GreenHulk
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Feb 12, 2003 - 15:04 |
 
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I understand the basic percentages and probability of this game known as BB, but I know there are allot of you out there that have an advanced understanding of the percentages and probability that rule this game. I think we would all love to have a sticky post that can could shed some light on the subject for those of us looking for a more advanced understanding of the game. I know this is a huge task, but some of you out there seem to love this type of thing.
~You wouldn't like me when I'm angry!  |
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Joshi
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 16:49 |
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Whatcha exactly want? A table on which probabilities are listed if player #1 with "blabla"-skills blocks another player #2 with "blabla2"-skills and on what percentage this player is injured etc.? And another table for passes or on which probability a player with AG3 can dodge two times, GFI 2 times and catch the ball then? 
Maybe one thing for now: If an Oger with block and Mighty Blow blocks a goblin with dodge, in my opinion there a 98% chance that the goblin will die
mfg Joshi |
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Maniac0301
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 17:04 |
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arnob
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 17:15 |
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goblin will die : 152/216 (3 block dices) * ( 15/36 ( armor roll without mb ) * 10/36 (injured with mb) * 1/6 (die) + 6/36 (armor roll with mb) * 6/36 (injured without mb) * 1/6 (die) )
= 152/216 * (150+36)/7776 = 1.68% ...
if a ogre with block, block 14 goblins per game, he will kill 1 goblin every 4.25 game ... not so bad |
Last edited by arnob on %b %12, %2003 - %17:%Feb; edited 1 time in total |
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Dan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 17:24 |
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If anyone wants a probability chart I have a spreadsheet with most of 'em on (well blocking and passing). I was gonna convert it to HTML format for the site but to be honest I know Zip about html. Anyway if you want a copy send me an email at Daniel_Mitchell@btinternet.com
p.s It's excel |
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arnob
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 17:35 |
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and an ogre will die when he blocks a goblin : 1/216 (3 skulls) * 6/36 (armor roll) * 6/36 (injured) * 1/6 (die)
= 36 /1679616 = 0.0021 %
So, if this ogre block 14 goblin per game, he have a esperance of life of 3332 match... |
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Dan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 17:57 |
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Thats only if the ogre has block, otherwise he's got EVEN MORE (hmmm) chance of dieing |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 18:26 |
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1/27 or 8/216 (3 skulls and/or skull/pows) instead of 1/216 (3 skulls).
Comes out to 36/209952 or about .01714% or 8 times as likely.
why 8/216? Because there are 8 combinations of skulls (s) and skull/pow (p) on 3 dice:
sss
ssp
sps
pss
spp
pps
psp
ppp |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies
Last edited by BadMrMojo on %b %12, %2003 - %19:%Feb; edited 1 time in total |
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Revener
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 19:42 |
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Whats the chance of rolling Skull agagin then? beacuse 90% of the times I RR a skull, I'll get a new one  |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 19:58 |
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The odds of rolling double-anything on 2 dice is 1/36.
For each die, multiply by 1/6. so, 2 dice:
| Code: |
1 1 1
- X - = --
6 6 36
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So what are your odds of failing a 5+ dodge with a Reroll? To make a 5+ you need to get a 5 or 6, so that's a 2/6 chance. 2/6 = 1/3, so...
| Code: |
1(x)1(=)1
-- X -- = --
3(x)3(=)9
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(the ()s are for poor victims of the American school system who forget their fractions. No offense intended to the rest of the world )
{ edit: trying to make my fractions line up! } |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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Crecass
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 20:31 |
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1/9 is actually the chance of making two rolls with 5+ (they each have a 1/3 probability of success).
The odds of failing both rolls is 16/36, as there are 20 dice combinations with at least one 5 or 6. |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 21:23 |
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AsperonThorn
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 21:28 |
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Crecass is correct, and to stay with the original post, that is a 44% chance of failing both rolls. Less than half, but still pretty high.
By increasing it to a 4+ Dodge, with a RR you have a 25% chance of failing both rolls.
3+ = 11%
2+ = 3%
Asperon Thorn |
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Revener
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 21:32 |
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Double ones on my 2+ dodge saves is also quite usual |
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AsperonThorn
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 12, 2003 - 22:25 |
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Well the numbers that I posted does not consider Acerak's BBMaxim's. Which is far more accurate than actual statistics. |
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