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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 02:13 Reply with quote Back to top

pizzamogul wrote:
Hmmm. Looking at that one play outside the larger context of the game skews the analogy.

It was 2nd down with 26 seconds to go and 1 timeout left after a run on first down ate up a huge chunk of the clock to not leave Tom Brady any time for a miracle after Seattle scored.

If Seattle runs and doesn't score, they must use their final timeout to stop the clock and set up their 3rd down play. in that situation they would be forced to throw on 3rd down into a prepared defense, hoping to leave enough time on an incompletion for a 4th down try.

If Seattle passes (running a slant route) the likely outcomes are a touchdown or an incompletion. If incomplete, they can now run on 3rd down and if that fails, call timeout to set up their best 4th down play.

And gaining one yard was no guarantee. The Patriots twice earlier in the game forced punts on 3rd-and-1 when Lynch failed to pick up the 1st down.

My analogy would be a situation where the opponent has a one-turn scorer and you have 3 turns to stall out before scoring to win/end the match. A defender makes a 6+ dodge into your cage/screen, pops the ball loose and it bounces all they way across several players into a defender's hands.


Love it!
charlie1331



Joined: Sep 16, 2012

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 18:50 Reply with quote Back to top

In a building game click through, Hunter Henry hit by rock, armor break, cas, -MA, apoth fail

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bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 19:14 Reply with quote Back to top

garyt1 wrote:
I think that offensive play fail would be most analagous to a coach fail in BB, rather than amazing defence or luck. Coach chose an option for a pass rather than something like a 2db and a gfi.
Or chose Pro instead of Dodge and wanted to dodge. Very Happy

I dont think the playcall was bad. I know that the public perception is that Lynch would pound it in, but some NFL coaches think otherwise, and there is statistics to support that claim:
- Lynch was stopped fairly ofter at or beyond the 2 yard line in that season
- NE Pats goal line defense was extremely good against the run that season

I saw a statistical analysis with formal NFL coach involved that compared the expected success rate of that given pass, and that given run. The conclusion was that the playcall was smart, but the QB should not have thrown the ball when he saw the successful jamming by Browner, and fast approaching Butler. And even if he pulled the trigger, he should have thrown the ball to the other shoulder of the receiver.
That coach said over 100 such pass trials were in the NFL in that season, and none result at interception in that season before that play.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 21:18 Reply with quote Back to top

bghandras wrote:
garyt1 wrote:
I think that offensive play fail would be most analagous to a coach fail in BB, rather than amazing defence or luck. Coach chose an option for a pass rather than something like a 2db and a gfi.
Or chose Pro instead of Dodge and wanted to dodge. Very Happy

I dont think the playcall was bad. I know that the public perception is that Lynch would pound it in, but some NFL coaches think otherwise, and there is statistics to support that claim:
- Lynch was stopped fairly ofter at or beyond the 2 yard line in that season
- NE Pats goal line defense was extremely good against the run that season

I saw a statistical analysis with formal NFL coach involved that compared the expected success rate of that given pass, and that given run. The conclusion was that the playcall was smart, but the QB should not have thrown the ball when he saw the successful jamming by Browner, and fast approaching Butler. And even if he pulled the trigger, he should have thrown the ball to the other shoulder of the receiver.
That coach said over 100 such pass trials were in the NFL in that season, and none result at interception in that season before that play.


There are a few additional pieces of information though that I think diminish the smartness of the playcall, regardless of what alternatives were available. To me there are two questions - what went wrong and why - and then alternative plays.

1. BB and team saw that this formation in that circumstance was likely the slant route because the Seahawks had run it before just like that. They've talked about this specifically and while the Seahawks couldn't know that there was this hunch by the Pats, the Pats had it. Factor in Browner being a former Hawk and having intimate knowledge of not only what the Hawks do schematically but how to bust up on his former teammates. He was one of the if not most physical CBs in a long spell in the NFL.

2. It's a 0 read bang bang play. There is no alternative read to make and for Russell Wilson to not throw the ball at all especially in that situation (running clock) because of the defensive coverage is a tenuous option at best. The throw could have been better but...

3. Ricardo Lockette was the #5 receiver in the depth chart and a special teams player the majority of the time. His skill set should preclude him from being the point man on the play. Now there is an argument to be made that using him as the point man might be unexpected and an edge for the Hawks to exploit but...

refering back to point 1. The Pat's coverage of this play is dictated by the information from tape where the Hawk's personnel itself is immaterial to the coverage of the play. The play worked on the inside WR getting a pick and the outside catching the ball and the Pats knew that and prepared for that.

The Hawks blithely went headlong into a woodchipper with personnel that didn't maximize the chances of making it through the woodchipper. It's part of why I think more credit should be given to BB and the team for that play than blame given to the Hawks for screwing the pooch.

On the other hand, Bevell, the OC for the Hawks routinely did stuff like this (not maximizing his player's talents and opportunities for success) and was seemingly unaware of his patterns and tells and that the Pats had the book on this play in this situation is just another brick in his mediocre wall of shame.
bghandras



Joined: Feb 06, 2011

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 21:35 Reply with quote Back to top

1. The (good) NFL teams, including the Seahawks know the bread and butter plays of the other teams, and the likely countermeasures to their own bread and butter play. This slant was a very typical play call for the Hawks, and every team knew about it, and the Hawks knew about it the Pats knew about it.

2. The alternatives were
- Throwing away
- Throwing to the other shoulder
Both stop the clock.

3. Agreed.

Give credit to BB: I would partially agree. Originally Browner was not at that position. If i remember correctly, Browner and Butler changes position at the last seconds. So very likely after the radio connection between QB and OC is terminated, hence the coach could not change the playcall without calling a timeout. Only Russel Wilson could have changed the playcall. So there was no indication that Browner would be the one who pushes back in a handfight. (What i think Wilson could have done, is telling the receivers to change up the roles, so Butler jams and Browner needs to make the INT, a mismatch in my view. But Wilson did not change the direction of the play.)

Extra point: The Pats defensive setup was not Nickel, it was heavy goal line. It means that they were a little bit soft on defensive back (so every receiver was 1 on 1), but there was extra man in the box (on top of the heavy lineman package) to stop the run.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: May 25, 2018 - 22:11 Reply with quote Back to top

Given the circumstances of the game state and the Pats not calling a timeout the ability to audible would be a stretch.

Not only that but RW himself was in his 3rd season, likely wasnt going to 'cowboy' an audible and thus had to have the green light to do so and then have the rest of them on the same page.

I see the potential there, for sure, and at this point in RWs career he should have the liberty and framework to audible in a situation like that.

But I will posit that given the culmination of adrenaline, time draining, and being in the most high leverage situation possible, little things were bound to get missed and the execution itself might be under duress. But thats not saying much in specific as those are common things many times over in the NFL.
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