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Fishscale



Joined: Oct 07, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 24, 2003 - 01:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Is it just me or does the host almost always win the coin toss? If so, there might be an advantage to hosting. Has anyone ever noticed this?
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 24, 2003 - 01:38
FUMBBL Staff
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Nope. It seems fair to me and I host most of my games.
Golgomoth



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post 7 Posted: Oct 24, 2003 - 01:38 Reply with quote Back to top

no m8, i nearly always host, and nearly always lose toss
Aequitas



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 02:08 Reply with quote Back to top

I host almost all of my games, and I notice that if I select Heads, I'm going to win over 80% of the time.

My friend has a similiar.. problem, in that everytime he selects Heads, it's Tails and vice versa. I try not to point and laugh, but it's interesting in that It's almost the exact opposite. But hey I'm not complaining, I enjoy winning the toss. Just thought I'd relate my... luck, if it really is that.

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Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 02:24 Reply with quote Back to top

It is 50/50, end of story. Perception affects the numbers you think you see, someone who thinks they are always winning the toss will notice the results that match with that belief and pay less attention to those that do not, and the same is true for someone who thinks they are losing the toss too often. Very basic psychology.

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orochinagi



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 03:05 Reply with quote Back to top

yep... i agree with Mr-Klipp. I think it's fair the way it is... i don't mind if my opponent hosts... but many times when i host i lose the toss... but one always tends to give more attention to failed rolls/tosses than succesful ones.
cataphract



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 06:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Aequitas wrote:
I host almost all of my games, and I notice that if I select Heads, I'm going to win over 80% of the time.




nah you win 80% of the time whe u pick tails... tails never fails!

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Rampage76



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 07:44 Reply with quote Back to top

20% of the time it does Smile
Aequitas



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 11:54 Reply with quote Back to top

Maybe that's how it's supposed to work Klippster, but it is NOT 50/50 for neither my friend nor myself. Perhaps it is luck, but it's one extreme for me (constantly winning the toss) and one extreme for my friend (constantly losing the toss). Neither seem to change over time.

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Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 12:06 Reply with quote Back to top

Aequitas wrote:
Maybe that's how it's supposed to work Klippster, but it is NOT 50/50 for neither my friend nor myself. Perhaps it is luck, but it's one extreme for me (constantly winning the toss) and one extreme for my friend (constantly losing the toss). Neither seem to change over time.


Well, lets see here. You could be the one and only person who always manages to win the coin toss, or a basic principle of psychology (the same thing that makes people remember the correct predictions of psychics and horoscopes and forget all the wrong ones) is making you think you are.

I know which one I think is more likely.

If you don't believe me, take a notepad and put it by the computer. Write down every time you start a game, and the result of the coin toss. Not every time you win it, but record the results of every game you play and over time you will see it average out to 50/50.

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Mully



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 15:03 Reply with quote Back to top

I've noticed something else wrong as well. It seems I receive on every 1st half kick off. When I win the toss I choose to receive and when I lose the toss I end up receiving as well.

Weird ....................

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BunnyPuncher



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 18:18 Reply with quote Back to top

ummm... don't click on the YES!

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psikobunny



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 20:31 Reply with quote Back to top

The point Klipp is trying to make, one I agree with and have made before, is that if you "notice" or "think" things are a certain way, you have not engaged in impartial observation. You are relying on memory, which is at best flawed.

Go do a Google search on 'selective perception', 'subjective perception', and 'probability and perception' I'm sure you'll find some good reading on the matter instead of trying to convince those of us who know better with anecdotal evidence.
Grumbledook



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 20:35 Reply with quote Back to top

i host pretty much every match i play and cause most people don't have the exp ofab checked on like they should i can't actually choose the coin just close the box, so neither of us chooses

i nearly always seem to lose it though, so maybe that evens it out against Aequitas always winning his

and as for it always being heads people used to say that in the chat a year ago and i used to pick heads every single match, i reckon i lost more than i won, like klipp said its perception, sure you might win 10 in row but 10 is hardly enough data to get a proper indication

its the same with betting red black on roulette, but i won't get into betting strategys on here or i will waffle on for ages ;]
Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 27, 2003 - 23:06 Reply with quote Back to top

Mully wrote:
I've noticed something else wrong as well. It seems I receive on every 1st half kick off. When I win the toss I choose to receive and when I lose the toss I end up receiving as well.

Weird ....................


When you win the toss, you chose, and there are a number of people who like to kickoff the first half.

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