ahalfling
Joined: Aug 16, 2008
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Nov 28, 2008 - 20:00 |
 
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While I would agree in principle, if that were happening, I have to question the team you linked to support your concerns. As the stats show, it's simply not an unusually violent team, skills or no skills... it's averaging only 2.9 casualties per game. That's not low by any means, but it's not incredibly high. (They've also taken 2.2 casualties per game, if that contributes to BBR.)
Those numbers haven't changed much with skill increases, either -- in their last ten games, they've averaged 3.3 casualties. They've been out-casualtied in three of those ten games, led in five, and tied two. They've also averaged only 2.1 fouls, which would seem to throw a certain amount of question onto your categorization of them as "built on... Dirty Player." They may have it, but they sure don't seem to use it much...
So you've got a team which is slightly more violent than average, but not by much -- certainly not by more than you'd expect for dwarfs, a race which kind of has to do some hitting in order to get anywhere. Meanwhile, they have a decidedly below-.500 record. They're also one of the highest-TS teams in the league.
Which brings me to the reason I suspect they've seen some unbalanced games of late -- it's not a matter of the fact that they're getting "voluntarily" put into slightly unbalanced matchups by the scheduler. They've certainly played some even matches of late -- three of their last five:
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&op=view&id=2437706
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&op=view&id=2437624
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&op=view&id=2437672
So it's not that the scheduler will only put them in matches where they're up TS.
I think the issue which hinders the scheduler here is that the coach only has one team. And the scheduler, which is bound to match up as many coaches as possible, has to put these dwarves against SOMETHING. And maybe there's an even team, and that's a good matchup. And maybe there's a slightly lower-TS team with a good record and casualty differential, and the scheduler probably likes that matchup too. But probably, as often as not, there IS no team that's a really good match. There may only be one or two other teams above 180-190 TS in the draw. So if none of those teams is a really good match, what does the scheduler do then?
Well, what should the scheduler do then?
If you don't schedule the team, you don't schedule the coach. Which seems fair enough by me in the case of draws with odd numbers of coaches -- the coach who's left out is the one who has given the scheduler the most difficulty in finding an even match-up (by submitting only one team at an awkward size), and the one whose omission keeps the remaining matchups the most even. I'm not sure how the scheduler chooses who's left out in those situations, but if that's taken into account, that's cool by me.
But if you have an even number, not scheduling the dwarves means you don't schedule someone else, and that's rather more problematic. So there's a good chance -- I didn't program the thing, but I'm betting this is how it works -- that if there's a match for those dwarves, the scheduler will make it, even if it's a bit less than ideal.
Really, I'm not sure how huge a deal this is... the number of coaches who are going to run only one team over an extended series of games is always going to be small, and may eventually get smaller. A 15-TS differential is far from insurmountable at that level. And the number of teams above 200 TS will definitely increase with time, so it probably won't be as hard to find a game for these dwarves and their ilk.
Meanwhile, what could you do to stop it -- tighten the TR differential rules even further? The only thing I could imagine is if you required coaches to put a certain minimum number of teams into the box, and while I wouldn't personally be opposed to that, it doesn't sound like the kind of rule that would actually go through. |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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Nov 28, 2008 - 20:10 |
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ahalfling: Really thorough analysis there. Good work!  |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Nov 28, 2008 - 21:26 |
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Well here is my postive thought for the day. If the ballers keep having to play up in TR\TS then maybe just maybe it will show these elfballers that they can succedd and win against "tougher" teams on a consitant basis. And hopefully when they look on the Ranked Gamefinder start taking these matchups because they now "know" and have confidence that they can win those games. Instead of the normal No Thanks and off they go.
The big question to me is once we get a lot of teams over TR225 in the Box, lets say 150 teams, what will the racial breakdown look like. I still suspect it will mirror ranked play and diversity that the Box is supposed to bring will go by the wayside. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Nov 28, 2008 - 21:49 |
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Mattybee
Joined: Mar 22, 2007
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Nov 28, 2008 - 22:29 |
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| PainState wrote: | | The big question to me is once we get a lot of teams over TR225 in the Box, lets say 150 teams, what will the racial breakdown look like. I still suspect it will mirror ranked play and diversity that the Box is supposed to bring will go by the wayside. |
Of course it will. That's because some teams are inherently easier to sustain at high TRs than others.
Try playing orcs at 225TR for 10 games.
Now try playing norse at 225TR for 10 games.
Then tell me which one has the higher TR at the end.  |
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Ash
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
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Nov 29, 2008 - 00:27 |
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I dunno if the scheduler is taking into account the "will to win" of each opponment.
Ex:
team 1: record 14/3/5
team 2: record 4/5/10
team 3: record 11/3/6
team 4: record 0/4/15
if each team is of the same race, has the same TR/STR, will the scheduler match team 1 with team 3 everytime or can you get team 1 vs team 4 even if they obviously ain t playing the same game? |
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Ash |
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Tinkywinky
Joined: Aug 25, 2003
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Nov 29, 2008 - 00:56 |
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Assuming that each team is coached by a different coach and all other things are equal coach 1 & 3 will have a lot higher BR that the others and therefor be a better match. |
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Do you play ranked and wonder where all the good coaches are? Are you also from Sweden? Then join the Swedish league! |
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DukeTyrion
Joined: Feb 18, 2004
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Nov 29, 2008 - 01:47 |
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The thing that i am not sure about is, since BR and BBR are part of the same formula, will a coach with a high win low bash rating, be matched aganst a team with a low win high bash rating?
My rats, which have high negative casualites, keep meeting 4 DP Khemri that are there to do damage. So, is my high BR matching their high BBR?
If -BR * +BBR is not to different to +BR * -BBR, then maybe I need to get my BBR up, so I no longer meet them game after game  |
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