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licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 02:54 Reply with quote Back to top

Woodstock wrote:
What you are saying actually proves...... Nothing. Do you have data on what teams were activated during the times those teams got scheduled? How did the other combination of matches score on suitability?
How many teams are actually active in the box? How is that spread over the TV range?... You should stop focusing on what you want to see, and accept that it could actually works with the input that is given.


Well with a large enough sample pool it doesn't really matter who was activated during the draws, unless you are claiming that only one chaos team is ever activated during each draw (within separate TV windows).

I don't know if Murkers claim is accurate or not, but if there is some malus towards mirror matches then his claim is more likely accurate than not. Unless the other factors out weigh it. I don't know, no one actually seems to know, so most of this is pointless at the moment.

However, if Murkers claim is accurate, then the legitimate question is about the rate at which mirrors should be preferred, or not. Seems to me the entire concept of adding in these fudge factors to skew the matchups is arbitrary and against what is meant by 'random matchups' but I'm new, so I'm sure someone will be along to tell me I'm wrong Very Happy
Woodstock



Joined: Dec 11, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:02 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:
Well with a large enough sample pool it doesn't really matter who was activated during the draws, unless you are claiming that only one chaos team is ever activated during each draw (within separate TV windows).


With less then 10 coaches activating for a draw (most of the time only 4-6), I find it very likely that no chaos teams can be matched yes. Or even mirror matches at all.
Gromrilram



Joined: Aug 28, 2006

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:17 Reply with quote Back to top

well murky, i understand you beeing upset, but as a matter of fact, 10 games (as frustrating as it can be) is not enough of a statistic.

and if you look at your overall statistics of opponent in blackbox, yes chaos are still the lead with 8 times, but out of 72 matches thats 1/9, above averagestill, no question, but i hardly doubt you will be able to get a better percentage with however "fixed" scheduler you can think of. (by the way, you also have cd and... woodies... with 7 matches as next highest opponents)

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licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Woodstock wrote:
licker wrote:
Well with a large enough sample pool it doesn't really matter who was activated during the draws, unless you are claiming that only one chaos team is ever activated during each draw (within separate TV windows).


With less then 10 coaches activating for a draw (most of the time only 4-6), I find it very likely that no chaos teams can be matched yes. Or even mirror matches at all.


Which explains why (apparently) other non-chaos teams wind up in mirror matches more frequently? Or are you suggesting that there are simply no mirror matches? Or that there are far fewer chaos teams than other teams?

Well that last one is clearly incorrect. All three elf teams in total is about the same as the number of chaos teams listed. And nurgle and CDs are right up there as well.

The top 5 most popular teams are all bashers. What does that tell us? Maybe lots of them are retired? I don't know, but why would we assume that a higher % of those teams are retired than for any other race?

Anyway, I don't know who's right. All I know is several people are making claims without offering anything much to support those claims.

My claim is that a random match maker should actually be random. Apparently it is not. If that's intended then so be it, I'm just curious about why.
soranos



Joined: May 14, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:26 Reply with quote Back to top

I have to say that I have also lost my interest in the box a bit. I gave it a try for the first time after the re-launch and at first really liked it a lot. The thrill of not knowing your opponent and the fear of a possible mismatch was different from a structured league or ranked. Now after a little more than 50 games I tend to play less and less in the box. On of the reasons is that the variety of teams just was not there for me so far. Lots of games against Chaos and Nurgle and other bashers and 4 games combined vs all elfs, humans, amazons combined. Playing a C-POMB team here and there can be a chilling challenge, but I don't need it that every third game. It is not a style that is supposed to make the game enjoyable for the opponent. And when I want to make a game after a tough day at work, it is not the type of stuff I am looking for most of the time.

Another thing is, that I feel the box has less personality fluff-wise. I don't like firing players with skills, but in box it is highly recommend, as you don't want to go at a TV where the C-POMB-team-quote is even higher and everything is "mini-maxed". I respect that approach to the game and understand its merits, but it is not my cup of tea. I'm still rooted too much in the old TT-days I guess, where firing players was a cardinal sin. So in the box you play some, get knocked down, play some, get knocked down again by mostly faceless teams with names like "C-POMB Squad", "Pilling On 4 win" (probably not actual team names, but you get the point) (and no, not all teams are this "faceless", but definitely more than in Ranked).

So I am playing more ranked again, were coaches seem to care more about the fluff. And I finally found my way into the tournament scene and find it to be the most enjoyable way to play the game (besides structured leagues). It has the best of both worlds: the thrill of not knowing your opponent, but more fluff and you actually have more variety than in the Box (and so far less boring C-POMB teams). I will try to apply for a smack or minor every week and throw my old LRB4 teams into the competition instead of straight retiring them.
Woodstock



Joined: Dec 11, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:30 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:
*text*

I'm suggesting every thing is possible, and unless you are going to evaluate each draw, you can not make any conclusions about what those data actually mean.
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 03:50 Reply with quote Back to top

Woodstock wrote:
What you are saying actually proves...... Nothing. Do you have data on what teams were activated during the times those teams got scheduled? How did the other combination of matches score on suitability?
How many teams are actually active in the box? How is that spread over the TV range?... You should stop focusing on what you want to see, and accept that it could actually works with the input that is given.


