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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Jun 15, 2019 - 20:12 Reply with quote Back to top

mrt1212 wrote:
Arktoris wrote:
mrt1212 wrote:
Tiers are folly. They don't actually inform anyone on HOW to make them sing.


How did you come to that conclusion per say?


https://www.fieldgulls.com/2017/8/31/16238142/tiers-are-a-cheap-trick-to-spur-conversation?_ga=2.93804317.1218622408.1555001670-180784814.1545179137

First, I wrote that a long time ago. It gets into why I don't like tiers as a conversation piece. It feels cheap and facile.

Second, how are we approaching coaching integration into tiers of races. Are we assuming a bog standard coach can waltz in and push a 55% winrate with tier 1 races? Or 67%? Or what? What is the baseline here?

Third, tiers themselves don't speak to more successful builds of the team. For example I have a Box Orc team that is perilously low on guard and very flush with DT and +ST. It's not that great. But aha, Orcs are a Tier 1 team? Sure, only if you are actually building a team to their strengths and abilities. If you don't are they a Tier 1 team? It's like saying you have a bonafide awesome recipe for a beef stew and yet you don't use half the ingredients listed in the recipe and make substitutions for the other half. You can't control for coaches making alternative decisions that may work but are far from ideal. Same for Chaos. There is a schema of build that most people follow - is it the best build? Who knows - but what if there were alternative approaches to Chaos that are much better than simply trying to usher the opponent off of the pitch?

Fourth, tiers set up a self reinforcing self selection of teams for coaches. I have banged the drum that High Elves are actually really good at high TV because to actually get a team up to 2300+ you are going to have freaks and sneaks that buoy that TV. You will have a set of tools, some base survivability ahead of elven brothers and some flexibility to get wild even if it winds up a dead end. I play them like a Tier 1 team because I see nothing but opportunities to win during 80% of the game. But alas, if most people see Wood Elves as tier 1 and High Elves as tier 2, they will not even attempt to make High Elves sing like I've tried to.

Fifth, at the end of the day, tiers might get you into a team but they won't inform you about yourself and your strengths and weaknesses as a coach. I have been way more successful with Chaos Dwarves than most any other team in open play. They're boring to me though. It's a very 'paint by numbers' experience. I would rather have some risk of losing and get a real mental workout than do the safe and self indulgent thing of validating myself as a coach. If you only play tier 1 races, build super conventionally, and are happy to just work the racket, what are you doing here long term? I know not everyone is as gung ho about using a game to learn about life but the notion is ripe for the picking.


wow...that's a lot of per saying.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jun 15, 2019 - 20:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Arktoris wrote:
mrt1212 wrote:
Arktoris wrote:
mrt1212 wrote:
Tiers are folly. They don't actually inform anyone on HOW to make them sing.


How did you come to that conclusion per say?


https://www.fieldgulls.com/2017/8/31/16238142/tiers-are-a-cheap-trick-to-spur-conversation?_ga=2.93804317.1218622408.1555001670-180784814.1545179137

First, I wrote that a long time ago. It gets into why I don't like tiers as a conversation piece. It feels cheap and facile.

Second, how are we approaching coaching integration into tiers of races. Are we assuming a bog standard coach can waltz in and push a 55% winrate with tier 1 races? Or 67%? Or what? What is the baseline here?

Third, tiers themselves don't speak to more successful builds of the team. For example I have a Box Orc team that is perilously low on guard and very flush with DT and +ST. It's not that great. But aha, Orcs are a Tier 1 team? Sure, only if you are actually building a team to their strengths and abilities. If you don't are they a Tier 1 team? It's like saying you have a bonafide awesome recipe for a beef stew and yet you don't use half the ingredients listed in the recipe and make substitutions for the other half. You can't control for coaches making alternative decisions that may work but are far from ideal. Same for Chaos. There is a schema of build that most people follow - is it the best build? Who knows - but what if there were alternative approaches to Chaos that are much better than simply trying to usher the opponent off of the pitch?

Fourth, tiers set up a self reinforcing self selection of teams for coaches. I have banged the drum that High Elves are actually really good at high TV because to actually get a team up to 2300+ you are going to have freaks and sneaks that buoy that TV. You will have a set of tools, some base survivability ahead of elven brothers and some flexibility to get wild even if it winds up a dead end. I play them like a Tier 1 team because I see nothing but opportunities to win during 80% of the game. But alas, if most people see Wood Elves as tier 1 and High Elves as tier 2, they will not even attempt to make High Elves sing like I've tried to.

Fifth, at the end of the day, tiers might get you into a team but they won't inform you about yourself and your strengths and weaknesses as a coach. I have been way more successful with Chaos Dwarves than most any other team in open play. They're boring to me though. It's a very 'paint by numbers' experience. I would rather have some risk of losing and get a real mental workout than do the safe and self indulgent thing of validating myself as a coach. If you only play tier 1 races, build super conventionally, and are happy to just work the racket, what are you doing here long term? I know not everyone is as gung ho about using a game to learn about life but the notion is ripe for the picking.


wow...that's a lot of per saying.


I have thought about it some. Wink
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Jun 15, 2019 - 20:40 Reply with quote Back to top

I have an excellent record vs Wood Elves with my main High Elf team. When those dancers try to leap into my cage, I almost expect to hear the bones break ... Wink

Especially when they're using a tree, they might as well be down 200TV.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Jun 16, 2019 - 02:47 Reply with quote Back to top

JellyBelly wrote:
I have an excellent record vs Wood Elves with my main High Elf team. When those dancers try to leap into my cage, I almost expect to hear the bones break ... Wink

Especially when they're using a tree, they might as well be down 200TV.


