12 coaches online • Server time: 06:22
Forum Chat
Log in
Recent Forum Topics goto Post Secret League Old Wo...goto Post Creating a custom to...goto Post ramchop takes on the...
SearchSearch 
Post new topic   Reply to topic
View previous topic Log in to check your private messages View next topic
licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Jan 14, 2017 - 00:12 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
licker wrote:
If you define tiers that way then I think you can come up with a reasonable list. It's still limited (obviously) to being designed with the goal of winning a string of games rather than some general win%.



Ok, lets step back. Win % of the large population of FUMBBL is one thing.

You could argue that the large win % of, lets say, Wood Elfs, comes in a open environment they can pick matches. Further more those matches have no meaning.

League and Tournament play is different. In that environment all you can look at is which races have won the most. Which races, based on stats, go farther in these closed environment's. Then if your goal is to win a tournament/league in a closed environment, which race should I choose? The R/B stats I posted earlier should hold true.


Well I usually don't bother to quote stats from R for that reason. B should be blind enough to give you confidence that your numbers are not being affected by something else.

Another thing to consider at least for L, is that alot of them place limits on races, or, already have established some number of teams, so new coaching joining would consider that meta rather than what an open division would look like meta wise. If a league has a lot of big M teams then no one with a serious goal of winning that league is going to play orcs or dwarfs for example. So selection, and even results, are biased due to the effects of the existing meta.

If you want to pick the 'best' team to win a league or tournament with, part of the equation is in figuring out what the meta of that environment is and then choosing something which is stronger in it. Maybe that doesn't apply to tournaments that much, but it still depends on how they are set up.

Still, getting the information you are curious about will provide you with a better understanding of what the win rates look like, even if you don't try to control for every possible bias in that data.
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Jan 14, 2017 - 00:17 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:
Again, I think part of the issue with looking at just league champions is that the ability of the coaches matters so much, so the limited number of data points per coach affects your results.



Well this holds true in R/B tournaments of every level, not just league play.

Furthermore these top 1% coaches when we see them rear their ugly heads and dominating a Major are also playing top Tier teams.

I cannot find Azure winning a R/B major with Humans/slann/undead/khemri..... No, he goes with Dwarfs or Skaven.

Top Tier Coaches, when they are serious on winning only play 4 races. Lets be honest.

** Edit **

Just in case you are wondering out there.

If you are top 5% coach with the goal in mind to dominate a league or win a lot of R/B majors/minors/Smacks/Brawls.

Play

Dark Elves
Wood Elves
Orcs
Nurgle

As long as you are good as you think you are, you will do well just playing those 4 races.

If you are feeling froggy and want it to look like you are challenged, play.

Dwarfs
Chaos Dwarf
Or
Skaven

** Final Edit **

Those are the Tier 1 teams in R/B and L.

_________________
Comish of the: Image


Last edited by PainState on Jan 14, 2017 - 00:30; edited 5 times in total
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jan 14, 2017 - 00:19 Reply with quote Back to top

To wit, you could argue that League meta might also not create incentives for winning certain games and have meta objectives that often become more important than winning. In NBFL I took the last game of the season to beat Jeffro's team to a pulp (didn't work) rather than try to win because a win wouldnt have put me in the playoffs. But taking out some of his players permanently would have knock on effects for him in the playoffs and later in the next season.
licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Jan 14, 2017 - 00:22 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
licker wrote:
Again, I think part of the issue with looking at just league champions is that the ability of the coaches matters so much, so the limited number of data points per coach affects your results.



Well this holds true in R/B tournaments of every level, not just league play.

Furthermore these top 1% coaches when we see them rear their ugly heads and dominating a Major are also playing top Tier teams.

I cannot find Azure winning a R/B major with Humans/slann/undead/khemri..... No, he goes with Dwarfs or Skaven.

Top Tier Coaches, when they are serious on winning only play 4 races. Lets be honest.


Well, we probably can't go forward any more sadly. I don't know or care about tournaments, so I can't really comment on anything related to them.

If you compile the demographics of all tournaments you can at least see what the % entries are per race. You can then look at the win rates (in different TV bands depending on what you project to be the range for that tournament) and find what race has the best win rate in that meta.

Of course you then have to build that roster, and you have to be good enough to coach it past everyone else...
Wuhan



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Jan 14, 2017 - 02:05 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:
mrt1212 wrote:
licker wrote:
From 900 to 1200 Chaos have a 60% win rate vs. Halflings.

