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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 14, 2019 - 19:45 Reply with quote Back to top

I want to flesh out 5 scenarios that are game changing on 'My Turn' and 'Opponent Turn'

What is the difference between the two besides the name and when they take place?

'My turn' is the turn in which you can declare a blitz action.
'Opponent turn' is the turn in which your opponent can declare a blitz action.

The difference broken down by skill:

Skills can operate on 'My Turn', 'Opponent Turn' or 'Both'. In some cases, while you CAN use a skill on 'My turn' typically that is not their first use (like Side Step and Stand Firm).

I am not going to take the time to define each skill but I want to put you in that frame of mind for the following:

5 Scenarios on 'My Turn' that are game changing

5 Scenarios on 'Opponent Turn' that are game changing

So far here are 5 'My Turn' Scenarios that Nelphine and I have pondered:

1. Pitch Removal of ST4 AV9 (We think this is a pretty big deal to the game state)

2. Dodge or Leap into 3 TZ cage and block against Ball Carrier to dislodge the ball (Ball pops are important)

3. Max Movement and GFIs to catch a pass or handoff in a TZ to score. Either a 1 TZ dodge or Blitz must be taken to get to endzone after the catch (Scoring a last gasp TD from far range is important)

4. Two players, MA8 SS Blodge Catchers are in scoring range in Snowy Weather. You have only have one player in range who can reach both without GFIs. How do you approach it to minimize their chance of a score (Stopping a breakaway or subverting a catch-22 is important)

5. Ball pickup in 2 Tackle Zones (assume a ball pop put it there). You must pickup and either punt, pass or hand off at least 4 squares away from pickup point (picking up a loose balls and absconding with them is important and there are a few ways to do it. I personally hate getting the pickup but then failing the punt, pass or HO because I find that usually if you knock down an MA6 Ball Carrier they have the range to recover if you don't get 4+ squares away from them with the ball on a fail).

I haven't really done 'opponent turn' scenarios yet but here is where I am going with all of this.

For any given scenario there is a combination of skills and player type that can achieve 'ideal odds' for it. Ideal odds might range from ~1% of success to ~97% of success depending on the scenario factors, player and skill factors but they are the best possible odds in the game for the scenario. (e.g. A player with stunty and AG4 has 'ideal odds' for all dodges bar prehensile tail. Two heads and +AG on a stunty AG4 allows for up to 2 PTs to be ignored)

From the point of identifying 'ideal odds' we can do cross comparisons between player types with equal skills selection (e.g. How does a Gutter Runner with X,Y,Z compare to Wood Elf Catcher with X,Y,Z in these scenarios in terms of 'ideal odds', TV cost, and how unique a player is required for 'ideal odds' in that scenario

(e.g. An AG6 GR with Surehands requires 2x(1/18 ) for 2x AG and 1x(3/4) for Surehands. AG4 GR with Surehands and Big Hand requires 1x(3/4) for Surehands 1x(1/6) for Big Hand.

Cost is 100k for the former and 50k for the latter)

I understand if this doesn't make sense but the point of this analysis is not to come to some objective ranking of player types but to test player types across a few different scenarios to inform coaches on how to build with an eye towards TV cost and coming up with 'make-do' solutions when ideal odds can only be achieved by mostly unique players.

Big picture, Nelphine an I would like to create an illustration of player type value across multiple scenarios and measure how you can build efficiently towards 'ideal odds'. If a player is in the 90th percentile (compared to peer group) across multiple scenarios in achieving 'ideal odds' they might be a game breaking player and one with an eye towards building.


Last edited by mrt1212 on Oct 14, 2019 - 20:13; edited 1 time in total
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 14, 2019 - 20:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Or imagine this another way.

You draw up a play in Samba but define the parameters not the discrete odds. The Nelphine's algorithm spits back a table of player types aptitude for the scenario based on defined skills and the TV cost and skill pick rarity.

We are starting at some more hard defined scenarios to get a sense of how to build the model. We are using the following player types to test.

War Dancer, Gutter Runner, Necro Werewolf, Bull Centaur, Chorf Blocker, Human Lino and Black Orc Boss. The first 5 are to cover a lot of different skills and attributes and skill selection pathways. The last two are baseline comparisons. We mostly agree the human lino is the most average in the game and the Black Orc Boss is the least interesting ST4 player but omnipresent regardless.

The end end goal is to allow you guys to define scenarios and then spit out an all inclusive value table by: Ideal Odds, Player Cost, and Rarity with options to filter by parameter.

E.g. "Show me the best ball sacking player builds but filter out player types where it requires a Stat roll" or "show me the best ball sacking player builds but filter out player types where the cost exceeds 150k in TV"
MrCushtie



Joined: Aug 10, 2018

Post   Posted: Oct 14, 2019 - 21:52 Reply with quote Back to top

For scenario 2, does the carrier have Sure Hands? Or will you actually have multiple versions of that for Sure Hands/Block/Dodge ball carriers?

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 14, 2019 - 22:40 Reply with quote Back to top

MrCushtie wrote:
For scenario 2, does the carrier have Sure Hands? Or will you actually have multiple versions of that for Sure Hands/Block/Dodge ball carriers?


Good Question: To start with, no Sure Hands. But we would like to present a tool to you guys so you could define the scenario to your own delight and run illustrations between a Sure Hands target and No Sure Hands target.

We have gone back and forth on how to construct the scenarios so they aren't completely positional dependent. So instead of conjuring up a scenario where you have to account for guard assists in the scenario on a 3 TZ ball pop, we tried to break it down into a more base scenarios:

In Scenario 2 we decided to make the Ball Carrier ST5 so we don't have to think about the positional portion just the odds portion. This also ties into my hunch that the Bull Centaur, across multiple scenarios, is pretty dang good.
mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 21, 2019 - 19:10 Reply with quote Back to top

So here is a list of things we need:

1. A programmatic method of creating scenarios (like Samba) but with the ability to define the parameters without defining dice odds.

2. A programmatic method of building players to yield best odds for a defined scenario. Could be a DB with all combos (don't like) or it can be a brute force algorithm (also don't like but seems better)

3. A visual means (maybe a table?) of illustrating player's odds in a defined scenario(s) in comparison to other players. Ability to filter and sort this table by TV of player and Uniqueness of player.
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