Yeah, like in helf vs. welf or eulf matches, I feel utterly confident based on the team build and coaching chops. Gimme those games all day long, Bowl Bot.
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Jun 16, 2019 - 03:03 Reply with quote Back to top

mrt1212 wrote:
JellyBelly wrote:
I have an excellent record vs Wood Elves with my main High Elf team. When those dancers try to leap into my cage, I almost expect to hear the bones break ... Wink

Especially when they're using a tree, they might as well be down 200TV.


Yeah, like in helf vs. welf or eulf matches, I feel utterly confident based on the team build and coaching chops. Gimme those games all day long, Bowl Bot.


I usually find welf easier, because they often have a wasted tree, and I find pelf are more likely to have better defenders, since the Blitzers only need 2 skills for blodge/SS/DT. Plus, they're AV8, so a bit less easy to knock off the pitch than Wardancers.

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Soulmask



Joined: May 11, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 22, 2019 - 23:28 Reply with quote Back to top

About this whole "tiers are bs" or "this threads tiers are bs" posters... Here's what I got to say about that. (per say):

Everything related to success in human existence follows a Pareto distribution. The amount of money people have is the biggest one, and Pareto distributions are closely related to the 80-20 rule, its just more complete, less layman or pedantic. But also, it represents the number of paintings a successful painter sells. Population amount of countries, or cities worldwide. The amounts of goals in a sport by athlete. And of course, the wins of different classes/races/characters in competitive video games or tabletop games.

Pareto distributions basically represent the whole 1% revolutionary meme, the top contenders of any contest end up with the most wins, often by far, including the amount of money people make. I saw that the amount of Major Fumbbl wins per race followed a Pareto distribution, and making a tier list from that was thus trivial and would accurately represent at least the Fumbbl metagame, and probably the actual tournament competitiveness of races.

Now we have to take into account that the statistics are all about tournament play, and I must admit not the most recent ones. However, from lrb4 races havent changed THAT much. The average CR of coaches playing in Major tournaments is probably around 160, and the CR of tournament winners usually reach 180 or at least 170. I also think that the CR formula puts more weight on tournament wins. So the real CR of tournament winners arent as high as right after their major win, but I must point out that it often doesnt drop that much afterwards too... All that indicates that the players playing and winning in Major tournaments are often the best ones.

So in the end because of all ive written above I do believe that the tier list is at least somewhat accurate at predicting the races of future winners of current major tournaments. It probably also has a metagame bias, as all other competitive arenas have.

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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Jul 22, 2019 - 23:49 Reply with quote Back to top

You have orcs as the top team?

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Soulmask



Joined: May 11, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 00:17 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
You have orcs as the top team?


Yes because the best coaches consistently win with them.
Orcs are anti-bashers because they overpower other bashy teams with their 4 bobs and 4 blitzers + troll line which is not easily counterable by any other race. They also have access to the best stars in ghoulchewer and morg and thorg. They thus have the best bashy profile, and they are relatively fast, with access to sure hands ag3 and possible 1turn tds with goblin and sometimes ag 4 goblins.

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Soulmask



Joined: May 11, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 00:43 Reply with quote Back to top

You know, I never ever said that bad coaches can easily win with orcs.

They aren't the best with 0 games because of lack of guard and block on bobs. but with 6+ guard and block bobs and 4+mb and av9 all around they easily become a powerhouse...

Frankly I'm actually surprised at how many people disagree with top tier orcs because I thought it was a given among high CR coaches.

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Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 00:48 Reply with quote Back to top

All orcs must die!
Soulmask



Joined: May 11, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 00:56 Reply with quote Back to top

The data is old too and I never said otherwise... in recent years there seems to be only 1 orc winner but i havent look at finalists and semi-finalists. From their 1 win it seems they still arent that bad, would that mean that after updating data, orcs wouldnt be first overall anymore? Maybe, but I'm too lazy to make a new list with updated data.

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garyt1



Joined: Mar 12, 2011

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 01:09 Reply with quote Back to top

I think since the days of claw you would find Orc's tournament winning success took a real turn for the worse. A good team, but can be found out at higher TVs.
You can call Orcs tier 1, but as long as you are putting several teams as tier 1.
On NAF stats they have quite low win rates on tabletop tournaments. Partly because new players tend to use them, as with humans.

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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 01:09 Reply with quote Back to top

So, you are using data from multiple rule changes ago to tell us which is the best team now?

And you wonder why people don't believe it?

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Soulmask



Joined: May 11, 2007

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 01:15 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
So, you are using data from multiple rule changes ago to tell us which is the best team now?

And you wonder why people don't believe it?


Half the data is semi-modern(same rules but not recent) and the other half is lrb4.
So yeah feel free to consider orcs as not first team anymore. Still a valid power level list overall. Especially for high tv tournaments. For example dwarfs and chaos have only 1 win in recent years too and i didnt see any chaos dwarves and im sure they aint bad either. A lot more lizzies, but I never denied the power of lizzies.

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garyt1



Joined: Mar 12, 2011

Post   Posted: Jul 23, 2019 - 04:55 Reply with quote Back to top

Purple chest had the main point on the first page. If the list was called something like historical summary of race success at majors, it would be ok. Interesting, but inaccurate for several current teams abilities.

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