+ quite a bit
The_Murker



Joined: Jan 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:13 Reply with quote Back to top

Suitability? Do you know what you are talking about? If you don't have the suitability formula, your speculation is useless and not helpful. I'm using observations. The very same observations you can make yourself by opening a Chaos team's "matches played" history. It does not have an equal portion of Chaos based opponents that other races face. Humans in particular. That is not fair.. Chaos based teams smash other teams. They might not win much more than other teams, but they smash much more. All teams should be subject to the same level of this smashing. (especially if CLAWPOMB turns out to be overpowered in the end)
I am asking for a review of the formula, as I think it is clearly unfair, and the poll indicates around 70% of box players might agree with me.
As a human coach, or a former one if this isn't resolved, the current "suitability" model hits my team quite hard, dishing out large handfuls of Chaos destruction. I am not surprised if other races, such as elves aren't quite as concerned, as elves tend to get paired with other types of elves much more often, but humans, no so much. When my roster is consistently filled with MNG, and my team often losing one or two players on turn 1, no skill required of the enemy, I am being kept from the opportunity of playing well on a level playing field, which is all I want to do. Out numbered 10 to 6 most second half drives robs me of the opportunity to play well. Damage control or run and hide aren't fun. I'm pretty new, and we want more new players, so I'm asking for an environment where people who want to play humans above 1600 TV aren't screwed over, game after game.
The solution is simple, and I'll type extra slow. Activate all the teams you want to play. The BOT then looks ONLY at the TV numbers presented to it, and gives every coach a match-up based on the closest TV number match to one of their teams. The BOT never even knows the race of the teams. It does not need to. I'm no programmer, but I bet I could use PASCAL to come up with a simple and fair pairing algorithm given half an hour. There is no draw back to that idea. It is fair. Does anybody have a reason they would not like this idea? All I can think of is that Chaos would be disappointed getting bashed back for a change. Any body? Anybody have a valid reason?

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Igvy



Joined: Apr 29, 2007

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:18 Reply with quote Back to top

Woodstock wrote:
Afaik the 'mirror'-penalty was removed. Ill ask Christer when I see him.

Btw, if it is still there... I think the influence is far less then any one that complains about wants it to be..


Isn't it like a 3% weighting to the matchup stat. Which would make so little difference it is just plain stupid to make a big deal about.

The issue here is balance. Like it or not PO is unbalaced. The game now revolves around it, build a team with it, or build a team the play against it.

So lets just make this thread into another lets nerf PO thread.
I thought of a new one, when using PO you can't cause a cas. Only a ko. This wouldn't have too much negative effect but would mean it was less of an issue. If people want you might not be able to apo these ko's, but that would be really minor.
The_Murker



Joined: Jan 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:25 Reply with quote Back to top

Another guess at a number and speculation that it has no real bearing of any concaquence. Incorrect I believe. This is not an anti Clawpomb thread, its a "make the Bot random and fair" thread.

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licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Woodstock wrote:
licker wrote:
*text*

I'm suggesting every thing is possible, and unless you are going to evaluate each draw, you can not make any conclusions about what those data actually mean.


No, you're suggesting that something is not possible.

And honestly, you don' t need to evaluate each draw to make a conclusion, the field of statistics is really all I need to invoke to make that point.

But this is rather beside the point. Until someone either shows the formula (not guesses at it) or supplies the actual data (in aggregate there should be more than enough games played to show an imbalance, or lack thereof) then we're all just blowing smoke.
Woodstock



Joined: Dec 11, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:42 Reply with quote Back to top

Little outdated, but basics are the same: https://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=16727
The_Murker



Joined: Jan 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:48 Reply with quote Back to top

First helpful post. Thank-you. I'll look it over.

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Woodstock



Joined: Dec 11, 2004

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:51 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:
Woodstock wrote:
licker wrote:
*text*

I'm suggesting every thing is possible, and unless you are going to evaluate each draw, you can not make any conclusions about what those data actually mean.


No, you're suggesting that something is not possible.


I do? I thought I was suggesting it was very unlikely mirror matches would happen. Not that it was not possible.
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Apr 19, 2011 - 04:51 Reply with quote Back to top

The_Murker wrote:
First helpful post. Thank-you. I'll look it over.


Dude. Hint" no point arguing with Woodstock. It's like trying to argue with Skynet.
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