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Desultory



Joined: Jun 24, 2008

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 12:38 Reply with quote Back to top

zakatan wrote:

I was toying with the stats and I have to conceed you a point here. Chaos have a poor winrate at the rookie stage (1000-1100 TV) of 45% in R and 48% in B. I don't know how much of this stat is contaminated by minmaxers in B.

Still, they are in the realm of Tier 2 rookie teams (slann, high elves, underworld, nurgle...) with a 45~50 winrate, and far above the usual Tier 3 suspects (ogres, goblins, halflings, vampires) that reside at the ~35% winrate.

Oddly enough, they only get a positive winrate above 1600 in B and 1800TV in B, and it's not so hot (51% R and 54% B at >1800TV).

In comparison, all Elven races have ~60% winrates at >1800TV.


How did you get this race win rate % at different TV's?
I'm really interested in this.
Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 13:07 Reply with quote Back to top

Desultory wrote:
Wreckage wrote:

They are not. On the top of my head I can't think of a race that starts out weaker. Halflings can beat them.
Ogres probably too.. .


Usually I hang on your every blood bowl word, but Rookie Halflings stronger than rookie chaos. That seems unlikely to me.


Look, there is a simple logic to these things. It's quite obvious really.

Skills like Block or Dodge help more than any stat. They basically do similar things and have strong extra effects.

But as a team grows all the teams get those powerful stats relatively cheap and suddenly having them isn't a huge advantage anymore.
Then suddenly stats start to become important. Because you can't gain them easily. Either not at all or at very high cost.

Halflings are not bad in terms of starting skills. They just have no potential to be developed since they not only have poor stats, they also cannot gain a single premium skill through skill access. (The only premium skill from agility category is Dodge and they already start with that.)

Chaos is on the opposite end. Its stats are not only relatively good with 4 st4 players, considerable speed and agility 3 on everyone, it also has non double access to an entirely unaccessible skill category... plus the two strongest skill categories. But nothing in terms of skills. It takes a long time to up some to their game and the process raised their TV a lot. Zakatan massively overrates them and there is good reason why they are listed among the teams that are difficult to handle.

As a result they have the biggest growth potential and one of the weakest starts.

And yes Flings do have the upper hand in a rookie game between those two. I'd certainly recommend to you to seek out Chaos teams if you want to start a fling team. I've done these matches often enough.
Chainsaw



Joined: Aug 31, 2005

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 13:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Wreckage dropping truth bombs. Plus if you start at a low enough TV you can get a chef with rookie flings and ruin starting teams by depriving them of rerolls.

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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 13:48 Reply with quote Back to top

Chainsaw wrote:
Wreckage dropping truth bombs. Plus if you start at a low enough TV you can get a chef with rookie flings and ruin starting teams by depriving them of rerolls.

That. Starting Chaos without reroll is a recipe for disaster.

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zakatan



Joined: May 17, 2008

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 13:52 Reply with quote Back to top

Desultory wrote:

How did you get this race win rate % at different TV's?
I'm really interested in this.


I think you have to thank koadah for that:

http://fumbbldata.azurewebsites.net/statssl.html

You can play with different divisions/rulesets and TV ranges.

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zakatan



Joined: May 17, 2008

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 14:03 Reply with quote Back to top

Wreckage wrote:
Zakatan massively overrates them and there is good reason why they are listed among the teams that are difficult to handle.


Didn't massively overrate anyone as far as I recall. I said they are decent (meaning not good but playable) as rooks and they have a 45% win-rate which matches quite well with the description, I believe.

On the other hand, they scale well thanks to their good base stats and skill access, but still much worse than agility races if you look at the winrate stats.

On the halfling topic, I consider them to be able to abuse some rosters early on, thanks to their blanket dodge, specially those who lack starting skills such as chaos. But having a good match-up doesn't make them a better low TV roster. They still perform horribly bad in the grand scheme of things, which is how they were intended to do.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 15:21 Reply with quote Back to top

DrDiscoStu wrote:
In perpetual leagues I would say it is very obvious that Chaos are a tier 1 side, probably #1 overall.


Hold on now, lets not get crazy around here. Laughing

As it has been pointed out, Chaos teams just keep growing in terms of TV, they rarely if ever just peak out.

WHICH

Is why Elves at very high TV have an advantage over Chaos. They get inducement money on almost every occasion. Thus they can get the wizard and babes. Those two inducements make it harder to keep elves in the KO box and the wizard if all goes well is a auto defensive Turn Over for a score.

My theory I just laid down is supported by years of majors and league play once the league moves into high TV in their group.

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Mateuszzzzzz



Joined: Feb 26, 2006

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 15:29 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
They get inducement money on almost every occasion. Thus they can get the wizard and babes.

