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JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 16:44 Reply with quote Back to top

So, this has probably been discussed before, but, according to this data, the elven teams seem to be winning far fewer FUMBBL majors in CRP than they were back in the days of LRB4. I'm struggling to understand why this is.

I get that we now have the CPOMB/TPOMB killstack; however, I would argue that elves should be more competitive in high-TV tourneys now than they have ever been:


  • With journeymen, gone are the days when an elf team only has 6 elves to field at the start of a match. Now they have unlimited, free LOS fodder.

  • The inducements system is much better than the old handicaps for making up gaps in TV. Any elf team that is down on TV can now take a wizard and/or Eldril Sidewinder and start fireballing/hypnotizing cages. (in LRB4, you had to have cash saved in the treasury for a wiz)

  • I would argue that elf teams are the best equipped to cope with the killstack (of the teams that don't have it). With blanket blodge, they can disengage more effectively than other teams, making 3-4 CPOMBers somewhat redundant, as only one can blitz per turn. Also, a blodging line-elf is the perfect player to tie up a CPOMBer that doesn't have tackle.

  • Elves have always been the best teams at coping with being down on players anyway. So what if they're down a handful, when they can pull off one-turn TDs and magic plays with only 5 or 6 stars?


The only conclusions I can come to as to why elves aren't doing well in majors are the following:


  • Top coaches aren't using them - they see killstack as an easier/safer option. Now the bashers can have their cake and eat it - they can kill and win tourneys at the same time.

  • The nerfing of DP has made it harder for elves to hit back against the hitters and take out key players (although, fouling was never a plan A elf strategy anyway)

  • The prevalence of Nurgle, with their disturbing presence is cutting out the elven passing option.

  • Bad luck? Low sample size?


Is there anything I'm missing here?

(btw, if anyone can tell me how to make a bullet list in BBcode, I'd appreciate it!) Smile

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Last edited by JellyBelly on Apr 02, 2016 - 16:58; edited 2 times in total
Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 16:52 Reply with quote Back to top

I'm not sure Elves are performing that badly. Do you have any statistics about it?
kilinrax



Joined: Jan 12, 2015

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 16:52 Reply with quote Back to top

[ list ]
[ * ]
[ * ]
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[ /list ]

Only without the spaces
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 16:56 Reply with quote Back to top

@Wreckage: if the data I linked to in the first sentence is accurate, elven teams have won 15% of FUMBBL majors in CRP, compared with 35% in LRB4. That's a pretty big change! (I think Brainsaw posted that data in a thread a few months ago)

@kilinrax: cheers! Smile

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Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 17:09 Reply with quote Back to top

JellyBelly wrote:
@Wreckage: if the data I linked to in the first sentence is accurate, elven teams have won 15% of FUMBBL majors in CRP, compared with 35% in LRB4. That's a pretty big change!

I'd say the amount of samples in both cases is too low to draw any meaningful conclusion from it.
The LRB4 years weren't exactly homogenous either. If you look at the specific winners you'll notice for instance that Elven teams are particularly rare in Blackbox and haven't won many tournaments there yet. By now almost half of the majors run in Blackbox while in LRB4 times for a long time Blackbox didn'T even exist. And when it did exist didn't always host majors.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 17:26 Reply with quote Back to top

"•The inducements system is much better than the old handicaps for making up gaps in TV. Any elf team that is down on TV can now take a wizard and/or Eldril Sidewinder and start fireballing/hypnotizing cages. (in LRB4, you had to have cash saved in the treasury for a wiz) "

Maybe, just maybe, is it not possible that elf rosters are not as good bargains as the others, and the proper inducements actually hinders their chances?

My feeling is that most elven player is not worth the TV compared to other alternatives.

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Rags



Joined: Nov 09, 2008

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 17:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Hello, Thanks for very interesting post. I think you make good points, but exaggerate a bit.

Journeymen do help elven teams survive and make them far more competitive in the medium-long run, but this is far from ' unlimited, free LOS fodder'. By definition the more journeymen, the weaker the team, so having 3 - 4 journeymen is really nothing to shout about. And they can get removed very swiftly anyway, so the situation of having to expose important players, while not as chronic, can still definitely be a problem.

On the inducements, yes can make a difference, and a good blast from a wizard can make the difference between victory and defeat. But this isn't quite a license to 'start fireballing', blazing away. You get one shot, and it's in way reliable. If gets lucky great, but just as likely to have little impact. In my experience, a lightning bolt against quick teams on the break is a much more reliable game-changer.

Again, not having or nitpicking. I think you've mostly right.
the_Sage



Joined: Jan 13, 2011

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 17:50 Reply with quote Back to top

Maybe part of it is because people are suddenly winning majors with vamps, humans, and lizards? Wink

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Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 18:13 Reply with quote Back to top

Reviwing the stats again: Perhaps it isn't so much that Elves have gotten worse, but that CPOMB is incredibly good?
ArrestedDevelopment



Joined: Sep 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 18:18 Reply with quote Back to top

That table is missing a lot of contextual variables that make this question near impossible to answer if you're simply looking to explain the difference between the values it presents. (Such as who was coaching the elves, what were the tournament draws, what %of said tournaments comprised elvish teams, etc etc). That said...

