Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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 Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 04:17 |
 
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Ulthuan Invitational Round 1
Plorg's Picks
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Silvan Seakings (339/293 Elf) FischerKing
+ 12/2/0 record against Chaos
+ 10 Blodgers
Brides of Slaneesh (235/213 Chaos) Talons
- Only 1 Claw+RSC, 2 Tacklers, and 0 Dirty Players
- 4 Niggled players
+ 5 handicaps
With only 1 DP in the stadium (an Elf blodger), expect a clean sportsmanlike game where the Chaos team struggles to stop the Elfs from walking through their tackle zones. For the Chaos to win this, they need to have meaningful handicaps and to get lucky with KOs/casualties early in the game. With relatively few armor/injury modifiers for a Chaos team and no fouling advantage, this isn't likely to happen.
Plorg's Pick: Silvan Seakings by 3
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Agile cats for a change (283/272 Dark Elf) OverDose
+ 4/0/0 record against Amazon
+ 8 Blodgers
+ 6 Tacklers
+ 4 +ST
Nurses Go Berserk (243/232 Amazon) Jokaero
- 3/1/2 record against Dark Elf
+ 14 Blodgers
+ 5 Tacklers
+ 5 Guards
+ 2 handicaps
These teams look very similar in skill choices. The Dark Elves have more ST, but the Amazons have more Guard. With most players having Blodge, this will be a tight game of careful positioning of the Tacklers on both sides. Expect the natural AG and AV advantage of the Dark Elves to win the game.
Plorg's Pick: Agile cats for a change by 1
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Hayashi Ronin Revisited (274/232 Wood Elf) gamenutter
+ 2/0/0 record against Skaven
+ 9 Blodgers
- 12 players
+ 1 handicap
Gonzales Critters (292/253 Skaven) tassel
+ 11/2/9 record against Wood Elf
+ 16 players
+ 2 Block+RSC against AV 6 and 7
There aren't any OTS players here but there is still plenty of MV 9 all around, so this should be a high scoring game. The Skaven already have a significant numerical advantage, and some lucky use of the RSC players could seal this game early on.
Plorg's Pick: Gonzales Critters by 2
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Blood Red Dragons (307/292 Dark Elf)
+ 3/0/0 record against Undead
+ 9 Blodgers
+ 5 +ST
+ 2 Dirty Players
Autopsic Leftovers (255/249 Undead)
- 1/0/1 record against Dark Elf
+ Fast(?) mummies
+ 3 handicaps
+ 4 Dirty Players
+ Enough cash to hire the Count for every round in this tournament.
I would like to see the Undead win this, but it's hard to envision it happening. The Dark Elves have enough Tackle/DT to cover all the Ghouls with the ST of an Orc team on top. However, the Mummies are fast enough to maintain a cage for the Count. A lucky Virus for the Undead could take out 2 of the best Dark Elf players, evening the field considerably. Expect a bashy foul fest where the Undead try to thin the Dark Elves enough so they can't stop the Count from scoring TDs.
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1 in OT
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Scharfe Biester (328/256 Chaos)
- 1/1/1 record against Skaven
+ Heavy ST/Guard advantage
+ 5 Tacklers
+ 9 players with armor/injury modifiers (Claw/MB/DP)
Helena High (261/234 Skaven)
+ 14/2/3 record against Chaos
+ 15 players
+ 3 handicaps
This is the strongest Chaos team in the tournament, with enough Tackle to cover all the Gutter Runners and enough armor/injury modifiers to damage the AV 7 Skaven severely. These Skaven have an impressive record against Chaos, but they haven't yet faced a strong Chaos team with this much Tackle. The Skaven have some Guard but these Chaos have more. Like most bashy vs dashy games, a Chaos win here depends on early casualties and this team has the skills to make them. I wouldn't want to be the Skaven team if this match goes into overtime.
Plorg's Pick: Scharfe Biester by 1
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Sanguine Savants (292/267 Dark Elf)
+ 3/2/1 record against Chaos
+ 4 Blodgers (vs 3 Tackle)
+ 6 Guard (vs 4)
+ 3 +ST
+ 15 players
Possessed (229/211 Chaos)
- 1/0/3 record against Dark Elves
+ 3 handicaps
At first glance it looks like the Chaos team out-strengths the Dark Elves, until you count the Dark Elf Guards. AV 8 is just as breakable on Beastmen as it is on Dark Elves. The Chaos team doesn't take enough Tackle to cover all the Blodgers. Both teams have 2 Dirty Players, so expect plenty of fouling. The Dark Elves have a deep bench and the Chaos aren't skilled to make a sufficient number of casualties to counter that. This should be a bashy Dark Elf blowout, no overtime.
