alterationX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Oct 25, 2003 - 15:57 |
 
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RW 6 Armor: 58,3 % Injury: 9,7 % MB 18,6 % PO S3 15,3 % PO S5 16,7 % PO S5 MB 27,8 %
RW 7 Armor: 41,7 % Injury: 6,9 % MB 13,9 % PO S3 13,9 % PO S5 16,2 % PO S5 MB 27 %
RW 8 Armor: 27,8 % Inury: 4,6 % MB 10,1 % PO S3 12 % PO S5 15,3 % PO S5 MB 25,8 %
RW 9 Armor: 16,7 % Inury: 2,8 % MB 6,5 % PO S3 9,7 % PO S5 13,9 % PO S5 MB 23,1 %
Just some probabilities for injuries... If some admin feels like inserting proper tables please go ahead 
the percentages should be accurate apart from the PO S5 MBs which are a tiny little bit too high. |
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cataphract
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 16:06 |
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piling on only affects armour rolls... not injury rolls... |
_________________
"the eunuch should not take pride in its chastity" |
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alterationX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 16:07 |
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that's right, so? it does affect the probability of someone getting injured when he goes down nonetheless. please think before you post, a superficial look at the numbers would have sufficed. |
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psikobunny
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 18:01 |
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I'd rather trust your numbers after you explain how you got them. |
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alterationX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 18:15 |
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jesus, doesn't anybody learn statistics these days?
armor: possible combinations above av/36
injury umodified: armor * 16,67 (possibility for results above 9)
PO: reduce armor and do the stuff above
mighty blow: normal armor * 27,8 % (probability for results above  + number of possibilities to roll equal to armor value/36 * 16,7%
*sighs*
was that really so difficult? |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 18:19 |
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I don't even see the point of creating these tables, to be honest. The probabilities are either obvious or useless. |
_________________
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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Jugular
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 22:56 |
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alterationX you are falling into the age old mistakes of bad statisticians. It's always obvious as to what the stats mean to the person who compiled them but to be of any use quick glance tables with full explanations are the only way. Maybe a superficial look at any serious stats book may help you there. |
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psikobunny
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 25, 2003 - 23:14 |
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There is no need for the snide tone. You're new here, yet you treat any response to your "work" as unassailable.
I asked for the same reason that a math or statistics teacher would ask you to show your work. |
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Pernicion
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Oct 25, 2003 - 23:31 |
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| psikobunny wrote: | | You're new here, |
Looks like everyone joined at the same time to me, Aug 02 2003 |
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Tank
Joined: Sep 06, 2003
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Oct 26, 2003 - 00:19 |
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BOOMING VOICE FROM ABOVE !
HELLO AlterationX JESUS HERE !
To answer your question NO nobody learns statistic's anymore and there are no Stat,Statys,Statishtishyons, Arrr crap the gig's up !
On a "superficial" note CHILL dude
Ya cumin across as way too rude
Try to get a game and have some fun
before someone tell's ya to
stick ya figure's up ya .....!
Hope you understand JK mate, Just enjoy ! |
_________________
If it's tourist season, why can't we shoot them? |
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VoidSeer
Joined: Jan 29, 2004
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Jan 29, 2004 - 18:47 |
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I did the math too. My main reason doing this was to check the usefullness of a DP.
Here it is, if it can be of any use.
The figures of the DP line do not take in account the bonus given when fouling (+1).
