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pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 18:19 Reply with quote Back to top

hahahahahahaaha

it's like it's 2009 all over again!

DiCe ConSpiroCy!

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JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 18:30 Reply with quote Back to top

Something else to mention, which you might not be aware of: on every match report page, you can view the dice stats for that game, by clicking on the dice symbol with the green arrows around it. In that example, you played against an experienced player with 100s of games and it doesn't seem that your single-d6s or block dice were heavily skewed.

I had a look at some of your other games and I didn't see many that looked particularly bad. Also, many of your first 20 games have been against very experienced players who, like Purplechest said, are going to exploit any bad roll you make very efficiently.

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gpope



Joined: Jun 04, 2010

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 18:37 Reply with quote Back to top

Statistics are tricky. Remember, by definition you have a 50/50 chance to do worse than expected.

So out of 18 games, you can expect to have at least 9 bad games.

But remember: that's also a statistical expectation! So you have a 50/50 chance to have more than 9 bad games.

Plus, Blood Bowl is a complicated game with a lot of moving parts. In any given game you're making a lot of different rolls. Not all of them are the same type or the same importance. So, even if the combined average of all your dice rolls is better than expected (or at least about as expected), you may not notice the times that you're rolling well because you're focused on the times that rolls didn't go your way.

Probability is not your friend; the only way to succeed with any consistency is to play according to Murphy's Law. Always assume that everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Every time you click to roll a d6 or a 1db assume that it's going to be a turnover, because a 1 in 6 chance is not all that rare in the big scheme of things.
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 18:51 Reply with quote Back to top

gpope wrote:


So out of 18 games, you can expect to have at least 9 bad games.

But remember: that's also a statistical expectation! So you have a 50/50 chance to have more than 9 bad games.


Define bad.

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sikosyko



Joined: Jan 29, 2018

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:10 Reply with quote Back to top

I kinda feel sorry for the last 2 players.The remarks they made without actually seeing the games is shortsighted.Just finished a game where i rolled 12 skulls in a roll on 2 dice blocks with blitzers that have block.It was so bad other guy was apologizing.Missed 3 quick passes with a thrower too.Only been playing 2 years so i make bad choices thats totally irrelevant to the dice.I guess 2 dice blocks with block and rerolls are risky on here lol.Anyway thanks for the "help" much appreciated.
Cloggy



Joined: Sep 23, 2004

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:19 Reply with quote Back to top

Just to shed a little light on the reason why you are not getting much sympathy:

We have already had 734 people before you who came to play here, usually after ruling the three buddies they normally played against andd got their asses handed to them only to blame the awful dice.

They were all wrong and so are you Smile

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Carlo_Pellegatti



Joined: Apr 24, 2006

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:30 Reply with quote Back to top

sikosyko wrote:
I kinda feel sorry for the last 2 players.The remarks they made without actually seeing the games is shortsighted.Just finished a game where i rolled 12 skulls in a roll on 2 dice blocks with blitzers that have block.It was so bad other guy was apologizing.Missed 3 quick passes with a thrower too.Only been playing 2 years so i make bad choices thats totally irrelevant to the dice.I guess 2 dice blocks with block and rerolls are risky on here lol.Anyway thanks for the "help" much appreciated.


Lie
jdmickleburgh



Joined: Nov 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:32 Reply with quote Back to top

It would be a lot of work to code the dice to be extra bad just for you and who would have a reason to do so?

If you feel you're having bad dice then play expecting that, play cautiously, roll fewer dice. Then when you feel your dice are back on track you can use the lessons you've learned about rolling less and become a better player

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Rbthma



Joined: Jan 14, 2009

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:37 Reply with quote Back to top

sikosyko wrote:
I kinda feel sorry for the last 2 players.The remarks they made without actually seeing the games is shortsighted.Just finished a game where i rolled 12 skulls in a roll on 2 dice blocks with blitzers that have block.It was so bad other guy was apologizing.Missed 3 quick passes with a thrower too.Only been playing 2 years so i make bad choices thats totally irrelevant to the dice.I guess 2 dice blocks with block and rerolls are risky on here lol.Anyway thanks for the "help" much appreciated.

