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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 20:05 Reply with quote Back to top

Arktoris wrote:
koadah wrote:
Arktoris wrote:

If scoring more TDs displays less skill...why is TD differential a factor in determining playoff rank?


Because someone has to win. If that is equal they'll probably toss a coin. That doesn't imply more skill either.


by that rationale, 50% of all leagues would just as easily take the team with the lower TD differential to be seated higher.

how many leagues do you know (Bloodbowl or any sport) do this?

If the answer is none, then this is checkmate. Debate over.


I didn't realise that the NFL counted TDs at all. Do they?

Running up the score against weak teams isn't necessarily the sign of a great team.

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 20:24 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
Running up the score against weak teams isn't necessarily the sign of a great team.


and I think that's the reason why we're seeing so many CR recalculations. Christer is probably looking for the best balance between all the parameters.

CR of opponent, team race head-to-head advantage, and score differential...how much does each reflect your abilities?

Over time you have to determine based on your skill if you want a positive win ratio, how often you need to cherrypick weak coaches, how often you need to use tier 1 teams against tier 2, and how often you need to settle for barely winning in order to preserve that 51+ ratio?

The higher your skill, the more you can afford to play tougher coaches, the more you can afford to play with tier 2/3 teams, and the more you can afford to pursue and pull off a decisive win.

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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 20:32 Reply with quote Back to top

3 or 4 - 0 against experienced coaches is likely to be largely down to luck IMO. so we're really talking about how hard can you screw over the rookies & weak coaches.

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 20:42 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
3 or 4 - 0 against experienced coaches is likely to be largely down to luck IMO. so we're really talking about how hard can you screw over the rookies & weak coaches.


when it's luck it all cancels out over time (the # of games when you can run up the score vs the # of games it's done to you).

When it can happen more often in your favor than not...that's not luck. That's skill.

Also keep in mind words like "rookie" and "weak" are relative terms.

There are many coaches on fumbbl who consider me a strong coach...and I'm sure there are some who think I'm weak.

Whether I'm strong or weak is a reflection of your skill and not just mine.

Coaches that routinely best me I bow to...coaches that best me routinely more than 1 TD....I bow to even lower.

So, at what CR can you play against before running up the score isn't risky? That's determined by your skill level.

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 21:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Tripleskull wrote:
Arktoris wrote:
koadah wrote:
Arktoris wrote:

If scoring more TDs displays less skill...why is TD differential a factor in determining playoff rank?


Because someone has to win. If that is equal they'll probably toss a coin. That doesn't imply more skill either.


by that rationale, 50% of all leagues would just as easily take the team with the lower TD differential to be seated higher.

how many leagues do you know (Bloodbowl or any sport) do this?

If the answer is none, then this is checkmate. Debate over.


You are surely an epic display of arrogance, ignorance and delusion. I will not persist in trying to convince you of what is obvious to anyone who understands what is going on at the top tables.


checkmate.

I win.

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Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 21:29 Reply with quote Back to top

So you were just trolling?
Sad
thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 22:37 Reply with quote Back to top

Arktoris wrote:
totally


Missed your quote.

Arktoris wrote:
When it can happen more often in your favor than not...that's not luck. That's skill.


So you're saying that rolling a 7 on 2 D6 is skill?

Fascinating.

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2017 - 22:57 Reply with quote Back to top

thoralf wrote:
Arktoris wrote:
totally


Missed your quote.

Arktoris wrote:
When it can happen more often in your favor than not...that's not luck. That's skill.


So you're saying that rolling a 7 on 2 D6 is skill?

Fascinating.


Knowing how to be at the right place and time for that 7 and formulate a plan that uses it better than your opponent...yes.

again, the luck cancels out over time. It's the noise to the signal. When it works more in your favor than against...that's not luck.

sort of like Poker. It's not the hand you're dealt that matters...it's how you play it.

"know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away...know when to run."

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The_Murker



Joined: Jan 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 00:18 Reply with quote Back to top

OK.. in the world of poker, you would be the guy who goes for the inside straight. Every time. $5 in the pot, or $5000 in the pot, you're going to go for it.

