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Thunderfrog



Joined: Jul 25, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 04:04 Reply with quote Back to top

When should one consider fouling more important, and less important?

I had a brief chat with Matt Dakka about it and I suppose it comes down to acceptable risk, but I am looking for more feedback.

For example, if I want to foul - and then break armor, he explained that I have a 33% chance of being called off the pitch by the ref, and then a 17% +/- chance of arguing the foul.

So assuming no bribes, and assuming gangfoul assures breaking of armor, isn't it pretty much always worth the 40% chance to inflict a KO or better when you weigh it against a 16% chance of getting called off the field?

I understand that some of that comes down to the value of what I'm trying to remove (That Str 4 Move 9 wardancer, or the Move 10 Blodge Gutter Runner), but I'm looking for general strategy.


-----------------

2nd thought: I find myself usually tending to start fouling much much more when my team is outnumbered on the pitch, looking to try and make something happen to even the odds. Is this a backwards approach, even with a dirty player?
Guardikai



Joined: Jun 23, 2009

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 05:00 Reply with quote Back to top

If you have a dirty player and people in your reserves that will create a team of 11 even should you be sent off then it's worth doing even if you're outnumbered currently on the pitch. However, if you're outnumbered and would begin a new drive with 11 players or less then it's usually not so smart to foul. However, the importance of the target and the amount of foul assists can change this. If it's that Str 4 MV9 WD you mentioned and you've got 2 assists on him then foul the crap out of him.

That'll teach him.
Gozer_the_Gozerian



Joined: May 30, 2015

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 05:04 Reply with quote Back to top

https://fumbbl.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=viewarticle&artid=7&page=8
Thunderfrog



Joined: Jul 25, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 05:11 Reply with quote Back to top

Thanks Gozer, for that winning bit of literature.
Squiglet



Joined: Aug 13, 2015

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 11:05 Reply with quote Back to top

Times I fouled in the past:

1. When I have enough assists to reduce armour roll to 7+ and I am happy to exchange the fouler for the fouled player being KO and it will not harm my position to get sent off.

With an unskilled fouler the chance of sending off and the chance of getting KO are about even at 7+ and move more in your favour the lower you make the armour roll.

With a DP the probability of getting an Injury on a 7+ armour roll becomes approximately equal to the chance of a sending off and a KO result increases significantly.

Having a Sneaky Git player also reduces chance of sending off but SG is generally seen as a weak skill not worth the extra TV it adds (although I have used it on dedicated foulers previously).

So gang Foul the opponent's high TV players with rookies or DPs whenever you can provided getting sent off would not damage your positional play or leave you too short on players for the next drive.

2. When the target is such high value I'll take a punt at it even when the odds are low.

Nothing like taking the opponents big guy or star out with a solo rookie gobbo foul to give your side a moral boost, sometimes even a stun might be worth it just to keep them out of the action long enough for play to move away or stop them from plugging a gap in the defence.

This is something I have only done with stunties though where the play is alway high risk because trying to play conservatively just gets your team splattered more slowly.

3. To try and force a change in my opponent's play.

Six opponent players camped with the ball just outside your endzone and looking like they are happy to sit there until turn 8?

Opponent leaving players on the ground to build a strong defence around the ball giving you no way through?

Gang foul and they might start to think differently...

Even if you can't break their defence you might make enough of an impact to get number advantage the following drive.

This used to be more useful in the PO era where you wanted to make them think twice about dropping their cPOMBer to the ground every time.

4. Foul to get sent off

I can only remember doing this once, the game was lost I had my troll and about 4 gobbos facing a full 11 orcs and I was (I think) 3-0 down mid 2nd half but one of the gobbos was really high value AG5 (but ST1) and I had to field him - so first action was to foul on a AV9 ST4 blackle POMB orc blitzer stunty killer my troll just put down - as it happened the orc went KO and the ref sent my golden gobbo off keeping him safe for the rest of the match.

Not sure about the ethics of this, and it is something I probably would not do again (the damn troll ate the AG5 gobbo a couple of matches later anyway and all he had done in the meantime was hike my TV and sit on the bench waiting for a TTM opportunity, better to have tossed him for an unlikely consolation TD in that first game) it is something I occasionally see with elves etc.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 11:46 Reply with quote Back to top

No. If you are winning, and literally no dice roll needed to keep up the avantage, then it makes no sense to risk anything. Well, unless you win even if your guy is sent off, but then it is recreational fouling, and not a strategic one.

