Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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 Posted:
Mar 02, 2014 - 06:58 |
 
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And with playoff-critical Game 5's on the horizon, it's time for tough love and bold talk - predictions!
Since I'm in the hunt in Albion, I'll leave those games to someone else, and just flail at Bretonnia...
o #1 Serpents Coast Scavengers vs. #3 Uzkulak Pirates
o #2 Chupayotl Shark-Toads vs. #5 Barak Varr Goldlords
o #4 Frostheim United vs. #7 Dark Lands Predators
o #6 Nidhoggstad Icedragons vs. #8 TBD (winner of Tor Elyr Hurricanes vs. Gaen Vale Starlights)
We'll start with the lower seeds first (mainly to give me time to warm up to that #1/#3 game)...
o Nidhoggstad Icedragons vs. TBD (winner of Tor Elyr Hurricanes vs. Gaen Vale Starlights)
The Icedragons, always having been a post-season threat, charged into their early games with an amazing start, upsetting the two-time champion Goldlords and reigning two-time champion Pirates. And then... collapse, losing to two lesser-known (if also well-coached) teams that are both now in better positions for the post-season.
But the 'Dragons remain a well-developed team led by a proven coach, with 3 St 4 players, one Star killer, team-wide block-spam and Frenzy to spare.
Regardless whether the Hurricanes or Starlights win, it will be AV 7 Ag 4 elf-ball vs. Norse bash with only 2 Tacklers. The Hurricanes have 3 (active) dodgers, the 'Lights only have 2, but all are well-developed and both teams could pose some serious problems. Ag 4 can do anything, and if these teams get on a roll they will be hard to stop, but otoh they themselves have little Block skill, and so are at a disadvantage in any mix-up. And if the Norse get on any sort of a bash streak there will be fewer and fewer elfs to stay on that streak, and to stop the norse onslaught on both Offense and Defense.
The team that stays most disciplined and best controls the position game should win, and from past showings that should be the 'Dragons, but Nuffle may well have a hand in the final outcome even more than most games.
Prediction: 2:1 Icedragons, but not without (or in spite of?) some heart-stopping comeback efforts by the elfs.
o #4 Frostheim United vs. #7 Dark Lands Predators
2 Chaos Dwarf teams face off, Frostheim U with a 110 TV advantage, mostly wrapped up in a rookie Mino (which the Predators don't have) and their 12th and 13th players who will be riding the bench to start. The Predators 6 core dwarfs have more MB and their Bulls are more developed, while Frostheim's dwarfs have more Guard with better developed Hobgoblins.
Neither coach has particularly stood out this season in their previous 4 games (the Preds faced historically stronger teams to start), but with AV 9 vs. AV 9, this commentator will put his money on the position of Frostheim U (with the shoving power of their St 5+Horns Mino) over the simple bash of the Predators.
Prediction: 2:1 Frostheim United, despite a valiant effort at the tie by the Predators, but they may pay a price if the Predators' bash kicks in.
o #2 Chupayotl Shark-Toads vs. #5 Barak Varr Goldlords
Here's a true wildcard to predict - the slow grinders vs. the unpredictable leapers.
I could list the pros/cons, and there are many in the favour of one or other of the teams, but I think it will come down to three factors that each weigh against the 'Toads: 1) the 'Toads have only 1 Blocker + 1 Wrestler to face the Block-spam of the Dwarfs. This will not only make position game more difficult but also put added strain on the RR's that Slann need for their leaping game; 2) the 'Toads have no Guard to answer the Goldlords' 3 and their two St 4 players, compounding #1; and 3) the 'Toads have no developed defenders besides their Diving Tacklers, no ballhawks, no Tacklers, only 1 Wrestler to stop the +St Dwarven Blodge runner. Coach Subs has proven himself on this site, but unless Coach Uzkulak makes some unexpected mistakes, the best the Shark-Toads can look forward to on the ballcarrier will be -2d leaping blitzes with Wrestle, while the overall position game will be a scramble at best.
Prediction: 2:1 Barak Varr Goldlords, but only because the Shark-Toads run out of RR (and/or players) for the tie.
o #1 Serpents Coast Scavengers vs. #3 Uzkulak Pirates
A game that means nothing to the Scavengers (except bragging rights), and everything to the Pirates...
But, actually, that's not true. The Scavengers have the Conference and the bye locked, but they want to win this game if they really don't want to face the Pirates twice - if the Pirates win (and possibly if they tie), they're in the playoffs, and they've demonstrated a distinct ability to make it to the finals... this is a tough game to call.
