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sann0638



Joined: Aug 09, 2010

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 16:58 Reply with quote Back to top

Hi,
is it possible from game data to pull together the win % based on whether you receive or kick, with a supplementary question of who won the toss?
Any ideas?
Ta,
Mike

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DrDeath



Joined: Mar 27, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 17:57 Reply with quote Back to top

Just to add, I don't think the results would be very informative unless you break it down to race. I strongly suspect some sides are better receiving first (e.g. norse, who can hit hard but have low armour so want to get the initiative), others kicking (e.g. agility sides I suspect), but if you average it all out it will mask this finer detail.
ArrestedDevelopment



Joined: Sep 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 18:04 Reply with quote Back to top

Would probably want to separate CRP data from post-CRP.

Chaos receiving first with 4 cpomb players is rather different on average from receiving first without for example, and that's merely an exaggerated data point.

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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 18:04 Reply with quote Back to top

I am pretty sure that the result would NOT be balanced to 50%. Dont expect a huge, but statistically significant deviation from 50%.

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JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 19:47 Reply with quote Back to top

This would be interesting to document.

What would be fun to have for each race:
1) (kick/receive) first w%;
2) (win/lose) the coin toss w%;
3) win the coin toss, opt to (k/r) first %;
4) win the coin toss, opt to (k/r) first w%;
5) 1-4 above for overtime (expect mostly win toss = receive, but what's the w%?).

We might have to amalgamate the races for #5. Still, it would be interesting to see the win rate for coin-toss winners.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 20:08 Reply with quote Back to top

sann0638 wrote:
Hi,
is it possible from game data to pull together the win % based on whether you receive or kick, with a supplementary question of who won the toss?
Any ideas?
Ta,
Mike


The only way to track that would be if deep inside the match report there is a "field" that denotes who kicked/receive so you could sort that stack to win/loss.

So far above my FUMBBL pay grade on the answer to that and if you could even sort that data.

I only work here man. You want to know how the sausage is made you need to talk to my manager.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 20:12 Reply with quote Back to top

NOW I will say this.

IF you receive the kick that is good if you can grind for 8 turns and punch in the score and make the other team score on a back to back scenario. OTS on T8 to finish the half and then grind you down in the second half for a t8 score and make you then OTS T8 in the second.

Taking the kick off ensures no matter what you get the last drive in the second half.

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Verminardo



Joined: Sep 27, 2006

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 20:36 Reply with quote Back to top

DrDeath wrote:
Just to add, I don't think the results would be very informative unless you break it down to race.


^This.
sann0638



Joined: Aug 09, 2010

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 20:46 Reply with quote Back to top

Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great!

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harvestmouse



Joined: May 13, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 22:27 Reply with quote Back to top

sann0638 wrote:
Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great!


I'm not sure I've ever elected to kick. I can see the potential to in league. In practice though, I just can't see it as the logical choice. And I AM A WINNER!!!
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 22:31 Reply with quote Back to top

harvestmouse wrote:
sann0638 wrote:
Winners kick. Allows you to control the game. But empirical evidence would be great!


I'm not sure I've ever elected to kick. I can see the potential to in league. In practice though, I just can't see it as the logical choice. And I AM A WINNER!!!


The logic is simple:

1. Bad things that happen on offense are really bad
2. You have tools to extract the ball and score on defense
3. You have some nascent OTTD game and ability
4. You want to know exactly what is needed in the 2nd half out of your squad and can then play accordingly.

The logic for receiving is simple:

1. You have tools to depitch players
2. You have a solid ball carrier (ST4 Blodge)
3. You are shooting for OT after attrition
4. You want to conduct an 8 turn offensive drive
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 25, 2019 - 22:39 Reply with quote Back to top

Logic is even simpler: if you bash, receive. If you are fragile AND can steal the ball, kick. Otherwise, receive.
MonkeyMan576



Joined: Jul 02, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 26, 2019 - 00:26 Reply with quote Back to top

I thought it said give or receive.
harvestmouse



Joined: May 13, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 26, 2019 - 00:55 Reply with quote Back to top

For me I see it very much like tennis (if you were only playing one game). You'd elect to serve or receive? I can see situations in a league where you 'could' receive (when things aren't even) but in practice I never would.
Strider84



Joined: Jun 03, 2009

Post   Posted: Oct 26, 2019 - 01:08 Reply with quote Back to top

I think looking at naf style games only without overtime, you should almost always kick. only exception maybe bash vs bash, but even there, there is rarely any proper bash team with more than 2 mb. maybe norse as they sre pure glass cannon.

also gives you the choice to play for the win or the tie.

i would expect the kicking team to have a significant advantage like 55 to 60%.
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