chunky04
Joined: Aug 11, 2003
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 Posted:
Apr 23, 2004 - 00:39 |
 
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I figured a post where people can post the chances of obscure things in Blood Bowl that they've worked out would be cool, and maybe even useful.
First up:
Chances of Hail Mary landing close enough for a player with Diving Catch to attempt to catch it: 47%
Chances for a player without Diving Catch: 1/32 |
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BloodRunners
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 01:04 |
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I got about 1 in 21 for player without diving catch. I have actually 24/512 for player without diving catch |
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slackman
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 01:10 |
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topeka, kansass? who do i know from a few years back that was living in topeka... |
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ozjesting
Joined: Jan 27, 2004
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Apr 23, 2004 - 01:17 |
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I reckon the odds go UP if the team attempting it will win the game on such a play...assuming it is not you...and of course the odds plummet if you need the play to work to save the game.  |
_________________
Say GO AWAY to CuddleBunny! |
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Covertfun
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 01:30 |
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Here's one that I thought was pretty clear, but someone reckons I'm wrong so let's work it out:
the chance of succeeding a 4+ when you have a reroll is 75%.
someone said they got closer to 67% from avoiding the assumption of initial failure, but the simple way to do it is this:
*You can either succeed or fail.
**Therefore, to succeed, you need only to not fail.
***The chance of failure is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25, (1-3, reroll, 1-3)
****so the chance of success is 1.00 - 0.25 = 0.75
There are other ways of calculating this sort of thing, but this is the easiest. It is also handy for any other single procedure with a reroll. A string of things with one "floating" team reroll - that's a bit tougher, I'll see how clear that can ever be
Incidentally, there is another forum post somewhere with lots of % probabilities on it, but I heartily support this one for actual discussion instead of just a table of numbers 
give a man fish, teach a man to fish, etc. etc.  |
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chunky04
Joined: Aug 11, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 01:49 |
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I only got 16/512, though I do admit I didn't take furth scatter after it lands into account, which would add some more. |
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chunky - you are eloquence on legs |
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BloodRunners
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 02:09 |
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I didn't take further scatter either, just three scatters. the first scatter, you have 0 chance of it landing in your sqaure.
x= your square
111
1x1
111
The ball must land in one square around you. The next scatter is trickier
12321
22422
34842.....................in this graph, you are the 8
22422
12321
all we really care about is the squares next to the center, because they are the only way the ball can scatter back to you so look at this
242
4x4...........The ball will end up in a sqaure next to you 24 times after only two scatters. Each of those time will scatter the
242...........ball back to you only once. This is how I come up with 24. The 512 is just 8*8*8 (and we agree on this) |
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RandomOracle
Joined: Jan 11, 2004
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Apr 23, 2004 - 10:03 |
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What I did a while ago was to calculate the possibiliy of causing an injury with various skills using Excel. Of course, I noticed afterwards that Ian Williams had already done pretty much the same thing on his website. One useful thing that I noticed is that RSC gives you a better chance of causing a casualty than Claw against AV 8 and lower, but Claw gives you a better chance of removing a player from the pitch with either a KO or casualty and a much better chance of causing a stun. |
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dertre
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 10:30 |
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[quote="Covertfun"]Here's one that I thought was pretty clear, but someone reckons I'm wrong so let's work it out:
the chance of succeeding a 4+ when you have a reroll is 75%.
someone said they got closer to 67% from avoiding the assumption of initial failure, but the simple way to do it is this:
*You can either succeed or fail.
**Therefore, to succeed, you need only to not fail.
***The chance of failure is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25, (1-3, reroll, 1-3)
****so the chance of success is 1.00 - 0.25 = 0.75
*You can either succeed or fail.
**Therefore, to fail, you need only to not succeed.
***The chance of succes is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25, (4-6, reroll, 4-6)
****so the chance of failure is 1.00 - 0.25 = 0.75
LOL |
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RandomOracle
Joined: Jan 11, 2004
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Apr 23, 2004 - 10:36 |
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| dertre wrote: |
*You can either succeed or fail.
**Therefore, to fail, you need only to not succeed.
***The chance of succes is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25, (4-6, reroll, 4-6)
****so the chance of failure is 1.00 - 0.25 = 0.75
LOL |
Obviously not true, as you don't need to reroll a successful roll.
The chance of succeeding right away: 0.5 (4-6)
The chance of succeeding with a reroll: 0.5 (1-3) x 0.5 (4-6) = 0.25
Total chance of success: 0.5 + 0.25 = 0.75 |
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Grod
Joined: Sep 30, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 10:46 |
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Probability that an opposing coach will get upset if you foul his players ... 70%
Probability that opposing coach will apologise after killing one of your players ... 60%
Probability that you will accept given apology ... 0%
Probability that spectators are laughing at your stupid moves in a given bloodbowl game ... 15%
Percentage of statistics that are made up on the spot ... 75% |
_________________
I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.
Oscar Wilde |
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odi
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 11:07 |
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I got the HMP to land within diving catch 254/512, but then again. I'm sometimes wrong |
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DoubleSkulls
Joined: Oct 05, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 11:24 |
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Perox
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 12:12 |
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About chances:
<i>Do or do not. There is no try.</i> 
Blessed be Nuffl! (and Yoda). |
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cthol
Joined: Nov 10, 2003
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Apr 23, 2004 - 13:17 |
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HAIL MARY PASS:
well, i got 240 out of 512 for a player with diving catch to reach the ball, which is 46.875 %. the ball will land on the player's actual square 24 times out of 512... which is 4.6875%. So you're 10 times more likely to receive the ball with diving catch - that's pretty sweet:) If Diving Catch can be used even if the player can't reach the ball (ie if it is two squares away), and my reading of the skill is that it can, then you can also use the skill to gain a tz on the ball even if you don't reach it. This brings in another 168 out of 512: which is a further 32.8125%. In short, there is only a 104/512 chance that the ball will land so far away that you have NO chance to even get a tz on it, which is just over 1/5, or 20.3125%. phew...
NOW... what if you have 2 catchers, 1 square apart, on the same rank or file, and you aim the ball at the square between them? your chances of getting it to a square they can dive to goes up to 312/540, or almost 61%, and the chance of the ball landing too far away to get a tz falls to less than 10%... ok, brain hurts now... |
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