The Pirates lost their scoring machine but still have their super-star killer, Siemon. Half the team has Block and several have Guard, including one of the BG's, to face the St 4-5 lizards. But they don't have any Tackle and only 1 (MA 7) Wrestler - no developed ballhawks, no real defenders to address the skinks (beyond a Blocking Break-Tackle Ogre who can get 3d on them...) However, the Pirates' ClawPoMB attrition game disregards AV, which will be a something the Scavengers may not have experience with.
On their side, the Scavengers have only 2 Blockers, and an equal lack of real defenders (beond one DT-ss'er. And NO fluff on their home page!) But Coach Ttorvatn has been on a roll, and six St 4 & one St 5 are hard to argue with, regardless, and Stunty dodging is independent of TZ's.
The Pirates are giving away over 250k in TV, and that may be the difference, depending what is taken.
Prediction: 3:1 Serpents Coast Scavengers, with a late-half defensive score to seal the deal.
~IF~ all this were to happen, the final rankings would look like... 1. Serpents Coast Scavengers, 5-0-0 record = 10 pts
2. Frostheim United, Coach bladten, 3-1-1 record = 7 pts
3. Barak Varr Goldlords, Coach uzkulak, 3-1-1 record = 7 pts
4. Nidhoggstad Icedragons, Coach Winni, 3-0-2 record = 6 pts
5. Chupayotl Shark-Toads, Coach Subs, 3-0-2 record = 6 pts
6. Uzkulak Pirates, Coach Chainsaw, 2-1-2 record = 5 pts
Lastly, none of this predicts tie-breaker points. There is a LOT of bash in all 4 of these games, and that can go either way, and if it catches fire (or fails utterly) anything is possible. Likewise for any game that involves Ag 4 - specifically the Slann and the Elves. Even to upsetting my predictions, as unthinkable as that my be! 
But on that note I'll also state, for the record, that altho' I've made (sometimes surprisingly accurate!) predictions before, I have less faith in any of these than I might. This is in part due to the previous comment, but also because several of these coaches are somewhat unknown. The final word?... if you're the favoured coach, don't get cocky - if you're the underdog, do your homework and bring your A-game. There are no guarantees until it's mathematically impossible, so take the reins and make it happen.
And, of course, if you disagree (or care to try predicting Albion!), bring the smack talk! These are going to be some great games, so let's get pumped for them now!
And No Bad Luck!  |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Mar 03, 2014 - 04:45 |
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Massif Orcal Mo’rodaz vs. Foul Peak Lowdown Rats
“Welcome lady-rats and gentle-orcs, to the Rat Pits in scenic Foul Peak. I’m Jim Johnson, today joined by Bloodbowl hall of famer, Bob Bifford.”
“Hello Jim! Great to be back here for another brutaful game of bloodbowl!”
“And what a brutal one it will be. The Lowdown Rats are on a bit of an unfortunate streak this season between an opening game loss, a travel impeding blizzard, and the disappearance of at least one of their opponents, and they’re now three-point underdogs against the favorites to take the last place in the Albion playoffs.”
“Speaking of favorites Jim, did you see the new bloodweiser babes the stadium hired? I’d like to help them disappear, if you know what I mean.”
“No one ever does. And here come the Rats!”
“Not exactly the warmest welcome eh Jim?”
“Yea Bob, a lot of the Rat fans were expecting more this season after last season’s championship run. Plus the Orcs make a lot more noise.”
“And here come the ORCSSSSS!!”
“Down boy! Down!”
“The Orcs are up 17 casualties on the season and I think everyone here is expecting a good old fashioned massacre to get that up here.”
“Indeed Bob and we can see the extra apothecary over by the Rats bench as they setup for the toss.”
***************
“Here we go Bob, the Rats are all setup for the return. Fan favorite Bob is back deep…”
“Fan favorite is an odd name for a rat…”
“Oh Bob… and the kick is up. A short one just past the line of scrimmage and lands near the feet of Bob, Ackni and Bit already heading up the far sideline as the Rats secure the ball.”
“Orcules and Lucky are already on them though Jim. The Zero-out defense is perfect for shutting down those quick roundabout lanes. No room to maneuver whatsoever.”
“Spot on there as Ackni goes down immediately to a vicious hit from Lucky. Seems a bit dazed for the moment.”
“The Rats haven’t faced a true smash-mouth team this season, and it’s already showing.”
“Bob what’s your strategy going in here for the Rats?”
“Simply this: Don’t get hit.”
“Words of wisdom, from Bob Bifford as we get the first whistle of the game. The referee seems to be pointing towards Da Howlaz.”