So substract 1 to the AV for each player involved in the fouling (including the one performing the action).
| Code: |
Chances to get a CAS:
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Skill | AV 4 | AV 5 | AV 6 | AV 7 | AV 8 | AV 9 | AV 10 |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| none | 14% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| MB | 25% | 22% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 4% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| DP | 37% | 33% | 28% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 7% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
Chances to get a KO or better:
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Skill | AV 4 | AV 5 | AV 6 | AV 7 | AV 8 | AV 9 | AV 10 |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| none | 34% | 30% | 24% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 3% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| MB | 52% | 47% | 40% | 31% | 22% | 14% | 8% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| DP | 66% | 60% | 53% | 43% | 33% | 22% | 14% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
Chances to get a stun or better:
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Skill | AV 4 | AV 5 | AV 6 | AV 7 | AV 8 | AV 9 | AV 10 |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| none | 83% | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 17% | 8% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| MB | 92% | 83% | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 17% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| DP | 97% | 92% | 83% | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
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Adar
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 29, 2004 - 19:36 |
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I learned statistics... In 8th grade.
I dunno if the Swedish school system is some kind of super school but I got a hard time seeing how it is hard to figure out how he got those stats (and even without any skills in statistics should most people be well versed enough to realise that the statistics can be figured out pretty easily). And a quick glance should tell most decent mathematicans that the stats aren't too far wrong. |
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Mostly-Harmless
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 29, 2004 - 19:43 |
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Hey dedicated statisticans here
Can anybody give me abstract formulas to resolve the percentages for Block results?
Input should be Strength difference, Support plus all relevant combination of the Skills Block, Dodge, Tackle, Guard and Pro.
(Block is relevant for both attacker and defender, Dodge and Guard are relevant for defender, and Tackle and Pro are relevant for the
attacker)
One formula should return the chance of pushback, the other should return the chance of Defender Knocked Over.
YOUR help is needed - thanks in advance |
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Kommando
Joined: Dec 08, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 12:52 |
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look... im not gonna sit here and calculate a LOT but i can tell you how to do it...
there are 6 possible different outcomes on the dice, each with an equal probability of 1:6 (assuming the client is random  )
if two of these 6 possible events have an equal result due to skills or as because it is pushback you treat it as one event with a higher probability (i.e. 2:6 which equals 1:3 for two or 3:6 = 1:2 for three equal events).
this gives you the probability for a single dice roll. to add two or three dice blocks simply take the probability of the first roll to fail (only in this case you actually need the second one), and multiply it with the probability of the first roll to get the desired result and add that to probability of the first roll.
which is a lot easier that it sounds. for example you want to know what's the probability of having heads up on a coin when trying twice. the initial probability is 1:2 since there is one positive outcome out of two equally likely outcomes. which translates to 0,5 out of 1. 0,5 (initial probability) * 0,5 (probability for it not to work)= 0,25. add that to the original 0,5 and you get 0,75, ie 3:4. in three out of four cases this will work. |
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AeoN2
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 13:14 |
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I did some calculation on MB a while back, and the numbers almost, but not quite match the ones above... I'll show you my calculations... (I'll put in the numbers for non MB too, but they are so simple I won't bother with the calculations)
AV7+MB
First there is AV break: 15/36 chance for no break, 6/36 for break using MB, and 15/36 chance for clean break.
Injury: If MB was used, then there is 6/36 for a casualty. If it was saved then there is a 10/36 chance for casualty.
This gives the probability: 0 (chance of cas without armor breaking) + 6/36 * 6/36 (chance for cas with mb used for AV) + 15/36 * 10/36 (MB used for injury) which gives 31/216 = 14,4% (compared to 5/72 = 6,9% without MB)
AV 8+MB
same calculation, but different probabilities for armor breakage:
5/36 * 6/36 + 10/36 * 10/36 which gives 65/648 = 10,0% (compared to 4,6% without MB)
AV 9+MB
same calculation, but different probabilities for armor breakage:
[ 4/36 * 1/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 which gives 4/81 = 4,9% (compared to 2,8% without MB) ]
Correction:
4/36 * 6/26 + 6/36 * 10/ 36 = 7/108 = 6.481% ~ 6%
Anyone want to go over those numbers to double check my math, feel free...
--
AeoN2
[edit: added 0 probability for no av break for clarity, and one misprint] |
Last edited by AeoN2 on %b %30, %2004 - %21:%Jan; edited 1 time in total |
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