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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 12:37 Reply with quote Back to top

I am putting out a call to all the statistical junkies that frequent this forum to help me get a grasp on risk vs reward of fouling in this edition. Specifically, I ask about using the new skill Pile Drive.

For this example, I will use a human blitzer. I will skill him with Mighty Blow, Pile Driver, and Dirty Player in that order. What are the odds of removing an opposing player vs being sent off by the ref? I will make it easiest by asking for stats without the benefit of assists on the foul but if someone get an inkling to incorporate those, it would be very helpful.

My thought is to utilize Pile Driver mostly if I break armor but do not get a removal. In this case, I know my chance of being sent off is 1/6. Otherwise I am a bit in the dark.
mister__joshua



Joined: Jun 20, 2007

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 12:46
FUMBBL Staff
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I think you might be confused as to how Pile Driver works. It's a foul action, so teh removal chance is the same whether you break armour on the block or not - you'd still have to roll the armour and injury.

Pile Driver + Sneaky Git might be an interesting concept to try, as the odds would be much more favourable.

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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 12:53 Reply with quote Back to top

mister__joshua wrote:
I think you might be confused as to how Pile Driver works. It's a foul action, so teh removal chance is the same whether you break armour on the block or not - you'd still have to roll the armour and injury.

Pile Driver + Sneaky Git might be an interesting concept to try, as the odds would be much more favourable.


Lets assume the player with pile driver throws a block and knocks down his opponent. My read is that you roll for armor break and see what happens. If armor is broken you then roll for injury.

After that, you decide if you want to use Pile Driver. Hence if armor is already broken you do not need to roll to break armor again. You are simply rolling for injury. Since armor was broken on the block, you only risk a double with the foul on an injury roll.

Now, if you did not break armor on the block, I agree that you have the same chance of being sent off as you do with a normal foul because you will have to roll for both armor and injury.

From the FAQ:
Q: Does the free Foul action from Pile Driver happen before or after making the Armour roll (and potentially an Injury roll) for the player being Knocked Down? (p.80)
A: After – so long as the player is still on the pitch of course!


Last edited by Kondor on May 19, 2022 - 13:28; edited 1 time in total
ArthurWynne



Joined: Sep 23, 2015

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 13:27 Reply with quote Back to top

Quote:
After that, you decide if you want to use Pile Driver. Hence if armor is already broken you do not need to roll to break armor again.


This is wrong. What Pile Driver does for a player is, when an opposition player is Knocked Down by that player as a result of a Block action, if that player is still Standing and adjacent to the Knocked Down player, the player may immediately commit a free Foul action against the Knocked Down player.

So first you resolve the entire Block action (including armor and injury rolls, if applicable) and then you take an entirely separate Foul action - beginning with the armor roll.
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 13:34 Reply with quote Back to top

ArthurWynne wrote:
Quote:
After that, you decide if you want to use Pile Driver. Hence if armor is already broken you do not need to roll to break armor again.


This is wrong. What Pile Driver does for a player is, when an opposition player is Knocked Down by that player as a result of a Block action, if that player is still Standing and adjacent to the Knocked Down player, the player may immediately commit a free Foul action against the Knocked Down player.

So first you resolve the entire Block action (including armor and injury rolls, if applicable) and then you take an entirely separate Foul action - beginning with the armor roll.


Is this how it is implemented in the client. I have seen arguments in both directions. I will not argue it one way or another.

Some time ago I remember this discussion in relation to the deathroller. The logic being that Pile Driver is even better on the roller since it adds +2 to the injury if you break armor on the initial block.
Candlejack



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 13:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Pile driver gives you the option to perform a foul action after a block action if the opposing player is still on the pitch.

So if you break armour on the block but do not remove the player you can the foul the stunned oppenent afterwards. That foul is the same as if you were fouling with a different player.

Nothing in the rules suggests you would be mixinf actions and an armour roll result never carries over between actions.

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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 13:47 Reply with quote Back to top

Candlejack wrote:
Pile driver gives you the option to perform a foul action after a block action if the opposing player is still on the pitch.

So if you break armour on the block but do not remove the player you can the foul the stunned oppenent afterwards. That foul is the same as if you were fouling with a different player.

Nothing in the rules suggests you would be mixinf actions and an armour roll result never carries over between actions.