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ArrestedDevelopment



Joined: Sep 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 13:40 Reply with quote Back to top

bghandras wrote:
No. If you are winning, and literally no dice roll needed to keep up the avantage, then it makes no sense to risk anything. Well, unless you win even if your guy is sent off, but then it is recreational fouling, and not a strategic one.



Are you sure?

If you have a foul on an opponent's only real "killer" player left, with a DP, would you not take it in order to have the chance to make your stall "safer"?


Also different in League as opposed to one-off game; where fouling even as you win can destroy an opponent for a few games Wink


I would consider both strategic.

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Jim_Fear



Joined: May 02, 2014

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 14:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Thunderfrog wrote:
I had a brief chat with Matt Dakka...


That would be your first mistake.

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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 14:58 Reply with quote Back to top

@AD - OP author played in ranked, stunty and bbox, hence my answer. Your points are valid, and i would have brought them up myself in a different context.

P.S. Fouling a killer may still result in loss of game whereas a no foul would result in a win. (When lets say late in the game, and up by 2-3 players. Imagine a snake on the foul, sentoff, and no stun on the killer.)

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"This is turning into the best thing on FUMBBL" - Seventyone
"THIS LEAGUE IS AWESOME!!!!" - Kummo
"Last league i would leave." - SpecialOne
Traul



Joined: Jun 09, 2013

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 15:48 Reply with quote Back to top

Thunderfrog wrote:
For example, if I want to foul - and then break armor, he explained that I have a 33% chance of being called off the pitch by the ref, and then a 17% +/- chance of arguing the foul.

So assuming no bribes, and assuming gangfoul assures breaking of armor, isn't it pretty much always worth the 40% chance to inflict a KO or better when you weigh it against a 16% chance of getting called off the field?

That math is not correct: probabilities do not subtract. The probability to be sent off is 33% x 5/6 (probability that the Argue call fails) = 28%.
BuskFare



Joined: Jul 01, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 20, 2017 - 17:11 Reply with quote Back to top

I fouled 10 times, and as a result of that (plus some very rough dice rolls) scored 3 times and gained a rotter with nurgle https://fumbbl.com/p/match?id=3926078

to be precise, you have an 11/36 chance of being caught by the ref (5/6 x 5/6 for passing both is 25/36 for not being caught).

the more players off the pitch, the easier it is to score. teams like nurgles usually have spare rotters (I had a -st and a -av from last game that could be ejected without suffering), so having some dirty players is definitely a reliable way to clear the pitch to ensure the most scores for spp, if not a forfeiture
Wozzaa



Joined: Apr 23, 2016

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 00:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Gozer_the_Gozerian wrote:
https://fumbbl.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=viewarticle&artid=7&page=8


I'm inspired. Time to foul!
Wuhan



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 01:59 Reply with quote Back to top

The best way to learn how to play elfs is to play 10+ games with an elf team with 0 RR. You learn exactly what you can do with risk.

The best way to learn how to foul, is to foul 16 turns in a game. You learn exactly what a boot can do, and how risky/rewarding it is.

Every armor roll, is a potential injury. Every boot is a beautiful butterfly/rainbow/water slide. Fouls bring smiles to babies.
Zirgantz



Joined: May 30, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 03:13 Reply with quote Back to top

I think the best window to foul is between turn 2-3 and turn 14-15. Before that, you run the risk of having players sent off too soon, and after that it's usually unnecessary and spiteful since it's unlikely to have an effect on the outcome of the game. It may or may not be immensely satisfying though.
Catalyst32



Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Post   Posted: Aug 21, 2017 - 03:55 Reply with quote Back to top

On turn 1 is it worth your listed % chance of being Sent Off for your listed % chance of a KO?

REMEMBER sent off is for the WHOLE GAME.
KOs get a chance to return after every TD and at the end of the 1st Half.
That opposing player you are fouling better be VALUABLE... a serious game changer for the risk/reward to make sense.

Remember the potential negatives.
You drop to 10... and your opponent remains at 11 is possible.
You drop to 10... and your opponent only loses a guy for 3 or 4 turns is possible and he is back to 11.



I foul when that foul could seriously turn the tide of the game.
Maybe I have an 11-9 or 11-8 man advantage and losing 1 of mine won't be so bad... but getting 1 more of his off would almost guarantee a win for my team.
Maybe I am down 8-11 or 9-11 and I believe if I don't even things up a bit I am headed for a sure Loss.
Maybe he best player is down and I have a decent chance to lay the boot with a gang foul that will seriously hurt his team.
That is when you foul. Those situations (and others for certain) are when you lay the boot.
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