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 2
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Chaotic Supastarz (263/224 Chaos)
- 1/1/1 record against Dark Elf
+ Heavy ST/Guard advantage
+ 1 handicap
+ Cash to hire 2-3 Star Players for this match
Parking Lot Peddlers (278/248 Dark Elf)
- 1/0/1 record against Chaos
+ 2 dangerous Witch Elves
+ 3 Dirty Players (vs 2)
+ 6 Side Step
These Chaos have 3 Tacklers to cover the Witch Elves, which is just enough since Flynn's Dark Elves don't seem to like Dodge. The Chaos ST/Guard advantage should win them the war of player attrition. The Dark Elf bench isn't very deep with 13 players and they don't have the cash to fix that. The Dark Elf Side Steppers will be insanely annoying to the Chaos, but if they focus on hurting the Witch Elves then this could easily be a Chaos upset.
Plorg's Pick: Chaotic Supastarz by 1 in OT
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Yo rc II (218/203 Orc)
- 0/1/0 record against Wood Elf
+ Heavy ST/Guard advantage
+ 3 handicaps
+ 15 players
+ TTM OTS possibility
Myranor Wanderers (270/264 Wood Elf)
+ 10/1/6 record against Orc
+ 7 Blodgers (vs 3 Tacklers)
+ 14 players
While the Orcs have the ST/Guard advantage, the Wood Elves seem to have every other kind of advantage.
If the Orcs get VERY lucky they might pull a tie into overtime with a last-turn Goblin TTM, but this should be an easy win for the Wood Elves.
Plorg's Pick: Myranor Wanderers by 3
[edit: oops Hayashi Ronin Revisited are Wood Elf]
[edit: 3 handicaps for Autopsic Leftovers. Also note that underdogs might intentionally drop a few points of TR after this writing to gain more handicaps.] |
Last edited by Plorg on %b %15, %2006 - %13:%May; edited 3 times in total |
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ex-convict
Joined: Jun 28, 2005
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 04:20 |
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Very good research and details. I just want an elven team to win. Nice work. |
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Laviak
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 05:21 |
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Great writeup Plorg! Obviously it's pretty early to make a prediction, but have you got an overall pick for the eventual winner?  |
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We Fink Wer Orks
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Help save blood bowl, foul an elf today!. |
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ex-convict
Joined: Jun 28, 2005
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 05:28 |
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Coach Con says: an elven team |
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Part of the NCBB and the NBFL.
Don't drop the soap. |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 06:15 |
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In an alternate universe where all of Plorg's Picks are completely accurate:
Alternate Universe Round 2:
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Silvan Seakings (339/293 Elf)
+ 9/1/0 vs Dark Elf
Agile cats for a change (283/272 Dark Elf)
+ 2/0/0 vs Elf
Assuming the Elfs didn't take too much damage from the 1st round Chaos, this should be a very tight match. The Elfs have fewer Tacklers and Blodgers than the Dark Elves' 1st round Amazon opponents, but higher speed. Tough match to call.
Plorg's Pick: Silvan Seakings by 1, taking some MNGs
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Gonzales Critters (292/253 Skaven)
+ 7/5/5 vs Dark Elf
Blood Red Dragons (307/292 Dark Elf)
+ 4/1/1 vs Skaven
These Dark Elves are strong contenders for the title, but they probably took some damage from the 1st round vs Undead. Still a tough match for the Skavens. I give the Dark Elves the edge.
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1
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Scharfe Biester (328/256 Chaos)
- 2/2/3 vs Dark Elf
Sanguine Savants (292/267 Dark Elf)
+ 3/2/1 vs Chaos
These Dark Elves have the ST and Guard to compete in the bashy game with these Chaos, so the AG advantage should win them the game. The Chaos have enough Tackle to cover all the Blodgers, so the Dark Elves will be taking some damage that might knock them out of the running.
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 1, taking some MNGs
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Chaotic Supastarz (263/224 Chaos)
+ 3/0/1 vs Wood Elf
Myranor Wanderers (270/264 Wood Elf)
+ 4/2/1 vs Chaos
These Wood Elfs might have a good shot at winning this tournament, but they don't have the treasury to replace any injuries. While these Wood Elves are expected to win against these Chaos, the damage sustained in this round might take them out of the running for the title.
Plorg's Pick: Myranor Wanderers by 2, taking some MNGs
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Alternate Universe Round 3:
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Silvan Seakings (339/293 Elf)
Blood Red Dragons (307/292 Dark Elf)
The Wood Elves will probably be more damaged than the Dark Elves from the 2nd round games.