“Yea they’re calling curbstomping on him, and a well earned one it was. Ackni is gonna be picking up his teeth for a bit.”
“Speaking of Bit, he’s moving out to the center of the pitch, and it looks like there’s nobody around him!”
“The Orcs like to get into their fouls, and that’s left a huge hole in the defense. That reminds me Jim, did I ever tell you the story of the time me and that witch elf-“
“Thank you Bob for your expertise. There’s the hand off to Felicity. She’s got no pressure around, and it’s a deep ball….. CAUGHT! Bit has it deep in the Orc half!”
“It’s not in there yet Jim. Orcules already closed the gap, and here comes the Fridge… OW that’s gonna leave a mark… or a few dozen broken bones…”
“FUMBLE! Loose ball in front of the Orc endzone!”
“The Orcs are trying to get around it, and the crowd is starting to boo them. Can’t say I blame them… three orcs against a rat...”
“It looks like Bob is trying to get over there… and THAT’S a hit! Blindsided by Junior and he’s down… way down…”
“The Apothecary is already on its way out… he doesn’t look optimistic.”
“The cart is standing by… but, he’s moving. Somehow he’s moving.”
“Don’t worry, those graves won’t go to waste. Plenty of time left.”
“Always the motivational speaker Bob. And I think your right! Bit gets dropped from behind by Knucklez, he’s down and probably out for good!”
“Nothing quite like a ratnap, and these fans are loving the slaughter.”
“Very true Bob, and the other apothecary is already taking Bit off the field. We’ll get the official report in a little while.”
“That’s gonna leave the ball wide open for the Orcs, and already the screams of agony are back. This time Ackni gets a boot where the sun don’t shine, and he’s down. Carts are starting to line up near the Rat sideline.”
“It’s a regular mouse hunt Jim, and the Orcs are content to fight amongst themselves as to who gets the ball.”
“Can’t blame them. This is turning into exactly - what IS THAT RAT DOING!?”
“A suicidal gutter runner… is there a more beautiful thing Jim?”
“It’s Tochr going for it! Lucky goes for the tackle… no! Tochr’s free! He dives on the ball! Orcs on top!”
“The refs are trying to tear the pile apart. Wonder if there’ll be anything but fur underneath?”
“TOUCHDOWN! Tochr has it! The crowd is going absolutely mad!”
“So would that be first, second, or third blood Jim?”
“Whichever it is there isn’t enough yet. The crowd cheering for ‘Toke’ and there’s the celebration coming over the speakers. We’ve got us a game here!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsYlU-fGx3M&t=0m8s
***********
“Late in the first half here, and the Orcs have the ball deep in Rat territory.”
“They can’t keep this up Jim. Down five players before halftime, the Rats just don’t have the spread they need on defense.”
“Make that six Bob, another one drops to the pitch. Still breathing unfortunately.”
“Yea Jim, but time is running out on the Orcs. They need to get the ball moving now.”
“I think they’re setting up for the pass… Stabba is going deep, but Bit has come back and he’s giving Stabba a hard time. That new iron plate on his skull is really working out for him.”
“Not a great spot for Stabba. Here comes Pinten from the back, and down he goes! That’s a bit of bloodletting the Rats fans needed!”
“And that’s going to do it for the first half, and what’s left of the Rats is drudging back to the locker room to beg for mercy from Nuffle.”
“Seven on eleven to start the second half Jim… think any of the Rats will end the game on the field?”
“I’m sure a few will Bob… we’ll run out of corpse carts eventually!”
************
“It’s been a brutal start to the half Bob. These rats just can’t put together a defense with so few bodies.”
“The Rats can always ask divisional rival Pillars for a few secrets to their necromancy. Might come in handy once or twice a half.”
“Very unlikely there Bob. About as unlikely as the Rats seeing the ball anytime – FUMBLE!!!!! Kahn drops Remo and out comes the ball!”
“The Orcs are loading up another rock, but will it fall in time?”
“I don’t think they’ll need it Bob. The Orcs are already jumping on the ball and have it back, but it’s going to be a pretty long field to trudge.”
“Another Rat hits the dirt again, as the Orcs gather their offense again Jim. It’s an odd formation though… vaguely elvish.”
“I think they’re going for some air ball here. “
“Orcs throwing the ball? Next you’ll be telling me my buddy Morg was taken out by a gutter runner.”
“Be that as it may Bob, the Orcs have the ball again. Remo with it, reels back, and COMPLETE TO KNUCKLES! And he’s going to go all the way for the score!”
