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jdmickleburgh
Last seen 1 hour ago
Ogre
Super Star
Ogre
Record
66/60/274
Win Percentage
24%
Goblin
Legend
Goblin
Record
51/39/99
Win Percentage
37%
Overall
[R]
Star
Overall
Record
214/138/398
Win Percentage
38%
Archive

2018

2018-09-23 07:56:20
rating 6
2018-09-03 17:11:32
rating 6
2018-08-30 09:10:36
rating 5.4
2018-08-10 19:50:40
rating 5.3
2018-08-02 17:35:29
rating 6
2018-07-22 18:31:23
rating 5.4
2018-05-08 07:23:26
rating 6
2018-04-24 08:05:29
rating 6
2018-04-15 09:59:46
rating 6
2018-03-31 17:43:04
rating 5.9
2018-03-06 16:43:34
rating 5.7
2018-02-24 20:30:14
rating 5.7
2018-02-14 18:18:57
rating 5.7
2018-02-04 09:26:54
rating 5.9

2017

2017-12-14 18:28:46
rating 6
2017-01-15 12:47:28
rating 5.4
2017-01-01 16:52:33
rating 5.5

2016

2016-12-23 10:57:42
rating 5.4
2016-12-14 17:19:26
rating 6
2016-12-11 11:55:58
rating 5
2016-12-01 18:06:37
rating 5.3
2016-11-22 17:23:50
rating 6
2016-11-19 16:28:35
rating 5.6
2016-10-30 13:48:58
rating 6
2016-10-19 16:48:37
rating 5
2016-10-11 16:11:15
rating 5.9
2016-10-04 21:35:14
rating 6
2016-09-26 18:56:08
rating 6
2016-08-01 11:11:08
rating 4.9
2016-07-01 19:49:29
rating 5.5
2016-06-15 18:54:05
rating 5.7
2016-06-09 17:22:31
rating 5
2016-06-01 18:58:13
rating 5
2016-05-08 10:54:58
rating 5.4
2016-04-30 21:50:15
rating 5.7
2016-04-26 08:38:00
rating 5
2016-04-25 00:07:04
rating 5.4
2016-04-21 18:39:51
rating 5.3
2016-04-21 14:45:33
rating 5
2016-03-13 12:26:48
rating 5.2
2016-03-07 09:27:31
rating 5.3
2016-02-02 18:50:13
rating 4.8
2016-01-31 17:43:07
rating 6
2016-01-30 01:10:36
rating 5.6
2016-01-22 12:56:13
rating 5.4

2015

2015-12-29 13:43:59
rating 5.5
2015-12-21 18:17:48
rating 5.1
2015-12-18 19:46:31
rating 4.3
2015-12-16 09:49:59
rating 5
2015-12-10 18:10:36
rating 4.4
2015-11-18 19:17:32
rating 5.4
2015-11-07 09:32:14
rating 4.3
2017-01-01 16:52:33
10 votes, rating 5.5
Secret League Power Predictions: Results!
Back in the summer of 2016, I ran a competition to predict the top 3 and bottom 3 ranking Secret League team. Original Thread is here. 25 coaches entered with their predictions and now is the time to announce the results.

I checked the rankings on koadah's awesome data site this morning and then summed how far each prediction deviated from the actual placing of that race. This generated a single number for each coach which is the amount of places they were wrong in total.

machjacob 12
JackH 21
JackassRampant 28
Calthor 35
DrunkRobot 35
Garion 38
cowhead 41
ArrestedDevelopment 41
Khan-amil 44
Beanchilla 45
jevouse 45
Critical_Code 50
Silviackk 54
LogicsFate 55
JellyBelly 57
azzie 61
DrPoods 64
ahalfling 65
learnthehardway 70
Wex 71
salinas55 75
Lorebass 105
Arktoris 109
Hrafne 126
krom72 130

And these were the top and bottom 3 from the data:
1. Water Elemental (appeared in 4/25 top 3 predictions, congrats Lorebass, Calthor, jevouse and machjacob )
2. Numas (appeared in 1/25 top 3 prediction, congrats DrunkRobot)
3. Von Carstein (appeared in 2/25 top 3 predictions, congrats JellyBelly and machjacob)

2 from bottom. Nautican (appeared in 15/25 bottom 3 predictions)
1 from bottom. Lumbria (appeared in 9/25 bottom 3 predictions)
bottom. Squig (appeared in 7/25 bottom 3 predictions)

Congratulations to the winner, machjacob!

Let's have a look at his amazingly accurate prediction (link) in more detail.

1st: Water Elemental - finished top, diff of 0
2nd: Bretonnia - finished 4th, diff of 2
3rd: Von Carstein - finished 3rd, diff of 0
2 from bottom: Nautican - finished 2 from bottom, diff of 0
1 from bottom: Squig - finished bottom, diff of 1
bottom: Centigor - finished 58th - diff of 9.

machjacob predicted 3 of the 6 positions perfectly, 1 was off by one, one was off by two and it was only predicting centigor bottom which hurt him.

A few other surprises from the predictions:
  • Gnoblar were by far the biggest surprise, appearing in 13/25 predictions in the bottom 3 and actually finishing a (slightly more respectable) 50/67. This threw off a lot of predictions.

  • Black Dwarfs were predicted in the top 3 of 5 entries and actually placed 29th.


Poker chips and fumbbl dice are on their way to machjacob. Best wishes for 2017 are on their way to all of you.
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Comments
Posted by JackH on 2017-01-01 21:18:55
Nothing for second place. Shame