But after wizard and babe there is not much more that they can get (except edril). Depends on tv difference if its worthy. Its usually bad to give 200, but 500?
Mr_Foulscumm



Joined: Mar 05, 2005

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 15:48 Reply with quote Back to top

Nurgz need more nerf.
Chaos need nerf.

edit:at high tv

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Uedder



Joined: Aug 03, 2010

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 17:10 Reply with quote Back to top

Depends a lot on the environment anyway I don't think of chaos as a tier 1 team, not even at high tv. Nurgle is just plain better in the long run bashwise, and chaos seriously struggle against agility teams, where their only option is mass murder. If they fail at that, they don't have the means to cope with fast, agile blodgers.
Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 17:19 Reply with quote Back to top

chaos have regular access to disturbing presence, prehensile tail, and tentacles...all quite good at containing elves for very affordable TV price.

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Lorebass



Joined: Jun 25, 2010

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 17:27
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Another thing I think for chaos is the how much better they can get with stat increases. As none of them are Agility 2 they can benefit the most from virtually all of the mutations and doubles(jump up/dodge for example) compared to any of the other mutation races. Throw the odd stat in and ST 5 tents, agility 4, 2 headed 5+ dodges/bighand-pickups.

Plus they ALL have GS access! I'd call chaos mid tier rookies since no block but the beastmen are cheap for st4 GS access with a st4 blitz option every turn.

On that note run with a few less Warriors and add a bench WITH 3rr. Chaos could do amazing rookie too.
Desultory



Joined: Jun 24, 2008

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 17:41 Reply with quote Back to top

zakatan wrote:
Desultory wrote:

How did you get this race win rate % at different TV's?
I'm really interested in this.


I think you have to thank koadah for that:

http://fumbbldata.azurewebsites.net/statssl.html

You can play with different divisions/rulesets and TV ranges.


Thank you Koadah, and thank you zakatan.
This is awesomeness!

I think the results may be more interesting if there was a drop down for coach TR as well. Wink Wink
But I'm not complaining at all. The results are really interesting.
Desultory



Joined: Jun 24, 2008

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 17:50 Reply with quote Back to top

Wreckage wrote:
Desultory wrote:
Wreckage wrote:

They are not. On the top of my head I can't think of a race that starts out weaker. Halflings can beat them.
Ogres probably too.. .


Usually I hang on your every blood bowl word, but Rookie Halflings stronger than rookie chaos. That seems unlikely to me.


Look, there is a simple logic to these things. It's quite obvious really.

Skills like Block or Dodge help more than any stat. They basically do similar things and have strong extra effects.

But as a team grows all the teams get those powerful stats relatively cheap and suddenly having them isn't a huge advantage anymore.
Then suddenly stats start to become important. Because you can't gain them easily. Either not at all or at very high cost.

Halflings are not bad in terms of starting skills. They just have no potential to be developed since they not only have poor stats, they also cannot gain a single premium skill through skill access. (The only premium skill from agility category is Dodge and they already start with that.)

Chaos is on the opposite end. Its stats are not only relatively good with 4 st4 players, considerable speed and agility 3 on everyone, it also has non double access to an entirely unaccessible skill category... plus the two strongest skill categories. But nothing in terms of skills. It takes a long time to up some to their game and the process raised their TV a lot. Zakatan massively overrates them and there is good reason why they are listed among the teams that are difficult to handle.

As a result they have the biggest growth potential and one of the weakest starts.

And yes Flings do have the upper hand in a rookie game between those two. I'd certainly recommend to you to seek out Chaos teams if you want to start a fling team. I've done these matches often enough.


I think zakatan said this in other words already.
Rookie Haflings may have the edge vs Rookie Chaos in a matcup, but that doesn't mean that Rookie Halflings have the cumulartive edge, over all the other race rookie matchups, in comparison to Rookie chaos.
In my opinion rookie chaos are clearly better.
And this: http://fumbbldata.azurewebsites.net/statssl.html
'proves' it?
Rookie chaos win rate = 47.82%
Rookie halfling win rate = 32.35%


Surely one doesn't need to look much further than these statistics to define what is 'tier 1' and when...
Chaos don't seem to get higher than 54.59% even at high TV's, so depending what the definition of tier 1 is, I would say they never reach the premier division, but they are probably division 1 at high TV's, and slightly below average at low TV's.
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 18:12 Reply with quote Back to top

zakatan wrote:
Wreckage wrote:
zakatan wrote:
I actually think that Chaos are decent from the get-go

They are not. On the top of my head I can't think of a race that starts out weaker. Halflings can beat them.
Ogres probably too.. .


I was toying with the stats and I have to conceed you a point here. Chaos have a poor winrate at the rookie stage (1000-1100 TV) of 45% in R and 48% in B. I don't know how much of this stat is contaminated by minmaxers in B.

Still, they are in the realm of Tier 2 rookie teams (slann, high elves, underworld, nurgle...) with a 45~50 winrate, and far above the usual Tier 3 suspects (ogres, goblins, halflings, vampires) that reside at the ~35% winrate.

Oddly enough, they only get a positive winrate above 1600 in B and 1800TV in B, and it's not so hot (51% R and 54% B at >1800TV).

In comparison, all Elven races have ~60% winrates at >1800TV.


I wonder how much of this is due to some coaches self selecting for Chaos as a shortcut to try and win games through CAS. I've played more than my fair share of Chaos coaches in B that aren't so tough if the first 4 blocks of the game don't result in KO+.
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