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mister__joshua



Joined: Jun 20, 2007

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 13:45
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Garion wrote:
@argos_72 can you fix that quote please. I did not say any of that. I'm not sure why my name is there. Thanks.


I’ve fixed it because broken quotes make me twitch.

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Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 13:57 Reply with quote Back to top

mister__joshua wrote:
Garion wrote:
@argos_72 can you fix that quote please. I did not say any of that. I'm not sure why my name is there. Thanks.


I’ve fixed it because broken quotes make me twitch.


Thank you.

Now back to the topic at hand.

Tier 3 teams are meant to be <35%

with this new fouling, coupled with the fact some stunty teams have cheap bribes, and that star players are much cheaper. are stunty teams going to start performing way above their intended tier?

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dabassman



Joined: Feb 17, 2006

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 15:04 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:


Tier 3 teams are meant to be <35%

with this new fouling, coupled with the fact some stunty teams have cheap bribes, and that star players are much cheaper. are stunty teams going to start performing way above their intended tier?


I think tiers are very dependent on a league's TV level.
If we play with a season cap of 135, then I think yes, some teams will perform above their tier level.
IMO Snotlings, for example, are better than Tier 3 at low TV levels. Much better than Goblins, anyway, and even better than some tier 2 Teams, like Nurgle.
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 15:05 Reply with quote Back to top

I hope tier 3 will be better, they deserved a buff.
Doofr



Joined: Nov 04, 2015

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 15:07 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:
mister__joshua wrote:
Garion wrote:
@argos_72 can you fix that quote please. I did not say any of that. I'm not sure why my name is there. Thanks.


I’ve fixed it because broken quotes make me twitch.


Thank you.

Now back to the topic at hand.

Tier 3 teams are meant to be <35%

with this new fouling, coupled with the fact some stunty teams have cheap bribes, and that star players are much cheaper. are stunty teams going to start performing way above their intended tier?



Sure.

For Halfs for instance , you should have pretty easily 2 ma3 block trees +ag4 catcher + 1 dp at least , in the hands of good coach should rise a lot over 35%.

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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 16:11 Reply with quote Back to top

Stunties FTW!

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Muff2n



Joined: May 20, 2017

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 16:23 Reply with quote Back to top

Good point from doofr about the easy access to +MV on trees. What a steal at 20k.

I'm not sure about DP though. Increases the cost of the fouler from 50k to 90k, when I'm perfectly happy to put the boot in without it! Only for a super star player or something would I be regretting no DP I think. Time will tell.
Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 17:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Don't forget goblins start with dp now. And can get sg after 1 skill. For their perfect player. A significant boost to gobos

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WhatBall



Joined: Aug 21, 2008

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 21:42 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:
Don't forget goblins start with dp now. And can get sg after 1 skill. For their perfect player. A significant boost to gobos

Goblins are going to be so much fun!
I am going to make a team that fouls every turn and just tries to kill legennzzz..., er, semi-well-known star players. Laughing

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argos_72



Joined: Mar 02, 2007

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 21:43 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:
@argos_72 can you fix that quote please. I did not say any of that. I'm not sure why my name is there. Thanks.


Hi
I quoted from your post of Nov 17, 2020 - 18:25
My quote was too short... sorry

Garion wrote:
koadah wrote:
I really can't be arsed to look it up. How has it changed.

Can you now get +2DP? Twisted Evil


You get +1 with dp. Sg = 1 in6 chance of sending off (instead of 1 in 3), you can also foul and carry on moving. To keep your dp player safe.

Plus argue the call on top of this.
[....]

Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 22:40 Reply with quote Back to top

Death Rollers great again! om nom nom rostered +2 DP...
argos_72



Joined: Mar 02, 2007

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 22:49 Reply with quote Back to top

Foho wrote:
Probability of getting sent off with 100% armor break foul:
It's 1/6 with sneaky git
It's 1/6 + 5/6*1/6 (11/36).
So slightly under 2/3. By doing 1/6+1/6 you calculate one of the outcome twice (the one where you roll double twice).


