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Poll
shall vanguard go back to school ?
yes its really to easy
28%
 28%  [ 20 ]
omg my 5 year old child knows the answer
22%
 22%  [ 16 ]
the answer is ... hmpf dont play so much blood bowl you confuse me
14%
 14%  [ 10 ]
i know the answer but i dont like to share wisdom
34%
 34%  [ 24 ]
Total Votes : 70


Vanguard



Joined: Nov 01, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:23 Reply with quote Back to top

as usual i asked my friends for some mathemtic help. and as usual they can calculate me all but nothing useful ^^

my problem
i want to know the cas rate of some events in LRB 5.0
claw alone
claw + mighty blow
claw + mighty blow + pilling on
claw + mighty blow + pilling on ONLY for injury roll

claw i got this myself
15/36*1/6
claw + mighty
15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6

the more honourful part i give to your more mathematic genius
Vanguard



Joined: Nov 01, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:24 Reply with quote Back to top

ah pls post the formula so i can learn something ^^
Optihut



Joined: Dec 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:39 Reply with quote Back to top

"shall vanguard go back to school ? yes its really to easy"

Was that on purpose?
Britnoth



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:43 Reply with quote Back to top

LRB5 Claw + MB + PO, where you only want a casualty (ie rerolling a KO for injury) is 31%

and if you have claw + mb id be rerolling armour every time, so no idea about only on just injury... extimate half way between without PO and always using it?
f0rd



Joined: Jun 23, 2004

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:45 Reply with quote Back to top

claw + mighty blow + pilling on : 21/36 * (15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 ) + 15/36 * (1-(26/36*26/36)) could be right Smile

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Sleep



Joined: Feb 09, 2005

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 18:55 Reply with quote Back to top

1+2=57

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The more skill one has, the less luck one needs.

With skill and luck you get snake eyes!
nin



Joined: May 27, 2005

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 19:00 Reply with quote Back to top

do you really want to know? Shocked
Enar



Joined: Mar 05, 2004

Post   Posted: Dec 17, 2006 - 19:20 Reply with quote Back to top

42!
Vanguard



Joined: Nov 01, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:02 Reply with quote Back to top

damn you all Razz
i had to calculate it myself ... and the result is scary... really scary
so i show you the result and let you test it Razz

claw + mighty + pilling
i splitt it in 3 parts
first event: no armor break roll 2-6, so pilling on
15/36*15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 = 7.6 %
second event: armor roll 7, so mighty blow use
1/6*1/6+1/6*1/6 = 5.56 %
third event: armor roll 8, so pilling + mighty on inj
15/36*10/36+15/36*10/36 = 23.15 %

total scary 36.30 % not to mention kos ^^
SnakeSanders



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:27 Reply with quote Back to top

fen wrote:
hunter wrote:
Britnoth wrote:
5. Claw mb PO all on 3 normal skill rolls. Claw in vault is BETTER than LRB claw on av9, as you can now stack claw + mighty blow on the armour roll. these 3 skills on av9 give 31% chance to cas per knockdown, thats plain sick.


Please show how you calculated this.

Thanks,
~hunter


Laffin_Loon @ Specialist Games wrote:

On a discussion about chaos and mutations I calculated the probablilities of injury in various circumstances. With piling on I assumed that KOs were rerolled (I'm a real chaos player).

Here you go (copy/paste job).....

Old claw+2 and RSC+2 (2 abilities) will cause a casualty at the following percentages of successful blocks...
AV7: 30.0% .......... AV8: 24.3% .......... AV9: 17.4%

New Claw with MB and POn (3 abilities) assuming that you re-roll knocked outs...
AV7: 31.0% ........... AV8: 31.0% ......... AV9: 31.0%

A bog standard player - for those who don't know - has probabilities of..
AV7: 6.9% ......... AV8: 4.6% ............ AV9: 2.7%

And that human MB POn blitzer (2 skills)...
AV7: 31.0% ......... AV8: 21.0% ............ AV9: 16.0%


That's where 31% comes from. If you sit down and work out the %s (Including rerolling KOs or lower for PO) then it'll come out like those.

Remember that the general on pitch bloodiness has been turned up somewhat because aging has been removed. This is why the Apoth is weaker and there is the ability for certain players to become killing machines. Of course, they jury is still out where Claw/PO/MB is concerned. It might possibly destroy the ability for Orcs/Dwarfs and other High AV teams to function against Chaos/Nurgle/Chaos Dwarf. Resulting in them avoiding those match ups in open leagues...

Edit: You'll also notice that the Human MB/PO Blitzer is nearly as lethal as the LRB4.0 Claw/RSC player.
Emphasy



Joined: Jun 14, 2004

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:30 Reply with quote Back to top

All this sounds good, but since the random dice generator sucks here you cant really count on math etc as you know you'll get F-ed over when trying to do so:)
Vanguard



Joined: Nov 01, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:42 Reply with quote Back to top

i think the Loon miss the av 7 roll + mighty blow and so he has 5 % lower than me

and cheer ... at 2 trait ww will be such a pain ... really annoying, and you dont have a good dp to remove him -.-
sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:45 Reply with quote Back to top

I think I did some calculation somewhere else either. 31% cas rate is too low. That sucks. A 9 players DP foul is a 41.6% cas chances... And they did worser...So much for more bloodiness.

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Join NL Raises from the Ashes
pac



Joined: Oct 03, 2005

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 17:52 Reply with quote Back to top

sk8bcn wrote:
I think I did some calculation somewhere else either. 31% cas rate is too low. That sucks. A 9 players DP foul is a 41.6% cas chances... And they did worser...So much for more bloodiness.

But how many 9-player DP fouls do you get to make per game? Without Get the Ref, or Bribe the Ref, or lots and lots of DPs against a weaker team, probably just 2 or 3?

You can make an MB/PO/(Claw) blitz every turn (and maybe some blocks too), with no fears of being sent off - until your opponent runs out of players, of course!

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Vanguard



Joined: Nov 01, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 18, 2006 - 18:03 Reply with quote Back to top

a player 9 foul has a 27% chance to make a cas .... and if you compare it to the 36 % of a block and you compare the risk then its a joke -.-

no rr of the inj roll ....
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