Trog
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Jan 30, 2004 - 14:01 |
 
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VoidSeer
Joined: Jan 29, 2004
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2004 - 14:50 |
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| Quote: | same calculation, but different probabilities for armor breakage:
4/36 * 1/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 which gives 4/81 = 4,9% (compared to 2,8% without MB) |
Wrong here: Chances of cas when mighty blow is used on armor roll is 6/36 and not 1/36. so the correct formula is
4/36 * 6/26 + 6/36 * 10/ 36 = 7/108 = 6.481% ~ 6% (same result as I posted).
Statistics are not useful for sure. But being I old time RPG fan, I understand percentages way better than 36th 
Besides, if you play with JavaBowl stats are useless ! |
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Mostly-Harmless
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 15:28 |
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| Kommando wrote: |
this gives you the probability for a single dice roll. to add two or three dice blocks simply take the probability of the first roll to fail (only in this case you actually need the second one), and multiply it with the probability of the first roll to get the desired result and add that to probability of the first roll.
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Do I need extra treatment for the case that the defender chooses the dice? I am not sure how to handle this. |
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Kommando
Joined: Dec 08, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 19:39 |
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pretty much the same way: use the same method to find out the probability of all events that you don't want (i.e. if you want to know how likely it is to get POW or Both go down with two dice against you take 4:6) and deduct it from 1. in this case it would be:
0,667+0,333*0,667=approx. 0,889.
1-0,889=0,11
1:9
(i guess 1/3*1/3 would have been possible too  ) |
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Myrdin
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 20:03 |
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I used stats like these to calc the cas rating of old POstr4 against av7 contra MB against av7.
Wich made me realize I would rather play against old POstr4 with my WE than against MB teams. |
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Severian
Joined: Dec 12, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 21:16 |
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| Kommando wrote: | | and you get 0,75, ie 3:4. in three out of four cases this will work. |
Nice job Kommando. I grew up looking at it more visually. Like this.
Possible outcomes for 2 flips of a coin in a row:
Sequence 1: T T
Sequence 2: T H
Sequence 3: H T
Sequence 4: H H
Three out of four of these sequences contain a heads (H) result, so the chances of flipping a heads once in two flips is 3:4.
In any case I think the most important idea is that even though every result on a die is completely independent of the previous roll, you must view the series as a whole and calculate all possible results to find the odds of executing a string of blood bowl actions (such as dodging into no tackle zones with an AG of 4, THEN picking up the ball, THEN going for it twice).
In that case your way is easier to do. |
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AeoN2
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 30, 2004 - 21:36 |
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| VoidSeer wrote: |
Wrong here: Chances of cas when mighty blow is used on armor roll is 6/36 and not 1/36. so the correct formula is
4/36 * 6/26 + 6/36 * 10/ 36 = 7/108 = 6.481% ~ 6% (same result as I posted).
Statistics are not useful for sure. But being I old time RPG fan, I understand percentages way better than 36th
Besides, if you play with JavaBowl stats are useless ! |
You're absolutely right... my own fault for not reducing 6/36 to 1/6 everytime I had a chance... Entered your corrected formula in my post now...
I'm a RPG fan too, hence my obsession with stats too
(the other day I calculated percent chances for particular ability scores when rolling 4d6 dropping lowest, 5d6 dropping 2 lowest and 6d6 dropping 3 lowest... talk about stats only of special interest)
Why do you feel stats are useless for JavaBowl? stats like these helps to decide which skills to chose when, how skills help spp progression and so on...
--
AeoN2 |
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Danisheraser
Joined: Jan 26, 2004
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Feb 01, 2004 - 01:55 |
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Jesus, what the hell does this change?? "Dont play an av 6 or av 7 team"?
Hahaha, well when I play a game I dont think about the odds when it comes to injuries. We can talk odds when it comes to block dice, but injuries? In some way I do agree with AeoNs post, but the odds shouldn't really matter when it comes to how your team should be made. Take skills that suits your gameplay and have fun |
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VoidSeer
Joined: Jan 29, 2004
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Feb 02, 2004 - 08:07 |
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| Quote: | | Why do you feel stats are useless for JavaBowl? stats like these helps to decide which skills to chose when, how skills help spp progression and so on... |
Because I have the feeling that sometimes the random function goes crazy. I often have 6 or 7 '1' in a row.
| Quote: | | Jesus, what the hell does this change?? "Dont play an av 6 or av 7 team"? |
Well, being new to the game, stats help me understand it better. For instance, knowing I was playing an Amazon team, I chose Dirty Player for a Welf lino and fouled everytime I had a chance cause the odds of outnumbering my opponent were fair.
Knowing the odds helps me figure out how many assists I need when fouling and so on. |
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slackman
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 03, 2004 - 03:10 |
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well, here's the funny thing about random numbers. they are determined based upon PROBABILITY, not ODDS. the difference is, if you roll 6 1s in a row, you are just as likely to roll a 7th 1 as any other number. the odds are meaningless here, they simply are not used. one thing i find particularly interesting is the median value of a 2d6 and how often it comes up. a total of 7 should be rolled 1/6 of the time you roll two dice, but i find this occurance to be really rather rare. although the total of all dice rolled at the end of the game will likely be close to 3.5 (half of 7 on half the dice) the actual rolling of 7s is disportionately rare. unless you're rolling on the kickoff table |
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