athoragg
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 00:19 |
 
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well in over 100 games hosted by me over months and months i think i win 70-30. and i allways pick heads. Though of course a real coin could allways land on heads more than tails in 100 throws. Though also a coin could land on its side (as staited on Soul Reaver 2), and you dont get that in the coin toss at the start (dispite it being estimated that it would take about 80,000 flips of the coin on average for it to happen once or more with a pound coin). |
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ClayInfinity
Joined: Aug 15, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 00:29 |
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I have the exp ofab option thingy come up... and hence can't select my coin (tails never fails!)
How do I correct that? |
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ClayInfinity
Joined: Aug 15, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 01:11 |
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Thanks MrKlipp... just saw your news post re my query above... Cheers |
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cataphract
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 02:14 |
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| Mr-Klipp wrote: | | Aequitas wrote: | | Maybe that's how it's supposed to work Klippster, but it is NOT 50/50 for neither my friend nor myself. Perhaps it is luck, but it's one extreme for me (constantly winning the toss) and one extreme for my friend (constantly losing the toss). Neither seem to change over time. |
Well, lets see here. You could be the one and only person who always manages to win the coin toss, or a basic principle of psychology (the same thing that makes people remember the correct predictions of psychics and horoscopes and forget all the wrong ones) is making you think you are.
I know which one I think is more likely.
If you don't believe me, take a notepad and put it by the computer. Write down every time you start a game, and the result of the coin toss. Not every time you win it, but record the results of every game you play and over time you will see it average out to 50/50. |
yeah... get yourself a null hypothesis and disprove that! |
_________________
"the eunuch should not take pride in its chastity" |
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Petter
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 03:52 |
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| Mr-Klipp wrote: | | It is 50/50, end of story. Perception affects the numbers you think you see, someone who thinks they are always winning the toss will notice the results that match with that belief and pay less attention to those that do not, and the same is true for someone who thinks they are losing the toss too often. Very basic psychology. |
Amen. |
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poodle-man
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 05:46 |
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Is it just me or does the whole stasticall thing strike you as a little odd. Say you flipped a coin a hundred times. The frequency of it coming down either heads or tails would likely be close, but not quite, 50 times either way. Like 48 to 52 or something. And we say, well its a 50% percent chance then. But is it? You are taking the randomness of the coin as a given. Perhaps the coin does come down on heads that much more often. But because you know that its 50-50 you round off the answer. And if you flipped the coin a thoasand times it would likley be near to 500 times each side yea? But would it be exactly 500 times each side? And if not why is 500 times, or 50% the decided upon chance? why not 49% or 51% as either is as likely with such a small sample size. I guess my point is, if you are taking the answers to these sorta questions as givens, why ask them at all? Or maybe my point is i should not write up when im drunk. One of the two... ah well |
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The Tr th. |
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thmbscrws
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 07:13 |
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I recently played a game where I not only lost the coin toss but on several occasions rolled double ones. Clearly their is something horribly wrong with the client for these things to have occured. I mean come on, I roll a one then rerolled it and I got a one agian!!!! Bullshit, this would never happen in real life, ever. Clearly based on this one game where i rolled double ones, the random number generator is not random at all and is in fact biased against me for some reason. I demand this be corrected, I will nt be happy with the random nature of the random number generator until I make every single roll I atempt. Then and only then will it be clear that the game is actually random.  |
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MixX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 07:39 |
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| thmbscrws wrote: | | I recently played a game where I not only lost the coin toss but on several occasions rolled double ones. Clearly their is something horribly wrong with the client for these things to have occured. I mean come on, I roll a one then rerolled it and I got a one agian!!!! Bullshit, this would never happen in real life, ever. Clearly based on this one game where i rolled double ones, the random number generator is not random at all and is in fact biased against me for some reason. I demand this be corrected, I will nt be happy with the random nature of the random number generator until I make every single roll I atempt. Then and only then will it be clear that the game is actually random. |
LOL |
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Surre
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 09:05 |
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As in every case with random outcomes people seems to get confused. First of all, you can't draw conclusions of a small amount of cases. If you continue 1.000.000 you will most likely be very very close to 50%. And I believe in the psychology Mr-Klipp talks about. But an other issue is that it would be extremely unlikely if noone got very lucky and someone else got very unlucky after say 100 tosses. The probability that all of us where close to 50% after 100 games is tiny. I don't feel like do the exact math now, but my guess is that it is more likely that someone has a win percent of >80% than that noone has it.
