knightsweats
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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 Posted:
Mar 06, 2014 - 23:33 |
 
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Kislev Conference Round 5
Diseased Wasters at Dark Crag Cripplers
A game the dark elves desperately wanted to lose in order to avoid promotion and inevitable slaughter at the hands of the clawpombers and TV1800s in the big leagues.
The Nurglings either won the toss or at least so befouled the coin that it appeared that they had won the toss, and chose to receive. Their Mighty Blow big man opened with a both-down skull that he rerolled into a dub-skull leaving the ball tantalisingly within reach of the delves.
They marked it up and waited. The very next turn a pestigor temporarily killed himself on a gfi (happy to have regen) and it was a trivial matter for the elves to gather the pigskin and advance it within sight of the goal-line. A last gasp blitz delayed matters for a turn but the point was soon on the board. 1-0 Dark Crag
Five turns before half-time seemed like plenty for an equaliser, but lots of elfy dodginess prevented any obvious holes. Eventually the Nurgles were forced to expose their ball-carrier and he was unceremoniously KO'd and the ball recovered. There was time for a heave upfield for a second elven score but the coach was a numpty.
The delves started the second half in good form, temporarily smashing a warrior's collar bone (happy to have regen) and matriculating the ball well upfield. Another last-gasp two GFI blitz through TZs cas'd the ball-carrier though and there followed a great deal of midfield pushing and shoving. Eventually the same pestigor who came back from death earlier failed a pick-up and spilled the ball into open ground. The elves recovered and after a third two GFI blitz failed they cantered home for the second. 2-0.
The Nurgles scored a consolation goal on the stroke of full-time after a blodging line-elf gave himself a concussion. The coach's noobishness and failure to hire a medic cost him. Looks like they will go into the big leagues despite his best efforts.
https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=3543376 |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Mar 06, 2014 - 23:55 |
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| Smeat wrote: | | Nagi21 wrote: | | the Foul Peak Rats have NEVER had a draw. EVER. |
EVER!!! Not in the entire history of any of their... 7 games.
Give it time. (But, admittedly, they are due.)  |
Lol honestly... when have you ever seen a team go more than 10 games without one... taking all bets  |
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Chainsaw
Joined: Aug 31, 2005
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 01:03 |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 04:51 |
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Grab a cup of your favorite (adult?) beverage - with 2 of the 4 (over-)boldly predicted games down, let's see how I did...
| Smeat wrote: | o Nidhoggstad Icedragons vs. Gaen Vale Starlights)
...it will be AV 7 Ag 4 elf-ball vs. Norse bash... Ag 4 can do anything, and if these teams get on a roll they will be hard to stop, but otoh they themselves have little Block skill, and so are at a disadvantage in any mix-up. And if the Norse get on any sort of a bash streak there will be fewer and fewer elfs to stay on that streak, and to stop the norse onslaught on both Offense and Defense.
The team that stays most disciplined and best controls the position game should win, and from past showings that should be the 'Dragons, but Nuffle may well have a hand in the final outcome even more than most games.
Prediction: 2:1 Icedragons, but not without (or in spite of?) some heart-stopping comeback efforts by the elfs. |
Actual Final Score: 1:0 'Dragons.
The final score was less than predicted, but very close to being accurate as both sides threatened again, and I'll blow my own horn and say that the rest was spot on.
The Norse received and caged, and the elves tried some multi-dodge blitzes to no great effect and fell back with fewer and fewer players standing between their opponent and the score. Meanwhile the 'Dragons took their time moving the ball downfield, bashing as they went, with the luxury to pick their next battles (and fouls).
The early elf-blitzes had left players scattered across the field, and, isolated, they found themselves mostly individuals against a disciplined drive, and Turn 5 the remaining 6 elves (not including one Stunned) fell back to one side and conceded the score, but still lost more players before Turn 8.
2nd half, 8 Elfs faced off to try for the tie - notably missing their Thrower, among lesser losses. Risky initial play Turn 1, even after using the RR, failed a second time and left the unmoved and unprotected ballcarrier within range of a Turn 1 Blitz, and the ball was popped deep in the Elf backfield, at the extreme range of any response. The predictable Elf response of a pass attempt failed, and the ball was triple-marked midfield by the Norse.
But, again as predicted, the Elfs pulled heart-stopping elf-magic out of their hats, with one player making a 5+ pickup, a GFI dodge, and then a 5+ pass to the 2 yard line. The Elfs could not hold on to the ball but then recovered Turn 4, but chose to stall with heavy pressure nearby - and did not survive that. The Elf-magic could only stop the 2nd 'Dragons score, not recover the one they themselves declined - if not without a couple more heart-stopping Ag 4 "almosts".
| Smeat wrote: | o #4 Frostheim United vs. #7 Dark Lands Predators
2 Chaos Dwarf teams face off... The Predators 6 core dwarfs have more MB and their Bulls are more developed, while Frostheim's dwarfs have more Guard with better developed Hobgoblins.