“Now we’re back to normal. Orcs killing rats, rats staying down. Nature at it’s finest.”
“And with that we’re all square halfway through the second half.”
***********
“And with time winding down, the rats seem like they’re content to play for the draw here…”
“Ah yes! Run like hell, a time tested strategy for most Skaven coaches in all circumstances.”
“To be fair, they are down almost two rats to an orc, and the orcs are content to keep smashing faces until they get to the ball.”
“A very good point Jim, but the rats are still fighting for survival… or to win, I’m not sure which one right now. Elexi puts Knuckles on his ass with a vicious left hook, and there’s an open running lane!”
“Tochr has the ball, and hands off to Bit before getting as far away as possible! There he goes down the far sideline!”
“Reno and Stabby are after him though Bob, and they’re closing the distance!”
“Leave it to a goblin to try to save the game for the Orcs.”
“It’s a steeplechase! Bit against Stabby! Stabby dives for it… AND THE STIFF ARM FROM BIT! HE THROWS STABBY TO THE GROUND AND WALKS INTO THE ENDZONE! THE RATS WIN! THE RATS WIN! THE FANS ARE STORMING THE FIELD! THE LOOTING HAS BEGUN!”
“I’ve never seen an Orc team run so fast before. They’re already in the locker rooms.”
“The fans are screaming Ironrat! Bit hoisted on a tower of fans! What an upset! I haven’t seen a celebration like this since Reikland defeated Darkside twenty years ago Bob! Bob!?”
“Hey Jim, hurry up! The Big Moot elf cuties are being given away!”
“Well that’ll be it for us! Join us next time for another great game of bloodbowl!” |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 03, 2014 - 09:32 |
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With a GR and Lino niggled, and another Rat Lino MNG, and not a scratch on the Orcs.
Classic rat win.
Which is just one of the many, many reasons why we all hate them so much. 
o #1 Nilfheim Lumberjacks vs. #2 Black Chasm Rush
o #3 Pillars of Nagash vs. #4 New Bretonnia Expatriates
o #5 Wasteland Vagabonds vs. #6 Foul Peak Lowdown Rats
Any takers on doing the predictions for these battles? |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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FRSHMN
Joined: Feb 25, 2013
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Mar 03, 2014 - 10:29 |
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It's like I always say: Lead your trumps!
Orcs had a great start killing two rats (but both apos did a more or less great job, too), but the Rats had speed. First half could have seen the equalizer though, as you somehow jumped on the trail I was laying out for you. Goblin in scoring range as a bluff, a blitzer one gfi away from scoring as the true plan A. But all re-rolls have been spent and with the last gutter runner, the rats blocked plan A, too. So no luck in first half (no luck in scoring... cas-wise it was looking good).
Second half and the Orcs marching downfield, scoring in turn 4 (I think) to have the option on the win. But then, defense was too lightly and the rats found a whole to slip through the net. Unfortunately, the Diving Tackling Gobbo did a great job, but the Rat's blitzer did even a better one. So it was 2-1 rats in a game, that both sides would not see drawed.
Grats to Nagi, maybe this season will have a happy end in the end  |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Mar 03, 2014 - 23:12 |
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Round 4 has just finished in Bretonnia, so it is time for the official Who Can Do What? analysis of the final round - and I think it is the closest one we've ever seen.
Bretonnia Conference
The Serpents Coast Scavengers are in the driving seat for the conference, although contrary to popular opinion they are not quite there yet. A draw in their final game would seal the deal for them, but if they were to lose by a few touchdowns and take a lot of casualties (against the infamous Pirates), they could slip to 2nd. Either way, they are guaranteed a place in the Cup.
The Chupayotl Shark-Toads are hot on their heels, and are the one team who can ruin the Scavengers' party. They'd need a big win though, and a Scavengers loss. A win guarantees them a Cup place, while a draw might not be enough. A loss would probably see them drop out of the Cup places - that is how tight it is!
There are four teams bunched on 5 points, all with a shot at the Cup. None of them are playing each other, which makes it very hard to predict what is needed! In fact, they could all win and two of them would still not get in. Their life is made easier if the Shark-Toads lose, but otherwise, it looks like one of the Uzkulak Pirates, Frostheim United, Barak Varr Goldlords and Gaen Vale Starlights will be in. All need to try and win, and hope the others slip up/give up tie-breaker points. The Pirates are in the strongest position, but they play the conference leaders in the final game. Frostheim United are next in tiebreaker points, but they face an unpredictable mirror match against chaos dwarves. The Goldlords can help the others out with a win, while the Starlights are in the weakest position due to their tiebreaker.
