spelledaren
Joined: Mar 06, 2004
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 Posted:
Nov 09, 2025 - 10:59 |
 
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Are we betting on how they will perform or what tier GW will put them in? |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2025 - 12:17 |
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| spelledaren wrote: | | Are we betting on how they will perform or what tier GW will put them in? |
how they will perform in black box specifically... this discounts C matchmaker |
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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love a bit of informed total guesswork, so here's mine:
Teir - 0
>55%
Amazons
OWA
Necromantic
Tier – 1
50% – 55%
Shambling Undead
Orc
Norse
Wood Elf
UW
Dark Elf
Vampire
Imperial Nobility
Tier – 2
45% - 49%
Lizardmen
Skaven
Khemri
Chaos Dwarf
Bretonnian
Nurgle
Chaos Chosen
Tier – 3
35% - 44%
Elven Union
Dorf
Black Orc
Snotling
Human
Chaos Renegades
Khorne
Ogre
Goblin
Tier – 4
30% – 34%
Gnome
Halfling |
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Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2025 - 17:58 |
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and dwarf? |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Nov 09, 2025 - 18:14 |
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He put them in tier 3.
I think Humans will push into tier 2, otherwise I agree with all this. |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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Flea94
Joined: May 06, 2022
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Nov 10, 2025 - 11:25 |
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I feel Nurgle is getting seriously underrated here |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 10, 2025 - 11:45 |
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It would be really useful to know the exact Season's parameters.
A weak starting team could get better than the tier suggests, given enough games to develop.
Without random MVP developing the key players is easier.
How long does a Season last in the new edition?
What is the Re-Draft budget?
How crippling are the permanent Injuries?
The Season context is essential. |
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Drrek
Joined: Jul 23, 2012
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Nov 10, 2025 - 16:48 |
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Dorf will not be in a 35-44% category I feel pretty sure of. The majority of box games are played a low tv, and there the dorfs are still a mass block team. They have nothing good to take when spp starts coming in, but they will still be better than most teams at rookie TV. |
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Jayward
Joined: Dec 22, 2020
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Nov 11, 2025 - 11:22 |
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Surprised how high Norse are in the stats pages. I know they're good early doors but I wouldn't have put them top 3. And if you look at the 2025 stats they're top of the pile on 62%: https://fumbbl.com/p/rosterstats?y=2025
Makes a really interesting contrast to their NAF stats for BB2020, where they've got the lowest win rate of any tier 1 team at 49.12% after 17k games.
It'll be fascinating to see if that carries over into the new edition; they're a favourite of mine |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 11, 2025 - 12:54 |
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NAF use comp... which will lower their win ratio significantly. Also they don't allow 2x Ma on every team which currently any norse team with sense that plays multiple seasons has on their runner... The scary thing is I believe the stats that you are using includes mirror matches... which ideally would be possible to remove from the data as it artificially lowers their average |
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spinball
Joined: Jul 01, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 11, 2025 - 21:25 |
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Tier - 1
>55%
Amazons (could be Tier 0, 60% is very possible)
Vampires
Tier – 2
50% – 55%
OWA (borderline Tier 1)
Wood Elf
Lizardmen
Necromatic
Undead
Dark Elf
Norse
Brettonian
Orcs
Tier – 3
45% - 49%
Tomb Kings
Underworld
Elven Union
Chaos Dwarf
Dwarf
Skaven
Nobility
Humans
Nurgle
Tier – 4
35% - 44%
Khorne
Chaos Chosen
Black Orc
Renegades
Gnomes
Snotlings
Tier – 5
30% – 34%
Goblin
Halfling
Ogres |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 11, 2025 - 21:47 |
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| spinball wrote: | Tier - 1
>55%
Amazons (could be Tier 0, 60% is very possible)
Vampires
Tier – 2
50% – 55%
OWA (borderline Tier 1)
Wood Elf
Lizardmen
Necromatic
Undead
Dark Elf
Norse
Brettonian
Orcs
Tier – 3
45% - 49%
Tomb Kings
Underworld
Elven Union
Chaos Dwarf
Dwarf
Skaven
Nobility
Humans
Nurgle
Tier – 4
35% - 44%
Khorne
Chaos Chosen
Black Orc
Renegades
Gnomes
Snotlings
Tier – 5
30% – 34%
Goblin
Halfling
Ogres |
FYI Tier 0 or s tier is >55%
60 or higher us just broken 😆 |
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Vicen
Joined: Jan 05, 2023
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| Posted:
Nov 12, 2025 - 06:38 |
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Win rate and tier classification are two different things (although they influence each other). Pre-tournament bonuses influence the results. Then influence tier listing or buff/debuff in FAQ.
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The Black Orks and Khorne teams will have an S4 ball carrier. This will help them break away from the weaker teams, but they will undoubtedly remain low tier. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on their progress.
Khemri is poised to become one of the best bash team in the game. Now that they can pick up the ball before the seventh turn.
When it comes to the Dwarves, don't rely on what we know about their past distinctive play style. In particular, we can expect a drop in performance against Amazons and Lizardmen. |
Last edited by Vicen on Nov 12, 2025; edited 3 times in total |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 12, 2025 - 09:05 |
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| Vicen wrote: | Win rate and tier classification are two different things (although they influence each other). Pre-tournament bonuses influence the results. Then influence tier listing or buff/debuff in FAQ.
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Depends what you're referring too. If you're talking about game design then they're intrinsically linked. The brackets myself and purple chest have used were the official brackets used to design the teams.
If you're talking about res tournaments then yes win percentage is skewed due to comping tiers... which means lower toer teams get a booster win percentage due to a better skill pack, and higher tier teams get fewer skills and so on which pushes the races closer together.
For clarity this thread is looking at and trying to guess which tier bracket (win percentage bracket) teams will fall into after a couple of years of play testing in blackbox |
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Vicen
Joined: Jan 05, 2023
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| Posted:
Nov 12, 2025 - 10:01 |
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In any case, I'm discovering the Stats tab on Fumbbl, it's captivating.
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Snotlings Tier 1 (55% win-rate) in 2024 
(as might be expected, team statistics are highly dependent on the level of their coaches) |
Last edited by Vicen on Nov 12, 2025; edited 2 times in total |
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