... this commentator will put his money on the position of Frostheim U (with the shoving power of their St 5+Horns Mino) over the simple bash of the Predators.Prediction: 2:1 Frostheim United, despite a valiant effort at the tie by the Predators, but they may pay a price if the Predators' bash kicks in. |
Actual Final Score: 1-0 Frostheim United.
I was half-wrong and that made me even more right - the bash was found with Frostheim, right out of the gate and only then, as, Turn 1, against the odds they BH'd 2 of the Predators' 4 Guards, if one with a foul by one of their aforementioned hobgoblins (a DP). The Preds did get 2 1D blitzes on the ballcarrier late in the half, and once (briefly) popped it free, but with typically half their players on the ground, the Predators' position game was largely a struggle and any bash was at a disadvantage all that first half, even more than predicted.
2nd half, with no reserves (and no additional losses since Turn 1), only 9 Predators lined up to receive 2nd half. Out-manned, out-Guarded 5:2, out-muscled by the Mino, and generally out-positioned and overwhelmed, they soon lost the ball and only stopped the quick 2nd score when a Frostheim hobgoblin with the ball failed a 3+ dodge (despite RR). The Predators' Bull's Break Tackle proved its worth for the Preds, as a 4+ Bull pickup threatened the tie, but a 1d Frostheim blitz stopped that Turn 14 and even recovered with the same Bull, now once again threatening their 2nd score. But the 1d Bull blitzes were hot, and the Predators answered to stop that too. Turn 15 Frostheim had one last shot, but out of RR had to settle for the 1-0 win.
So, where does that leave these teams?...
Frostheim, currently sitting in 2nd (for the moment), wants the Scavengers to win to keep the Pirates out of the picture entirely, but a tie will keep them in 2nd - then they (almost certainly) make the post-season regardless of the outcome of the Shark-Toad game. But if the Pirates beat the Scavengers, they move to 2nd and Frostheim gets bumped to the 3rd place bubble, and then needs both the Shark-Toads to lose and the Goldlords to lose the tiebreaker (a good bet, as it currently stands at an 8-point differential).
And altho' the Icedragons won their last game and currently sit in 3rd, too many nearby teams have yet to play. They had needed Frostheim to lose - now someone will bump them down, no way to avoid it mathematically. A good run, but 2 losses were 1 too many in the short season. We will see them again, no doubt! |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 11:35 |
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The Green Beards appear to have left town, so their game has been forfeited, bringing us into the final round in the Albion Conference. Here's the deal:
Albion Conference
The Nilfheim Lumberjacks, Black Chasm Rush and Pillars of Nagash are all fighting for the top spot. The Rush and the Lumberjacks are facing each other in a crucial game - both teams need to win to face a decent shot at the Conference title. A loss, or even a draw, could see them drop out of the playoff spots - but the Rush are more at risk in the case of a draw, due to their inferior tie-breaker points. The Pillars of Nagash are in a similar situation: they need to win to have a decent shot at the title. For all three, winning means the Cup, but the top spot could come down to a tie-breaker.
The New Bretonnia Expatriates are playing the Pillars of Nagash (and are potentially giving up 500k of inducements!). If the Rush and Lumberjacks draw their game, a win against the Pillars would give them a shot at the Albion Conference title again. However, the irony is that the same draw that gives them a chance at the top spot also means a win wouldn't guarantee them a place in the Cup if the Vagabonds win (four teams on 7 points). If the Rush-Lumberjacks ends in a win for either team, a win for the Expats would be enough to enter the Cup. In this situation, a draw could also be enough, as long as they improve their tie-breaker through casualties and the Vagabonds don't win.
The Wasteland Vagabonds are in a similar situation to the Expats. They need to win to have a shot at getting into the Cup, but they also need the Rush/Lumberjacks to not end in a draw. A draw could potentially get them in, but they'd need an unlikely combination of tiebreaker changes to be in with a chance.
The Foul Peak Lowdown Rats have a very slim chance of sneaking into the Cup. They need to win big, hope the Pillars win their game, and that the Rush/Lumberjacks game doesn't end in a draw - and that the losing team loses a lot of tiebreaker points. They have an 8.5 point deficit to make up, so it is unlikely - but with two rat teams involved, you never know.
Lahmia Undead United and the Massif Orcal Mo'rodaz are the two teams in the table that have to look downwards, not upwards. The automatic relegation spot looks locked in, but the loser of this game will likely be going to the playoffs, as the Turov Torpedos will get another forfeit win (moving them into safety) if the Green Beards of Irana don't return to Albion to fulfil their final fixture. LUU have the advantage, as a draw is enough for them to stay out of the mix, and would send the Mo'rodaz to the playoffs. |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 11:48 |
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As all three Conferences are now into the final round, we can take a look at what the odds are for each team fighting for the:
Giant-Killer Award
As last season, there are three teams involved.
The new Diseased Wasters are in pole position. If the other two results go their way, they'll take the Award, despite losing their final game.