It is worth noting that if results go against them, any of the above teams could possibly find themselves in the relegation playoffs as well!
The Nidhoggstad Icedragons have to win to make it into the cup - although a win would by no means guarantee anything. They'd also have to hope that the Pirates, United and the Goldlords lost. A win keeps them safe from relegation, but a loss could see them sucked into the relegaiton playoffs.
The Dark Lands Predators are in a more difficult position. A win against Frostheim United wouldn't be enough to get them into the Cup, but would keep them out of relegation trouble as long as their tiebreaker score doesn't get a lot worse. A draw would leave them vulnerable if either of the bottom two teams win against each other, while a loss would definitely see them involved in relegation (probably the playoffs).
Finally, the Tor Elyr Hurricanes and the Amazon Isle Rangers face off in a relegation battle. The loser is pretty much guaranteed automatic relegation. A win would guarantee they'd get into the relegation playoffs at worst. A draw is enough for the Hurricanes, but a win would lessen the chances of playoff risk. They'll both be hoping the Icedragons or the Predators lose, meaning a win would get them out of the playoff positions. |
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Last edited by gjopie on %b %03, %2014 - %23:%Mar; edited 1 time in total |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 03, 2014 - 23:26 |
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By the way, with these final round games, please feel free to advertise when they'll be played - I'm sure there will be plenty of other coaches interested in spectating! |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 03, 2014 - 23:29 |
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| gjopie wrote: | The Serpents Coast Scavengers are in the driving seat for the conference, although contrary to popular opinion they are not quite there yet...
...The Chupayotl Shark-Toads are hot on their heels, and are the one team who can ruin the Scavengers' party. They'd need a big win though, and a Scavengers loss... |
At 6 points, it's possible their win/tie/loss points could tie, but at 8(!) tie-breaker points back, I'm not sure "hot on their heels" is quite apt, and "big win" is perhaps an understatement.
But you are correct, it's far from mathematically impossible, admittedly! AND the Scavs are playing the Pirates, who can certainly dish out the Cas, so 2 reasonably big games would, combined, do the job.
But the 'Toads need a 9 point shift to avoid going to the 2nd tie-breaker (flat TD for + Cas for). |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...)
Last edited by Smeat on %b %03, %2014 - %23:%Mar; edited 1 time in total |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Mar 03, 2014 - 23:33 |
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As a vocal opponent of the Pirates' clawpombing ability, I'd have thought you'd be the last person to rule a high-CAS game out! They need an 8 tie-breaker point swing, which means, for example, 3-0 either way and 4 casualties caused by the Pirates. Yes, it looks very unlikely, but the OWCC engravers haven't got started on the Conference winners board just yet...
Edit: They actually need an 8.5 point swing really, because as you say, they have an inferior second tie-breaker. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 03, 2014 - 23:35 |
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(crosspost edit - see above)
Yeah, and actually the 8 (or 9) point shift can be divided between the two games - the 'Toads gaining part and the Scav's losing the other.
Edit - Oh, that's right, Cas count as half - that makes it tougher.
If the Pirates deal out that many Cas, not sure the Scav's will have much of a team left to field for the playoffs! |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Winni
Joined: Jan 14, 2006
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Mar 04, 2014 - 05:03 |
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Wow the Icedragons went from rank 1 to 7 with only 2 losses. Celebrated champions yesterday, desperately fighting for survival today... Oh the Norsanity! |
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Spreading the truth about Wood Elves since shortly. |
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Winni
Joined: Jan 14, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 05, 2014 - 14:10 |
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I demand a logo for every team.
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Spreading the truth about Wood Elves since shortly. |
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BlueDevil420
Joined: Dec 19, 2004
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| Posted:
Mar 05, 2014 - 16:25 |
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Make me a decent one then |
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Winni
Joined: Jan 14, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 05, 2014 - 17:14 |
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I´m the worst logo-maker on fumbbl. I´m glad i manage to make my own player pics at least. |
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Spreading the truth about Wood Elves since shortly. |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Mar 06, 2014 - 01:34 |
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I can't upload my dancing rat logo cause of size concerns... sorry 
Btw I just noticed... the Foul Peak Rats have NEVER had a draw. EVER. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 06, 2014 - 10:58 |
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| Nagi21 wrote: | | the Foul Peak Rats have NEVER had a draw. EVER. |
EVER!!! Not in the entire history of any of their... 7 games.
Give it time. (But, admittedly, they are due.) |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Gnomes are trash
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