Don't believe this nonsense that Halflings are better. They are not, they are terrible in any matchup not against Ogres.

Seriously, how daft are people being?


I feel like Wreckage needs to play 100 games as flings vs. chaos to prove us wrong. Wink


It's even worse for Halfers vs. Chaos if you do a 0-1000 scrape.

Halfers are a consummate joke team. Anyone who thinks they are good at any level vs. any other team (besides Ogres who are even more of a joke) is delusional.


It used to be that halflings were indeed 'competitive' when the ol' rule was +2dp. And tv was calculated that the 1st skill for stunties did not increase tv. 3dp flings, would wipe the floor vs any team. And they would just as easily be wiped out, depending who went first.

Now, the CRP (with the exception of clawpomb) isn't so much about wipe out the other person's team to 0 players on the field. But gain a slight player advantage, a slight position advantage, and a slight point advantage, and take the 2-1win.

Flings can still win, as Zed won 5-6 qualifying cup games in a row. But they need to be Lucky, and Brilliantly coached every match.
Magicporncup



Joined: Sep 30, 2015

Post   Posted: Jul 12, 2017 - 21:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Hello. I'd like to know where to find the winrate / race / TV. Can't figure out, and i'd like ot know it for common knowledge. Thanks!
Rbthma



Joined: Jan 14, 2009

Post   Posted: Jul 12, 2017 - 22:10 Reply with quote Back to top

The answer you seek is posted on page 2 of this very post! Wink
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jul 13, 2017 - 00:34 Reply with quote Back to top

The human desire to categorize everything, no matter how meaningless, makes me laugh.
Sigmar1



Joined: Aug 13, 2008

Post   Posted: Jul 13, 2017 - 00:39 Reply with quote Back to top

Laughing at such things classifies you as a level 3 humorist.

_________________
Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges!
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jul 13, 2017 - 00:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Sigmar1 wrote:
Laughing at such things classifies you as a level 3 humorist.


I prefer to use the Sports Car method of classification. I'm an IROC Z humorist.
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jul 14, 2017 - 10:59 Reply with quote Back to top

There's obviously a lot of different situations/metas to judge by, and different teams do well in different locations

Eg low TV perpetual with blind matchmaking = minmax teams like pact can do well

You can probably declare a top 5 teams list for any environment, and then if people have that aim they can pick one of those races
Some teams will show up in many lists, because they can be good in many situations. Dark elf springs to mind

As for original query about chaos, they can be #1 in the right situation ... (replacing PO for Guard is a bit untested at high TV competitive levels so far)


I think you can't call them overall tier 1 though, because they aren't top5 in many environments
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 14, 2017 - 14:00 Reply with quote Back to top

Sp00keh wrote:

Eg low TV perpetual with blind matchmaking = minmax teams like pact can do well

In CRP sure, but with new rules and no PO minmaxing Chaos Renegades is less effective, otherwise we would see them often at low TV.
Anyway, at TV 1000 Chaos is weak, but over time it gets better and can be considered a tier 1 team indeed.
Throweck



Joined: Feb 23, 2013

Post   Posted: Jul 14, 2017 - 14:09 Reply with quote Back to top

mrt1212 wrote:
Sigmar1 wrote:
Laughing at such things classifies you as a level 3 humorist.


I prefer to use the Sports Car method of classification. I'm an IROC Z humorist.


Well that's just made the lyrics of 'Teenage Dirtbag' make sense for the first time as an Englishman who has no interest in cars. I always thought it was 'He drives and I Rock'.

Cheers. Carry on everyone.

_________________
FUMBBL Podcast Donate to the FUMBBL Podcast!
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Jul 14, 2017 - 16:01 Reply with quote Back to top

@mattdakka, yea fair enough. Some other minmax example there then, 1wolf necro or something

I'd be interested to know what race people think is tier 1, top5 in the widest variety of situations
Regardless of meta, match making, perpetual or tabletop or tournament or league, regardless of coaching skill, regardless of TV

In all the possible situations and environments BB can happen, which team is most often a good choice?

I think dark elves. Any others?
Sigmar1



Joined: Aug 13, 2008

Post   Posted: Jul 14, 2017 - 16:35 Reply with quote Back to top

Orcs. Good at all TV vs. a wide variety of opponents.

_________________
Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges!
Display posts from previous:     
 Jump to:   
All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Post new topic   Reply to topic
View previous topic Log in to check your private messages View next topic