The Pillars of Nagash have the ultimate chance to grab the Award. Although exact teams haven't been finalised, a win or draw against the Expats would be enough to guarantee it for them (assuming no radical TV changes).
Season III GKA winners, the Serpents Coast Scavengers, are the final team with a shot, but they have to win their game and hope the Pillars lose theirs.
Whoever wins, it is now impossible for them to beat the record set by the Nilfheim Lumberjacks last season, and it looks unlikely they'll beat the points total scored by the Scavengers in Season III either.
Good luck killing those giants! |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 11:54 |
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| knightsweats wrote: | | A game the dark elves desperately wanted to lose in order to avoid promotion and inevitable slaughter at the hands of the clawpombers and TV1800s in the big leagues. |
Grats on the win, and promotion! Don't worry, we only have one clawpomber, and one TV1800 team. If you win the Conference, you might be able to avoid both of them next season anyway! |
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FRSHMN
Joined: Feb 25, 2013
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 12:52 |
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| gjopie wrote: |
Albion Conference
Lahmia Undead United and the Massif Orcal Mo'rodaz are the two teams in the table that have to look downwards, not upwards. The automatic relegation spot looks locked in, but the loser of this game will likely be going to the playoffs, as the Turov Torpedos will get another forfeit win (moving them into safety) if the Green Beards of Irana don't return to Albion to fulfil their final fixture. LUU have the advantage, as a draw is enough for them to stay out of the mix, and would send the Mo'rodaz to the playoffs. |
And the Greenskins thirst for satisfaction on that round 3 loss! We are stronger than ever, we have become not only greener but meaner, and WE WANT OUR REVENGE!!!
Hell yeah, let's break some bones... |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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| Posted:
Mar 07, 2014 - 23:54 |
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And so the Bretonnia conference becomes a lot clearer after the Goldlords get past the Shark Toads - but with only enough tiebreaker points to hold a provisional third place. This confirms the Scavengers as conference winners and Frostheim as qualifiers to the cup.
The Pirates can get in on the act and spoil the Goldlords party by winning their own final game and leapfrogging the Goldlords (and likely Frostheim as well) into second place, but no other result will be good enough for them. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2014 - 03:40 |
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| uzkulak wrote: | | And so the Bretonnia conference becomes a lot clearer after the Goldlords get past the Shark Toads |
| Smeat wrote: | o #2 Chupayotl Shark-Toads vs. #5 Barak Varr Goldlords
Here's a true wildcard to predict - the slow grinders vs. the unpredictable leapers.
I could list the pros/cons... but I think it will come down to three factors that each weigh against the 'Toads...
Prediction: 2:1 Barak Varr Goldlords, but only because the Shark-Toads run out of RR (and/or players) for the tie. |
Actual Final Score: 3:0 Goldlords
I should have listened to my own reasoning more!
Those 3 factors conspired against the 'Toads - inferior Block and Guard gave away the position, and they had no defensive answer to stop the Goldlords. The 'Toads only ran out of RR in the 2nd half (Turn 4!), but together these combined to overwhelm them on both sides of the ball, and let the 'Lords run up the score - and understandably so.
| Quote: | | ... but with only enough tiebreaker points to hold a provisional third place. This confirms the Scavengers as conference winners and Frostheim as qualifiers to the cup... |
Yep - grats to those two!
Now it's up to the Pirates and the Scavs - for the Pirates, it's "win and in". (Edit - a "tie" will not get them in.)
Will the Scavs have to face the Pirates twice (and if so, then back to back!), or will they slam that door shut and wait to see what survives the dwarfs and their chaos cousins? |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...)
Last edited by Smeat on %b %08, %2014 - %11:%Mar; edited 1 time in total |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2014 - 11:13 |
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Well done to the two teams who have made it into the Cup!
| Smeat wrote: | | Now it's up to the Pirates and the Scavs - for the Pirates, it's "win and in" - and even a tie should almost certainly be good enough. |
A tie wouldn't be good enough - they need to get to 7 points to replace the Goldlords.
And in fact, if they do win, they are going to finish 2nd, which means the Scavs won't potentially have to face them again until the cup final. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2014 - 11:50 |
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| gjopie wrote: | | A tie wouldn't be good enough - they need to get to 7 points to replace the Goldlords. |
D'oh! You're right - somehow I counted them from 6, not from 5.
| Quote: | | And in fact, if they do win, they are going to finish 2nd, which means the Scavs won't potentially have to face them again until the cup final. |
But as far as the Scavs are concerned, that will be "back to back", if the Pirates win their next 2. |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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BlueDevil420
Joined: Dec 19, 2004
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Mar 09, 2014 - 21:41 |
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Lumberjacks vs the Rush Monday 18.30bbtime! |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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| Posted:
Mar 10, 2014 - 03:45 |
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Gratz to the Pirates for making it into the cup. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 10, 2014 - 06:50 |
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2 Sauri out Turn 1, and then bad luck with the 'Saw. Chalk up one more win for Clawpomb in CRP. |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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