Since the TR/TS is so close with handicaps already in the Dark Elves' favor, the 2nd round damage will give the Dark Elves the win with little to no damage.
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 2
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Sanguine Savants (292/267 Dark Elf)
Myranor Wanderers (270/264 Wood Elf)
This is where the Wood Elves' lack of treasury takes them out of the tournament.
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 1
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Alternate Universe Round 4:
Blood Red Dragons (307/292 Dark Elf)
Sanguine Savants (292/267 Dark Elf)
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1 |
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BooAhl
Joined: Sep 02, 2004
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 13:16 |
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Bad predictions. I think we will see an all skaven final. Wonder what Tassel thinks about that?
Go SKAVENS! |
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Jinxed
Joined: Jul 04, 2004
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 13:26 |
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So let me get this straight; if by some miracle I pull it off (winning vs the savants) I get to the final?
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Nuffle sucks |
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Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 13:35 |
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Nope, Jinxed, because then the strongest Chaos team plays your 3rd strongest Chaos.
Don't get demotivated by these bad prospects... I would like you to win the 1st round nevertheless.  |
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Jinxed
Joined: Jul 04, 2004
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| Posted:
May 15, 2006 - 13:46 |
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Dominik;
Let's state for the record that I would not like to face you.
If only because you play so slow. (yuk!)
Suppose I should be glad the odds are stacked against me huh?  |
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Nuffle sucks |
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BooAhl
Joined: Sep 02, 2004
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| Posted:
May 18, 2006 - 14:49 |
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| Dominik wrote: | Nope, Jinxed, because then the strongest Chaos team plays your 3rd strongest Chaos.
Don't get demotivated by these bad prospects... I would like you to win the 1st round nevertheless. |
How could that happen? I heard that the strongest Chaos will go out in its first game. Then I will beat the 3rd strongest and so on... |
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PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
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| Posted:
May 26, 2006 - 17:16 |
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Grats to plorg for predicting 7 out of 8 correctly!
Time for an update Plorg?
PeteW |
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"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
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Jinxed
Joined: Jul 04, 2004
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| Posted:
May 26, 2006 - 17:27 |
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| PeteW wrote: | Grats to plorg for predicting 7 out of 8 correctly!
Time for an update Plorg?
PeteW |
Not quite really. He predicted that you'd win with a 2 TD difference.
So I claim moral victory of those damn elves outguarding my poor chaos on top of a gazillion +ST.  |
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Nuffle sucks |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
May 26, 2006 - 19:07 |
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Round 1 Update:
Plorg's Pick: Silvan Seakings by 3
Actual Result: Silvan Seakings by 2 (11 players, 125k, 4x MNG)
Plorg's Pick: Agile cats for a change by 1
Actual Result: Agile cats for a change by 3 (15 players, 85k)
Plorg's Pick: Gonzales Critters by 2
Actual Result: Gonzales Critters by 1 (16 players w/Star, 160k)
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1 in OT
Actual Result: Blood Red Dragons by 1 (14 players w/Star, 85k, 2x MNG)
Plorg's Pick: Scharfe Biester by 1
Actual Result: Helena High by 2 (see Round 2)
Dominik's Chaos were out-casualtied by the Skaven!
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 2
Actual Result: Sanguine Savants by 1 (see Round 2)
Plorg's Pick: Chaotic Supastarz by 1 in OT
Actual Result: Chaotic Supastarz by 2 (13 players, 195k)
Plorg's Pick: Myranor Wanderers by 3
Actual Result: Myranor Wanderers by 1 (13 players, 110k, 1x MNG)
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Apparently I'm decent at picking the winners, but if you're betting then don't count on my picks for the point spread.
Helena High defeated Scharfe Biester without taking significant damage in Round 1,
but were then defeated by Sanguine Savants.
As for Round 2, I'm changing one pick to Agile cats for a change over Silvan Seakings.
Silvan Seakings sustained 4x MNG in Round 1, which gives them a current 348/224 tr/ts against 288/274.
FischerKing's 11 or 12 Pro Elfs will be giving away handicaps to a full team with 50 points more ts.
Add in the possibility of an Agile cat Poisoned Dagger-wielding Star Player against the Silvan AV 7,
and it really doesn't look so good anymore for the Pro Elfs.
I'll let the other picks stand, so I'm envisioning the semifinal having 3 Dark Elf teams plus the Myranor Wanderers. |
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Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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| Posted:
May 27, 2006 - 01:56 |
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7 of 8 isnt bad. But is it against the rules to revise your predictions going forward?  |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
May 30, 2006 - 19:33 |
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Didn't know there were rules to this sort of thing...? |
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