Ok. Thanks for the information. Everyone can ignore this post now.
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 14:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Pile Driver is really useless. You can't even take it randomly on a Mummy or Ogre to gain SPPs using it on T16 because it's a Foul Action.
Many of the new skills they added are useless, they are just bad fillers to have 12 skills per category.
Foad



Joined: Sep 02, 2007

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 14:33 Reply with quote Back to top

The best skill to combine with Pile Driver isn't Mighty Blow, it's Sneaky Git.

If you want to put these on a lineman, that's probably 80k.

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Medon



Joined: Jan 28, 2015

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 18:40 Reply with quote Back to top

But you are already allowed one foul action each turn, also without pile driver
So pile driver brings absolutely nothing at all
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 20:48 Reply with quote Back to top

Medon wrote:
But you are already allowed one foul action each turn, also without pile driver
So pile driver brings absolutely nothing at all


The only use is on a death roller. DP+2 if you don't take them out with mighty blow why not try with PD? That way you can hit and foul with the same player.

Yeah. My Table Top league will be full of house rules to make a few of these skills usefull.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 20:52 Reply with quote Back to top

Okay, so let's say you PD any knockdown or stun. Your opponent is AV8+ to AV10+, and does not have Stunty or Thick Skull. You do not have Dirty Player, but you do have Mighty Blow.

With Mighty Blow, vs AV=X, your chance of a Cas, KO, or removal (Cas/KO combined) is based on 1296 permutations (6x6x6x6). You can divide by 13 to get a rough percentage.

AV10+: 84 Cas, 102 KO, 186 combined. 186/13 ~ 14%+
AV9+: 130 Cas, 155, KO, 285 combined. 285/13 ~ 22%
AV8+: 186 Cas, 219 KO, 405 combined. 405/13 ~ 31%+

And then if that doesn't happen, you do the whole Pile Driver thing. Here, we have our remainder (85%+, 78%, or 69%, use 85%, 75% or 7/9, or 70% to save your sanity), where the netAV after assists is whats being tested. On Armor, there are 36 permutations with four possible outcomes: break, break/caught, fail, and fail/caught. I'll separate them with commas and a space between break and fail.

10+: 4,2, 26,4
9+: 8,2, 22,4
8+: 12,3, 18,3
7+: 18,3 12,3
6+: 22,4 8,2
5+: 26,4 4,2
4+: 28,5 2,1
3+: 30,5 0,1
2+: 30,6 0,0

Okay. So take that number, and multiply all the fails by 36 to determine how many of each fail and fail/caught you get out of 1296 (divide by 13 to get a percentage, as above). That way all our numbers will be consistent. Then, for the pass/caught, multiply by 15 to get the chance of a removal (6 Cas, 9 KOs). Then, for the breaks where you don't get caught, multiply your chance by the following:
Cas: 4, plus 2 (caught)
KO: 8, plus 1 (caught)
Removal: 12, plus 3 (caught)
Stun: 18, plus 3 (caught).

I'll make a concrete example of it when I'm a little less woozy. Only so much math at a time.

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Medon



Joined: Jan 28, 2015

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 22:17 Reply with quote Back to top

but you should compare this to: Your player with mighty blow blitzes, knocks the opponent down and stands next to it. Your lowlife zombie walks in and performs a normal foul, with the +1 assist from your blitzer. The chances of removal are higher for this one and you don't need to learn pile driver for it.
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 23:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Iam all in for a skill that gives me 2 fouls in a turn. Just saying. Heck if I have 4 guys with Pile Drive, I can get up to 5 fouls a turn.

It is a "vegas soul" outlook on life, roll some dice and if they come up good? If they come up bad?

Is this a required skill, hell no, does it increase your chances of removing players, heck yeah. Just depends on your style of play.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: May 19, 2022 - 23:47 Reply with quote Back to top

Medon wrote:
but you should compare this to: Your player with mighty blow blitzes, knocks the opponent down and stands next to it. Your lowlife zombie walks in and performs a normal foul, with the +1 assist from your blitzer. The chances of removal are higher for this one and you don't need to learn pile driver for it.


Well, on one hand I agree.

BUT

Lets say your blitzer knocks him down, fails on the AV check.

He then Pile Drives, once again fails AV check and is not sent off.

Then you send in a zombie and he gives the old fashion DP boot.

Well, from a stats perspective. If you did all of that against a AV8 player. You are well over 70% chance at some point to break his AV. You got to roll 3 times on a 9+ roll and 2 rolls against getting sent off. That is not even including bonus for MB or DP.

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