So provide a link to said match. I seem to recall a coach a few months back claiming 3 triple-skulls in a match, but when he finally provided the link it was nothing even close to how bad he'd been claiming- basically he over reacted. That may account for why you're not getting a lot of sympathy here.

edit: couldn't find it, but if you go back through the forums posts like yours come up regularly.

Some context:
https://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=29336


Last edited by Rbthma on Feb 04, 2018 - 20:49; edited 1 time in total
Gozer_the_Gozerian



Joined: May 30, 2015

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:45 Reply with quote Back to top

jdmickleburgh wrote:
It would be a lot of work to code the dice to be extra bad just for you...


I believe an admin once said this is all it would take...
if (coachName == "sikosyko" && roll >= 4) { roll = rng.roll(6); }

Easy peasy. Twisted Evil
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:46 Reply with quote Back to top

sikosyko - one of the other lessons from playing on Fumbbl is you more keenly remember bad luck than good. If you play enough games, you'll have more than a handful where your opponent was the hapless hostage to stumbling into the seed at a bad point.

What you describe is not an anomaly - you can go several games where nothing pans out. Since you can play 4-5 a day you could encounter those washouts twice in one day even, leaving you with a sour taste in your mouth. Compounding this is that positioning is a zero sum game - your bad moves open up good ones for your opponent, your opponents good moves make it harder to do things and increases not only the potential risk of failure but also make failures that much more damning.

There's good news though - if you can learn to take the bad diceskis in stride you will find a wonderful home on Fumbbl with a plethora of leagues, tournaments, open play and people who genuinely want to help you get better at the game - myself included. You might even get so good that you can endure bad luck multiple times per game and not even lose.

Almost all have been where you're at, questioning the RNG of the site, but after playing over 3000 games I can safely say, Nuffle sometimes loves you and sometimes hates you but you still can plan around fickleness of him and that's half the game.
gpope



Joined: Jun 04, 2010

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 20:59 Reply with quote Back to top

This is the match that the OP completed just minutes before posting about how bad his last match was.

To the surprise of no one, he did not roll 12 skulls in a row. At one point he did 3 skulls in a row, a pow, a push, and 2 more skulls. Which is pretty bad--there's only a 0.2% chance of rolling 5 skulls within 7 dice.

Buuut... there were a total of 58 block dice thrown by his side that game. When you throw that many dice, there are a lot of chances to hit that 0.2% chance. It's still fairly unlucky but if that's the worst streak you've had in 19 games that is pretty much right on par with expectations.

In fact, a lot of coaches might barely even notice a streak like that. Here's what that sequence of rolls looks like when you're making safe blocks:

2 die block: [SKULL] [SKULL]. That's no good, so reroll.
2 die block: [SKULL] [PUSHBACK]. Not great, but at least it's safe.
2 die block: [POW] [SKULL]. Success!
2 die block: [SKULL] [PUSH]. Another unsuccessful but safe block.

Playing it safe, you can skate through a dread one-in-500 streak of bad luck with a single reroll and without getting any turnovers. But every single one of those skulls was a 1 die block, and only one of them had a reroll (which was another skull.) So he had 4 turnovers over the course of 4 one-die blocks, with a single successful 2db in the middle. Fairly bad, but also 100% avoidable.
MorMac77



Joined: Dec 31, 2017

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 21:07 Reply with quote Back to top

I pretty much consider a 1db skull to be the norm (and a 1db "pow" nothing short of a miracle, lol!).
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 21:12 Reply with quote Back to top

gpope wrote:
Statistics are tricky. Remember, by definition you have a 50/50 chance to do worse than expected.

So out of 18 games, you can expect to have at least 9 bad games.

But remember: that's also a statistical expectation! So you have a 50/50 chance to have more than 9 bad games.


This is very well said. Probability can be very counter-intuitive and when you couple this with the fact that you are a new player, playing against highly-experienced players, it's not so surprising that you haven't won a lot of games.

Rbthma wrote:
So provide a link to said match.


+1. If you're going to make that sort of statement, then you've got to back it up with a link and turn number, so we can all witness this supposed abberation of statistics. (although, the thing about probability is that, given a large enough sample size, absolutely everything can and will happen. The science of quantum mechanics is based on that).

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pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 21:16 Reply with quote Back to top

sikosyko wrote:
I guess 2 dice blocks with block and rerolls are risky on here lol.Anyway thanks for the "help" much appreciated.


whenever you roll dice you are assuming risk.

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