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Nelphine
Online
Underworld Denizens
[B]
Legend
Underworld Denizens
Record
19/7/9
Win Percentage
64%
Lizardman
[R]
Emerging Star
Lizardman
Record
61/19/59
Win Percentage
51%
Overall
Super Star
Overall
Record
306/116/236
Win Percentage
55%
Archive

2019

2019-07-11 04:49:30
rating 5.7

2013

2013-08-24 12:51:34
rating 4.4
2013-06-04 02:48:26
rating 5.6
2013-04-22 03:32:37
rating 5.5
2013-02-27 09:30:14
rating 3.9
2013-02-24 20:15:12
rating 5.3

2012

2012-11-20 08:22:39
rating 4.9
2012-11-09 12:38:32
rating 4.5
2012-09-21 04:54:32
rating 4.8
2012-09-06 04:57:04
rating 5
2012-08-03 03:32:33
rating 4.4
2012-07-20 03:03:14
rating 5
2012-06-26 09:06:04
rating 5.7
2012-05-29 20:17:29
rating 2.3
2012-05-11 01:19:46
rating 4.3
2012-03-29 16:41:11
rating 4.8
2012-02-22 19:25:14
rating 2.6

2011

2011-06-25 16:07:38
rating 4.3
2011-05-28 17:15:33
rating 2.9
2011-06-25 16:07:38
10 votes, rating 4.3
Life Expectancy
So I want to see how long various players can be expected to live, in theory based in the box; obviously these numbers will not be remotely accurate for any individual game, and they're probably not going to be all that accurate in the long term either, since individual games make too much difference (playing vs elfballers followed by Azure Claw Squad). But I like to do number crunching, and people can rant, flame, or try to help, or simply comment, or ignore. Whatever works.

Here goes:

Assumptions:
45 blocks against your team; 14 of those have mighty blow; 1 has mighty blow and claw; 1 has mighty blow and piling on; 1 has mighty blow, piling on, and claw; 1 has claw
1 crowd surf per game; all blocks are assumed to be 2die against. 2 fouls per game, one with dirty player. Mighty blow will have it's +1 split between armour/injury; dirty player will always have it's +1 added to the injury roll. Piling on will always be used to try to break armour and to avoid stuns (this reflects the low number of piling on blocks per game).

Linemen take 2/3 of the blocks; all linemen split their blocks equally; all non linemen split their blocks equally

typical team has 5 linemen, 7 non linemen


AV 7:
Linesmen, no b/w/d; 30 blocks, 22.5 knockdowns, 7 knockdowns with mighty blow, 2/3 w/ MB+C, 2/3 w/ MB+PO, 2/3 w/ CPOMB, 2/3 w/ C, 13.5 normal

breaks:
5.625 breaks from normal, 2.91 breaks from MB w/+1 injury, 1.1667 breaks from MB w/o +1 injury, 0.2778 breaks from MB+C w/ +1 injury, 0.111 breaks from MB+C w/o +1 injury, 0.2778 breaks from C, 0.2778 breaks from MBPO w/ +1 re-roll injury, 0.111 breaks from MBPO w/ re-roll injury no +1, 0.07716 breaks from MBPO w/ +1 injury no re-roll, and 0.031 breaks from MBPO w/o +1 and no injury re-roll,, 0.2778 breaks from CMBPO w/ +1 re-roll injury, 0.111 breaks from CMBPO w/ re-roll injury no +1, 0.07716 breaks from CMBPO w/ +1 injury no re-roll, and 0.031 breaks from CMBPO w/o +1 and no injury re-roll.

totals:
0.55555 breaks with +1 and re-roll on injury
0.22222 breaks with re-roll on injury
3.33109 breaks with +1 on injury
7.34255 breaks unmodified injury

cas:
0.26577 + 0.06786 + 0.9253 + 1.2238
= 2.4827 casualties

* 1/6 = 0.41378 deaths to linesmen per game

* 1/5 = 0.0828 deaths to individual linesmen per game



= 12.08 games average lifespan for an AV 7 linesmen



Positional, no block/wrestle/dodge, AV 7:

0.41378 deaths to linesmen per game /2 (half number of blocks to positionals) = 0.20689
/7 (number of positionals) = 0.029556 deaths to invidividual positonal per game



= 33.83 games average lifespan for an AV 7 positional



These numbers seem awfully high. Let's explore why:

TO BE CONTINUED

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Comments
Posted by pythrr on 2011-06-25 16:12:03
sorry

i fell asleep at the first sign of math
Posted by easilyamused on 2011-06-25 16:19:23
pythrr you blog whore :D
Posted by pythrr on 2011-06-25 16:29:15
i prefer blog slutwalker, thank you very much

RESPECT!
Posted by Muramasa on 2011-06-25 17:37:23
Cool to see someone come forward with some math

keep it up ^^
Posted by Mr_Foulscumm on 2011-06-25 20:19:09
Math isn't cool.

Nice work still :)
Posted by Nelphine on 2011-06-26 06:34:02
you just wait until I really get the math ball rolling; these numbers are just what I could do while at work and dealing with guests.

question to anyone out there: How terrible are my assumptions? (As an average over the course of like 10 games)