Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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 Posted:
May 30, 2006 - 19:48 |
 
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Im just making them up. youve proven prophetic so far with 9 out of 10 correct, hopefully that trend will continue |
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FischerKing
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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| Posted:
May 30, 2006 - 21:07 |
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BooAhl
Joined: Sep 02, 2004
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| Posted:
May 30, 2006 - 21:21 |
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Im happy I broke Plorg's Picks. To bad PeteW put and end to me breaking more of them. |
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ankkh
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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| Posted:
May 30, 2006 - 21:49 |
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Really cool with analyses and predictions. Feels like a real sportsite. Keep up the good work Plorg! |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Jun 03, 2006 - 08:42 |
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| Plorg wrote: | | I'll let the other picks stand, so I'm envisioning the semifinal having 3 Dark Elf teams plus the Myranor Wanderers. |
Semifinals:
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Agile cats for a change (291/274 Dark Elf)
15 players, 2 niggled, 60k
+ 4 +ST
+ 8 Blodgers
+ 6 Tackle/DT
+ 1 Strip Ball (vs 0 Sure Hands)
+ 1 handicap
Blood Red Dragons (305/283 Dark Elf)
15 players, 2 niggled, 30k
+ 4 +ST
+ 8 Blodgers
+ 6 Tackle/DT
+ 4 Guard (vs 2)
+ 2 Dirty Players (vs 1)
+ 10 FF higher
- No Kicker
This game should be a very close exciting match. The teams look statistically almost identical with plenty of juicy stat increases.
Blood Red Dragons have a slight Guard advantage, but the Agile Strip Baller could cause repeated headaches since the Dragons have no Sure Hands players.
Both teams have valuable niggled players, which could give either team the edge if their opponents niggle out.
While the Dragons have no Kicker, they have an FF lead of 10 which means they own the Kickoff events.
Very tough match to call.
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1 in OT
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Sanguine Savants (301/267 Dark Elf)
15 players, 3 niggled, 150k
+ 3 +ST
+ 4 Blodgers
+ 5 Tackle/DT
+ 1 Strip Ball (vs 1 Sure Hands)
+ 2 Dirty Players (vs 0*)
+ 6 Guard
Myranor Wanderers (277/254* Wood Elf) (*Skill TBD)
13 players, 3 niggled, 145k
+ 5 +AG
+ 7 Blodgers
+ 4 Tackle
+ 2 Strip Ball (vs 1 Sure Hands)
+ 3 Guard
This match comes down to whether the Savants can outbash the Wanderers while outplaying them at the same time.
The Savants have the strength and damage advantage, but the Wanderers have the AG spread around for the potential to make some crazy passing plays.
The Wood Elves are short a few players. They have the cash to staff up some rookies to feed the LoS, but will that be enough to stop the Dark Elves?
I think a Dark Elf Star will decide this match.
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 1 |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Jun 08, 2006 - 23:41 |
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Semifinal Update:
Plorg's Pick: Blood Red Dragons by 1 in OT
Actual Result: Blood Red Dragons by 3
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 1
Actual Result: Sanguine Savants by 1
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Final Match:
Blood Red Dragons (304/262 Dark Elf)
13 active players, 2 niggled, 1 MNG, 105k
+ 13/0/2 record vs Dark Elf
+ 4 +ST
+ 4 Guard
+ 2 +AG
+ 8 Blodgers
+ 6 Tackle/DT
+ 2 Dirty Players
+ 7 FF Higher
- No Kicker
Sanguine Savants (302/267 Dark Elf)
15 active players, 3 niggled, 135k
+ 5/0/0 record vs Dark Elf
+ 3 +ST
+ 6 Guard (vs 4)
+ 1 +AG
+ 4 Blodgers
+ 5 Tackle/DT
+ 5 Side Step
+ 1 Strip Ball (vs 0 Sure Hands)
+ 2 Dirty Players
Since this is a Dark Elf vs Dark Elf match, let me first talk about the treasury situation.
There is only one Dark Elf Star Player available at 60k. Now if both teams hire the Star, then neither team gets to use him and that money is lost from both teams. Both coaches will have to decide before the match if it is worth the risk (and whether they think their opponent thinks it is worth the risk, etc) to put up the Star Player cash only to waste it.
Note that due to technical limitations, one coach will have to host the game, so the opponent can check the team page to see if a Star was hired before hiring their own and joining the game...
The treasury situation is more complicated for the Blood Red Dragons.
With only 13 active players (vs 15), they have a more urgent need to fill their bench with players who will actually be playing in the game.
Their options look something like this:
- hire Star and freeboot one lineman
- hire one lineman and freeboot one lineman
- freeboot one lineman and hire a wizard
- freeboot three linemen (after dropping the MNG)
The Sanguine Savants have 75k after Star money, enough for a wizard.
Now remember that wizard fireball impacts are based on the target's AG, so a fireball really doesn't do that much against AG 4 teams.
But if they have the cash for it, the Savants might as well buy it for a Tournament final.
Savants have the advantage in the treasury situation. Now on to the teams...
This may be the closest TR/TS matchup in a FUMBBL Final. No handicaps.
While the Blood Red Dragons have more +ST increases, the Sanguine Savants have more Guard, so Plorg feels that the Savants have a slight ST advantage.
However, the Dragons have the advantage in the classic Tackle vs Dodge category with the same amount of Tackle (4 each) but twice as many Blodgers as the Savants. The Diving Tacklers on both teams are some extra gravy to discourage dodging, but they don't knock down dodgers on the block dice.
Both teams have 2 Dirty Players, so expect some merciless fouling destruction. The Dragons' DPs are a bit less valuable in other skills than the Savants' DPs, so the Dragons gain some advantage after everyone is sent off.
The Dragons have +7 FF which gives them a nice advantage in kickoffs.
After all that is said, what decides this match for Plorg is this: Side Stepping Guards.
Plorg's Pick: Sanguine Savants by 1 in OT |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Jun 26, 2006 - 02:15 |
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Switching to the Savants for the Final Pick was the right move,
as PeteW defeats Borgen's Blood Red Dragons to win the title.
Due to reload issues, the replay doesn't show the full game and it's tricky to piece together the scenario with the ball hopping around.
What we do see is the last half (2nd? OT?) where the Dragons are sorely outnumbered on the pitch 9-6.
Dark Elf Star Horkon Heartripper played for the Savants the entire half.
Over a 6 turn drive with lots of harassment by the Dragons, the Savants pull ahead with a TD.
Setting up for another kickoff, 11 Savants are on the field defending against 5 Dragons.
A pass to a Dragon Witch Elf almost set up to tie the game in turn 7, but the Savants Strip Baller was there to stop it.
He wasn't able to evade the Witch's Diving Tackle however and the ball was down.
The Dragons still had a turn 8 chance with the Jump Up Witch in range of the end zone, but some bad block dice ended that dream.
Congrats to PeteW for winning the Ulthuan Invitational II!
edit: link to match report |
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