is also contextual.
Verdict: B+.

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'Best thing on FUMBBL'(Seventyone),
'AWESOME'(Kummo), 'Last league i would leave'(SpecialOne), 'Far far the BEST thing i played online'(Grunth)
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