But then, if I was that person I also could ask myself, and others, if there is a bug or not. But I would need little proof to believe in the opposite. If the statistics would state that every single player who played 100+ games had a 45-55% winning percent, then I would really wonder if there where a bug! |
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Kaz
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 10:36 |
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| thmbscrws wrote: | | I recently played a game where I not only lost the coin toss but on several occasions rolled double ones. Clearly their is something horribly wrong with the client for these things to have occured. I mean come on, I roll a one then rerolled it and I got a one agian!!!! Bullshit, this would never happen in real life, ever. Clearly based on this one game where i rolled double ones, the random number generator is not random at all and is in fact biased against me for some reason. I demand this be corrected, I will nt be happy with the random nature of the random number generator until I make every single roll I atempt. Then and only then will it be clear that the game is actually random. |
I would like to refer to the wonderfully stated:
"And I don't see anyone complaining when they roll a 2die block, and get 2 pows (a 6 & 6), then get box cars to break armor, twelve on the injury roll, and a 6 to kill the target. 7 6's in a row is far less probable then 2 1's, but no one ever complains when that happens." |
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Fudge
Joined: Sep 29, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 11:31 |
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 that happened to me the other night he rolled (6,6) , (6,6) and 6  to kill.
But seriously ia acctually have to agree that some of the dice rolls are mathemathichly redicoulus, like in some games when one rolls more then 2 doulbe skulls with rerolls directly after( this should happen every 1296 th time, to get a double skull and reroll double skull) but this happens alot more often .
The same with some other things like breaking armour or GFI.
But there might be some other thing if it isn´t the dice gen perhaps it´s the rerolls, they sometimes seem to have hickuped when rerolling.
You are entiteled to think i´m wrong ( hey i just might be nobodys perfect , not even me , but i still think that there is some thing wrong with the thing becuse of the extreme dice rolls that occur way to often. |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 11:58 |
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well.... here are my 2 pennies worth...
yeah 1/1296 is still going to happen mate, it doesnt happen on the 1296th roll, it might be on the first or second roll of the match... you just dont realise it until something bad happens to you like triple skulls/ triple skull reroll... you forget about the rest of the rolls you made during the match like a triple pow with your fling vs an ogre... the rolls are just random (check the dice log if you want)
One last thing.... i usually find that people who complain about bad luck are generally the most risky players... |
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SubSonic
Joined: Aug 22, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 12:29 |
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I agree that after all, its quite random. Even tho i have remember to experience the "heads allways win" thought myself.
Ofc its possible that you throw 10 heads in a row with a normal coin. Or even 100. But its very unlikely. Most likely it will be 50/50. But ofc it can be different. But statistically on average of all coinflips it will be 50/50.
The probability to throw # heads in a row from 10 flips:
10: 0,1 %
9: 0,98%
8: 4,39%
7: 11,72%
6: 20,51%
5: 24,61%
4: 20,51%
3: 11,72%
2: 4,39%
1: 0,98%
0: 0,1%
So as you can see, its possible to win 10 times in a row, but quite unlikely ( 1/1000 probability)
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html
there is a calculator where u can try different probabilities if u like... |
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Surre
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 12:31 |
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| Fudge_it wrote: | But seriously ia acctually have to agree that some of the dice rolls are mathemathichly redicoulus, like in some games when one rolls more then 2 doulbe skulls with rerolls directly after( this should happen every 1296 th time, to get a double skull and reroll double skull) but this happens alot more often .
The same with some other things like breaking armour or GFI.
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If teams rolls 3 double-dice blocks on average every turn that means a total of 96 double-dice blocks per match. That means 2-3 double skulls per match on average. If all of those are rerolled, the case of dubbelskull-RR-dubbelskull would happen every 14:th match or so. That is really not that rare! In my matches that means it should have happened not less than 6 times! But I don't think it has happened that many times, maybe 2 times or so. In your (Fudge_it) amount of games you should also have witnessed this about 6 times, given my assumptions.
It would be nice if someone let the dice-generator used in the Client roll 100.000 times and present the results. That might once and for all kill of this type of discussions that I am sure will just keep going forever otherwise. |
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Moekel
Joined: Sep 04, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 12:34 |
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| Quote: | One last thing.... i usually find that people who complain about bad luck are generally the most risky players...
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nah .. i had games where i couldn't pick up the ball (well my players couldn't) 6 times in a row (no shure hands) with a ag 3 player... now suppose you simply do not have shure hands on your team, you might have brilliant start and all but there is no way you will get anthing done if you can not pick up the ball..
on the other hand complaining and whining is part of the game (and to some part of the fun it seems) |
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