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Gozer_the_Gozerian



Joined: May 30, 2015

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 23:33 Reply with quote Back to top

Ultimately your question cannot be answered, because I imagine no player here has seen the code for the random number generator, so they really have no idea if there were any errors in its implementation. It's probably best just to try and roll as few dice as possible, which is one of the first things you read in any help guide anyways.
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Feb 04, 2018 - 23:36 Reply with quote Back to top

pythrr wrote:
I wish to move 3 camels with Top Packers.

--

My Bad! Was confusing nonsense threads for a moment.


No way! Me too! Damn, if only I could find someone who could take care of that for me ..

Ah heck, where am I going to find someone with the experience to do that out here in Navi, Mumbai?

Laughing

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Eisenherz



Joined: Feb 09, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 00:37 Reply with quote Back to top

Hey man, i am one of the coaches you played and yes, you had some bad luck, especially on injuries which i think is very bad for orcs. That being said you hat some great dodges and good pick ups too. Here is the game:
https://fumbbl.com/p/matches?c=sikosyko&coach2=Eisenherz

At the start of the game i offered you to make this a practice match where i would give you some advice while we play. You didnt comment that. Instead you complained a lot about the dice. Which is cool by me and we had a good game nontheless.

I do understand you very well. It was in december i think, when i made a similar complaint about the dice here in the forum. I got very nice feedback from a lot of coaches and thats what kept me going and its why i am writing here now.

The thing is: Some people are luckier than others. But some people tend to notice the bad luck more than the good luck. I am one of those second people and maybe you are one too.

Think about it: You are very new to this site. FUMMBL has a ton of good coaches so this might be way more competitive that most tabletop BB games you have played. As was already mentioned, these coaches tend to make you pay much harder for any bad dice roll. And you as a new coach cannot profit as well from your good rolls. And very good coaches tend to make less fatal mistakes because they know when to risk something and when not to.

So you can keep on believing in weird dice here on FUMBBL (a part of me cant help but still to do that) or/and you can accept that it is quite possible that what you perceive as bad dice is actually something in your play that you can work on.

One last thing: If you wanna talk statistics i think you need to have a lot more games to have a reliable basis to judge. Everybody here on FUMBBL has some horror stories about absolutely horrible bad luck (and unbelieveable lucky rolls but we dont like to talk about that much).
mister__joshua



Joined: Jun 20, 2007

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 01:15
FUMBBL Staff
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Throweck wrote:
I know, I have been where you have. It must be rigged, etc. Truth is, it wasn't. I was just crap. Took a while but I'm getting better.


Don't lie to the man, you're still crap Wink

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 01:21 Reply with quote Back to top

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!

Ranked at dawn!
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 09:47 Reply with quote Back to top

I hope OP reads purplechest truth-bombs, instead of sulking.. I think he might have already quit because he got tough love instead of the answers /sympathy he originally wanted
Throweck



Joined: Feb 23, 2013

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 09:58
FUMBBL Staff
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mister__joshua wrote:
Throweck wrote:
I know, I have been where you have. It must be rigged, etc. Truth is, it wasn't. I was just crap. Took a while but I'm getting better.


Don't lie to the man, you're still crap Wink


Gah! Rumbled.
lawofthewest



Joined: Nov 09, 2017

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 12:13 Reply with quote Back to top

sikosyko wrote:
Ilove this game but i never seen dice rolls this bad before.Is there a secret or somethin i have failed at least 7 2ups every game.I cant even dodge with a player that has dodge.Just needing advice from veteran players on here am new to the website.Iplay real games in a league and have never seen some of the rolls i seen on here.Is there some sort of update or something thank you in advance.


it alse depends how many inducements do u have - how many rerolls do you use?
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 16:34
FUMBBL Staff
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Gozer_the_Gozerian wrote:
I believe an admin once said this is all it would take...
if (coachName == "sikosyko" && roll >= 4) { roll = rng.roll(6); }

Easy peasy. Twisted Evil


That admin would have been me. However, there's a bit more to it than that. The whole application would need to be refactored to send the active coach to the dice roller module.

Also, the dice statistics would show something like that very very quickly with a long-term bias towards lower rolls.

A better variant would be

if (coachName == "sikosyko" && roll >= 4 && rng.roll(10) == 1) { roll = rng.roll(6); }

This would be less obvious (since only 10% of the high rolls would be affected) and less likely to be visible in the overall stats. This assumes no deep cross-match analysis would be done for the player in question.

To get a bit more serious, the honest truth is that the site has absolutely nothing to benefit from unfair dice. And even if we were going to shift dice probabilities, it'd objectively be better to shift dice towards more successes rather than more failures. Clearly, we're not doing that either (although there is a thread about five +AG skill rolls in a row on a team Smile ).

The bottom line here is that the dice are fine. The difference is that the opposition is for the most part much stronger than local leagues out there. New players tend to have a bit of an uphill battle when starting out, and it's really really easy to have games deteriorate to needing higher risk plays (which inevitably catches up with you at some point). And given how the mind works, it's easy to think it's the dice that caused the problems rather than your own skill.

But of course, some games are seriously one-sided in terms of dice. It's kinda part of the territory when you have randomness involved in any way.
Gozer_the_Gozerian



Joined: May 30, 2015

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 16:59 Reply with quote Back to top

From what I understand, 'real' dice rolls are far from random. There can be tiny imperfections in the dice such as air bubbles, the initial state of the dice can affect the outcome (the top face is most likely to be rolled again), and the friction of the surface the dice are rolled upon is also a factor. If dice rolls are not truly random, neither are they chaotic (small differences in starting conditions leading to large differences in end results)...for this the dice would have to bounce an infinite number of times, which cannot happen due to friction.
koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 17:04 Reply with quote Back to top

Sp00keh wrote:
I hope OP reads purplechest truth-bombs, instead of sulking.. I think he might have already quit because he got tough love instead of the answers /sympathy he originally wanted


He got as far as 1/2/16. Most of them don't play that many games before disappearing. Probably without a word.

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Tulkas_jrrt



Joined: Apr 30, 2012

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 18:51 Reply with quote Back to top

Did you try donating to the site ? I had a lot better dice then Smile

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thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 19:28 Reply with quote Back to top

Gozer_the_Gozerian wrote:
Ultimately your question cannot be answered, because I imagine no player here has seen the code for the random number generator


Even if you had access to the code, randomness isn't something one can determine with a decisive test. All the best tests will tell you is that the strings tests are very, very likely indistinguishable from noise. From that you infer it's random.

Worse, there are many conceptions of randomness. Here is a random paper on the subject. No, I don't mean "random" in an RNG sense.

My proposal to Spiro is still on the table.

To return to the topic of the thread, here's a pro-tip: prepare for failure, and plan for success. It's possible to minimize the impact of failing to pick up a ball. It's also possible to be lucky without having one's game wrecked by not being so.

There are odds. There are expectations too. Learn the difference.

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Malmir



Joined: May 20, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 19:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Another fun thread - well done everyone. No point in repeating what you've already been told, so I'll just add that Purplechest's claim to be the unluckiest coach on site around Christmas was cobblers as I held that mantle at the time winning about 8 out of 30 games (which is a fair way off my usual ratio)and I'm only just (maybe) coming out of it. On a semi-serious note, bad luck does happen, and sometimes more than one game in a row, but unless your luck is really terrible it can be minimised. If your luck is really terrible, just bend over.
thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 05, 2018 - 19:39 Reply with quote Back to top

Eisenherz wrote:
Some people are luckier than others.


Only one guy, and only on Sundays.

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