You are right... definitively I need to open and refresh my book of statistics. It cannot be 1/6 + 1/6 probability to make a double with 2D6 rolls because in this case if you make 6 rolls with 2D6 the probability will be 1/6+/1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6 = 1 = 100% which of course is totally wrong

So the correct formula to calculate a "double" rolling N times 2D6 is
P(make double with Rolls 1) + (P not making a double with roll 1 and make a doble with roll number 2)
+ P(not making a double with roll 1) P (not making a double with roll2) and (P making a double with roll 3) +
.... + P (not making a double with roll 1) ...P(not making a double with roll (N-1) and P (making double with roll N)

= *1/6 + 5/6*1/6 + 5/6*5/6*1/6 + ..... + [(5/6)EXP(N-1)]*1/6

N=1 ---> P=1/6 =16,6%
N=2 --> P = 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) = 1/6 + 5/36 = 11/36 = 30,5% (so less than 1/3)
N=3 --> P ) 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) + (5/6)*(5/6)*1/6 = 91/216 = 42,13%
etc......
For our discussion only N=2 is the formula we are interested

Foho wrote:

If you had a 1/3 chance to break armor, it would simply be :
with sneaky git: 1/6*1/3
without sneaky git: 1/6+(5/6*1/6*1/3)
Sneaky git give a 5/36 improvement vs sent off AT BEST.

The biggest upside of the new killer combo is that all teams have access to it and it does not benefit from claw, so it's much less unfair and it helps stuntie A LOT.


yes
Lorebass



Joined: Jun 25, 2010

Post   Posted: Dec 04, 2020 - 23:30
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WhatBall wrote:
Garion wrote:
Don't forget goblins start with dp now. And can get sg after 1 skill. For their perfect player. A significant boost to gobos

Goblins are going to be so much fun!
I am going to make a team that fouls every turn and just tries to kill legennzzz..., er, semi-well-known star players. Laughing


"Angry Newscaster's Apprentices?"
"Channel 4oul News"

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Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 08:01 Reply with quote Back to top

argos_72 wrote:
Foho wrote:
Probability of getting sent off with 100% armor break foul:
It's 1/6 with sneaky git
It's 1/6 + 5/6*1/6 (11/36).
So slightly under 2/3. By doing 1/6+1/6 you calculate one of the outcome twice (the one where you roll double twice).


You are right... definitively I need to open and refresh my book of statistics. It cannot be 1/6 + 1/6 probability to make a double with 2D6 rolls because in this case if you make 6 rolls with 2D6 the probability will be 1/6+/1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6 = 1 = 100% which of course is totally wrong

So the correct formula to calculate a "double" rolling N times 2D6 is
P(make double with Rolls 1) + (P not making a double with roll 1 and make a doble with roll number 2)
+ P(not making a double with roll 1) P (not making a double with roll2) and (P making a double with roll 3) +
.... + P (not making a double with roll 1) ...P(not making a double with roll (N-1) and P (making double with roll N)

= *1/6 + 5/6*1/6 + 5/6*5/6*1/6 + ..... + [(5/6)EXP(N-1)]*1/6

N=1 ---> P=1/6 =16,6%
N=2 --> P = 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) = 1/6 + 5/36 = 11/36 = 30,5% (so less than 1/3)


Sorry I'm not with you. Sneaky Git you only get sent off if you roll a double on injury. You do not get sent off if you roll a double on armour.

Odds of rolling a double are 1/6 =16.6'%
After that you need to calculate - argue the call...

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Java



Joined: Jan 27, 2018

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 08:40 Reply with quote Back to top

I've written a little script for sneaky git players that factors in argue the call, bribes, and biased ref, and outputs the number of fouls one can expect to do with impunity

It can be tweaked to include non-SG players

I've not included the bribery and corruption roll, as it's once per game so its impact is very limited

It runs on scilab, no idea on how to make it web accessible rather than emailing it to you
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