Lambert
Joined: Jan 27, 2008
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 Posted:
Mar 07, 2008 - 01:18 |
 
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For my own purposes I am planning on calculating the odds of success for various combinations of actions.
For example: is dodgeing a player into position to give an assist to get a 2-db worth it or is a 1-db more likely to succeed? What are the chances of making different length of passes with between the most common passers and receivers? What are the odds of a starting wardancer jumping into a cage and sacking the ball carrier? How likely is it for a goblin to dodge through a line of defenders?
Is there anything like this in existance? If not, would there be interest in my making these figures available to the community? And if so, are there any other common combinations of actions that you think should be included? |
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kn00b
Joined: Jan 23, 2008
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2008 - 01:21 |
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Most of the examples you listed are pretty easy to figure out on your own. six sided dice are fairly simple probabilities given the most common skills are block and the reroll-set (dodge, sure hands, sure feet, etc.) |
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Hovring
Joined: Oct 29, 2003
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Mar 07, 2008 - 01:46 |
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I rather have a program for it really.
For instance no list can weigh up 3+ dodge (with dodge), 3+ dodge (with dodge), 2+ gfi, 2+ gfi, 1db (with block against dodge), (with reroll) VS 5+ dodge, 4+ dodge, 2db (with tackle and block against dodge) (with reroll) |
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paulhicks
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
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Mar 07, 2008 - 01:47 |
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Id hate to have a list of all probabilities on here... garanteed id get stuck plying the guy who spends the first 3 minutes of each turn working every single chance out to ensure the most likely corse for success.......
.... wait.... i think i just figured out what dominiks been doing  |
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Kill-Kill
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
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Mar 07, 2008 - 02:11 |
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| paulhicks wrote: | Id hate to have a list of all probabilities on here... garanteed id get stuck plying the guy who spends the first 3 minutes of each turn working every single chance out to ensure the most likely corse for success.......
.... wait.... i think i just figured out what dominiks been doing |
Yeah, but he uses an abacus. |
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Colin
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2008 - 14:03 |
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| Lambert wrote: | For my own purposes I am planning on calculating the odds of success for various combinations of actions.
<snip>
Is there anything like this in existance? If not, would there be interest in my making these figures available to the community? And if so, are there any other common combinations of actions that you think should be included? |
There's nothing to stop you creating a new page on the User Guide for this purpose.
While some of us can do some of the statistics in our heads, not everyone can. 1d6 is easy enough to work out, multiple d6 is a little trickier.
e.g. 3+ dodge with Dodge skill (1/3 chance of failure on each d6):
1-(1/3*1/3) = 8/9
e.g. 2 successive 3+ dodges without reroll:
2/3*2/3 = 4/9
With rerolls and multiple actions, it gets more complicated. e.g. 2 successive 3+ dodges with reroll - to calculate, consider the sequences of rolls that could occur to cause failure, and subtract from 1;
1 - failure/failure, failure/success/failure or success/failure/failure
= 1- (1/3*1/3) + (1/3*2/3*1/3) + (2/3*1/3*1/3)
= 1- 3/27 + 2/27 + 2/27
= 1 - 7/27
= 20/27
= 74%
Compare this to Ag 4 for the same actions (1/6 chance of failure on d6):
= 1- (1/6*1/6) + 2*(1/6*5/6*1/6)
= 1- (1/36) + 2(5/216)
= 1- 6/216 + 10/216
= 1- 16/216
= 1- 2/27
= 25/27
= 92.6%
You can do it either way - here, I work out the chance of succesful rolls instead of failures. The result is the same:
success/success, failure/success/success, success/failure/success
= 25/36 + 25/216 + 25/216
= 150/216 + 50/216
= 200/216
= 25/27
= 92.6% |
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