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 Issue 17 - September 1st 2516

Sneaky Git Tactics

by bghandras

Sneaky Git or not to Sneaky Git? That is the Question.

Let's assume you want to use fouling as a valid tactic, as suggested by my article in the GLN 16. Let's assume that you can decide if you want to bolt Sneaky Git onto any of your players. It costs 20 k of TV if that player has agility access, 30 k if it has not. I will take you through the analysis of when it is worth it, and when it is not. I will go into the details and the numbers in this article. If that is for you, then continue reading. If you are not interested in the calculations, then jump to the very end, and read the conclusion only. The result is simple and robust.

Valuation Method

This is the mathematical part of the article. But if you want to reap the fun, then get this straight first. If you foul, then there is a chance your player will be sent off. Yes, even with Sneaky Git. This means that you lose TV on average with every foul you commit. If the chance of a player being sent off is small, or the value of the player committing the foul is small, then the expected loss is small. In a basic scenario, where you foul with an unskilled player with a worth of 70 TV, you lose 20 k on average, as the chance of being sent off is about 30 %.

Did you know?

The Green Tide are under official investigation for tampering with match balls. All match balls used in FUMBBL games must be inflated to 12.5 PSI, however in a recent game against the Dirty Cranberries, coach akaRenton complained to the officials that someone had been tampering with his teams footballs when, on one passing play, the ball floated out of his Zombie's hand and out of the stadium! Although, technically, when the ball started to float away, the Zombie's hand snapped off at the wrist and so it never technically left his hand. Officials found that eleven of the Cranberries' twelve match footballs had been filled with lighter than air marsh gas. Officials will also have to consider the Tide's previous conviction of espionage, when a member of Left My Heart In San Francisco was discovered to be an albino goblin feeding secret play information back to The Great Gobbo and the Tide.

Sneaky Git Effect

Let me be blunt and straight. Sneaky Git does not help you to foul more effectively. Sneaky Git helps you to mitigate the loss upon fouling. So there is very little else to consider beyond the expected loss. Let's look at a chart which compares the chance of successful fouling with and without Sneaky Git depending on the target's AV (accounting for assists):

 0:   31%   31% 
 1:   31%   31% 
 2:   31%   28% 
 3:   31%   28% 
 4:   31%   26% 
 5:   31%   26% 
 6:   31%  24% 
 7:   31%   24% 
 8:   31%   21% 
 9:   31%   21% 

So Sneaky Git is more effective as you increase the armour of the prone player (so as the effectiveness of the foul decreases). Sneaky Git has no effect on breaking armour, or on the injury roll. Let's take a few realistic examples where I calculate the expected loss of TV upon fouling.

Example 1 (Norse Lineman)

You need to roll at least 7 to break the armour, your player has a cost of 50 k without Sneaky Git, or 80 k with Sneaky Git. The expected loss is either 50 k * 31 % or 80 k * 21 %. You lose about 15 k in TV without Sneaky Git, and about 17 k with Sneaky Git. Conclusion: Do not take Sneaky Git on a Norse / Amazon / Human Lineman.

Example 2 (Goblin Lineman)

You need to roll at least 7 to break the armour, your player has a cost of 40 k without Sneaky Git, or 60 k with Sneaky Git. The expected loss is either 40 k * 31 % or 60 k * 21 %. You lose about 12 k in TV without Sneaky Git, and about 13 k with Sneaky Git. Conclusion: Do not take Sneaky Git on a Goblin Lineman.

Example 3 (Dark Elf Lineman)

You need to roll at least 7 to break the armour, your player has a cost of 70 k without Sneaky Git, or 90 k with Sneaky Git. The expected loss is either 70 k * 31 % or 90 k * 21 %. You lose about 21 k in TV without Sneaky Git, and about 19 k with Sneaky Git. Conclusion: If you plan to do about 10 fouls with the same Dark Elf Lineman in a single game on average, then you break even. But hell, dont take Sneaky Git on a Dark Elf Lineman.

What About Assists?

If you increase the number of assists, then Sneaky Git gets worse, so the argument that it gets better is invalid. Actually, Dirty Player combos badly with Sneaky Git, as do assists. So the argument that Dirty Player helps is also invalid!

What About the Extreme Case?

Even if you would foul with a Dark Elf Lineman against an AV9 player all day long, on all 16 turns, the expected profit is still marginal. You need to do at least about 5 fouls on average with that player to break even.

Conclusion

Do not EVER take Sneaky Git under the current ruleset.

P.S. If your league runs the option of banned Sneaky Gits going to the KO box, then it changes the maths, and you should absolutely take the skill.

 
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