Journeymen, in my opinion, aren't actually really that relevant to tournament play on fumbbl, since the majority of teams will want to be playing at as high a tv as possible without becoming overtly inefficient - simply put, having "LOS fodder" you don't care about as JM is utterly meaningless when you may also be behind an insurmountable volume of skills, and are now lumbered with X players you cannot reliably use a reroll for and are skill-less themselves.

The inducement system is now better but it doesn't really bridge large gaps, except in cases where it is coupled with exceptional coaching. I would also add anecdotally that the vast majority of the time I have seen an Elvish team induce both Eldril and a Wizard and have that directly lead to victory, they have been playing against other Elves. This is in part due to Elvish teams normally being high tv themselves, both due high base cost of players and the +stats and doubles normally seen as "required" to have a chance of winning the tournament.

Sure blanket blodge works well against CPOMB. But tournament draws aren't just CPOMB vs agility. In tournaments, Elves are also removing themselves, facing Slann, facing zons, vamps, lizards etc. In a lot of cases coached by highly skilled coaches looking to either unforlorn or fulfil personal goals. Coaches who may have in the past previously coached Elves in majors and know exactly how to play against them. Without actually going back and looking at them all I wouldn't be able to say for certain, but I'd be willing to bet that the draws during CRP are a lot more varied than under LRB4.

In addition, even the CPOMB teams that tend to go deep into majors these days usually have additional skills - tentacles/DP on nurgle, tacklespam on cdorfs etc. The "Cpomber without tackle" isn't something you're likely to see late in a tournament unless it's because he's the only one left in a decimated squad.

Lastly - OTTD aren't a sole Elven providence, and they also require the right players to still be available, suitable dice, and defensive formation that allows them to proceed. Even a natural one-turner isn't something you can bet on for a whole tournament as every single team you face is going to be attempting to kill him, eventually one may prevail. Likewise for playing short-handed - you may very well be able to win a game shorthanded, but repeatedly doing so, especially if the injuries sustained are permanent is a task that can become progressively insurmountable.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 19:35 Reply with quote Back to top

Wreckage wrote:
Reviwing the stats again: Perhaps it isn't so much that Elves have gotten worse, but that CPOMB is incredibly good?


Perhaps it is also that TPOMB is better than CPOMB against Wood elves and Pro Elfs and CPOMB is only slightly better (5/36) to break AV against AV8 Elves.

IMHO Elves biggest problem in CRP is that the tackle teams under CRP now also have PO. IE. Humans, dorfs, zon, undead, khemri and on and on..you know the tweener races that had it rough in LRB4.

Those tweener teams are now actually competing in majors instead of being bystanders.

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PeteW



Joined: Aug 05, 2005

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 20:02 Reply with quote Back to top

Two reasons from me. I won 3 elf majors in lrb4 and none in crp.

1. Spiralling expenses and winnings. It used to be easy to make money if you won a lot of games as you would have a big fan factor. Now, elven teams find it tough to amass a large reserve to replace players. Even with journeymen, starting with 11 doesn't compare to having 14 on your roster.

2. Inducements. I hate inducements. The old handicap system was better, as it helped, but didn't lift an underdog to an overdog. In lrb4 you could save a big war chest and buy a wizzie every game. It is not realistic in crp.

The powergamer in me longs for lrb4!

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 20:19 Reply with quote Back to top

I will take PeteW's thoughts as spot on.

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JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 20:26 Reply with quote Back to top

Wow - lots of very interesting comments here!

Wreckage wrote:
I'd say the amount of samples in both cases is too low to draw any meaningful conclusion from it.
The LRB4 years weren't exactly homogenous either. If you look at the specific winners you'll notice for instance that Elven teams are particularly rare in Blackbox and haven't won many tournaments there yet. By now almost half of the majors run in Blackbox while in LRB4 times for a long time Blackbox didn'T even exist. And when it did exist didn't always host majors.


I agree the sample size is fairly low and I think quite a few elf teams have reached finals in CRP, but gotten pipped at the last hurdle. If I can find some time, I might try to compile some stats on how many elf teams have reached finals between LRB4/CRP (both the finals tourney and the actual final game).

Your other point is interesting as well. More majors are held in the Blackbox now, where it is not as easy to pimp up elf teams.

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Last edited by JellyBelly on Apr 02, 2016 - 20:36; edited 1 time in total
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 02, 2016 - 20:33 Reply with quote Back to top

the_Sage wrote:
Maybe part of it is because people are suddenly winning majors with vamps, humans, and lizards? Wink


This is a good point and I think maybe it relates to Painstate's comment as well, regarding TPOMB. Perhaps now, these 'tweener' races are more competitive against elves than they used to be? I have to agree that, when I'm playing with my elf teams, CPOMB doesn't really bother me, but I am much more worried about TPOMB, which now any old dwarf can have with two normal skills ..

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