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thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 00:23 Reply with quote Back to top

Arktoris wrote:
sort of like Poker. It's not the hand you're dealt that matters...it's how you play it.


Poker professionals are being dealt more Poker hands in two weeks than Bill ever played games on this site, A. Also, Poker is a betting game, which BB ain't. The "sort of" may not be good enough here. I don't think anybody's disputing that BB's a game of skill anyway.

What is under dispute is the idea that scoring more TDs requires more skill. You said that it was the case, without never really saying why except by mansplaining what skill was. A simple way out of this knot is to observe that CR represents a player's performance. That performance can be interpreted, when repeated often enough, as skill.

I hope nobody will dispute that winning 2-0 is a better performance (ceteris paribus) than winning 1-0.

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Wreckage



Joined: Aug 15, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 00:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Stalling perfectly and scoring many more TDs than the opponent both requires more skill than to fumble the way to the win.
However, neither is the objective of the game. The objective is simply to win the game. Thus the skill shown by scoring more TDs does not reflect on skill relating to the game.
thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 00:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Wreckage wrote:
Stalling perfectly and scoring many more TDs than the opponent both requires more skill than to fumble the way to the win.


If that's the case, then stalling will increase the number of wins, thus the CR of the staller compared to the fan of the Han Solo School of BB, assuming winning is a bigger factor than winning big.

So what's the fuss again?

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 01:26 Reply with quote Back to top

thoralf wrote:
Poker is a betting game, which BB ain't.

What is under dispute is the idea that scoring more TDs requires more skill.

A simple way out of this knot is to observe that CR represents a player's performance. That performance can be interpreted, when repeated often enough, as skill.

I hope nobody will dispute that winning 2-0 is a better performance (ceteris paribus) than winning 1-0.


sounds like we're arriving to the same destination but taking two different routes.


"That performance can be interpreted, when repeated often enough, as skill."

Yes, perfectly said.

As for poker, the point is the game goes beyond statistics and probabilities.

Bloodbowl and Poker are like complex numbers, they have a rational component (a component that you can tangibly grasp) and an irrational component (imaginary numbers...they exist, but you can't grasp them).

The rational component is counting cards, knowing the probabilities of what cards may come up, the probabilities of getting the straight vs 2 pair and which cards to discard to get the best hand.

but there's a large intangible component with respect to making your opponent sweat, psyching him out, bluffing, money management, etc. You can't assign an equation to these things but they are very real.

same with Bloodbowl. It has a statistics component like how often can you break AV9 vs AV8, what are the chances of a rock hitting my cagebreaker and KO-ing him, should I 1 die block or just dodge away, etc etc.

but there's also the irrational component to the equation:

What advantage does taking +MV over +AV?

Can I goad my opponent into a foul war which leaves his ball carrier unguarded?

Can I goad him into attacking my claw player instead of defending against the TD?

If he's playing textbook grind 2-1, then his moves are predictable...can I use that predictability to my advantage?

Can I fool him into thinking a stall is safe...only to pop it loose last second and toss it downfield...and oh look! Got a lineman right there to race it in...oh wasn't that "lucky" Wink

Are my players well painted? Good backstory? Good game reports? Sometimes these intangibles can actually grant you more peer recognition or peer intimidation than winning a tournament.

list goes on and on. The tangible statistics and probabilities portion of Bloodbowl is only 50% of the game.

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thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 02:31 Reply with quote Back to top

Arktoris wrote:
sounds like we're arriving to the same destination but taking two different routes.


If all you claim is that winning bigly shows greated skill overall than grinding wins, then yes. We agree insofar as we're considering cases where the number of wins is the same. But as many people argued, you need to accept that there's a trade-off between winning consistently and winning big.

Pushing for big wins all the time as the most rewarding strategy does not seem to reflect what the top coaches do.

You can argue for any intangible you want, what CR can't capture is beyond the topic of this thread.

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thoralf



Joined: Mar 06, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 20, 2017 - 02:39 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
I didn't realise that the NFL counted TDs at all.


Nor did I realise that the NFL had ELO-like coach or team ratings.

A win is a win is a win, both in the NFL and in C's CR.

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