RedDevilCG
Joined: Jan 09, 2010
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Feb 11, 2015 - 20:51 |
 
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Another way too think about it is like this. Assuming you have DP and lots of assists so that you're very likely to break armour WITHOUT using DP(AV5 or better), you still have about a 1/3 chance of getting ejected for about a 58% chance of a KO or better.
Or, like having 0 rerolls and throwing a 1D block without the Block skill, and a skull or both down CASes your player. All that for a 58% chance of sending your opponent to the box in one shape or form.
If you're in a position where you're not going to throw a 1D block with a rookie lineman, then that same situation probably means you're not going to foul either, even if you have tons of assists.
A DPer is about 60-80k so you don't foul most rookies unless you need that stun to protect your cage, or it's a rookie Gutter/War Dancer on the ground. |
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NerdBird
Joined: Apr 08, 2014
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:01 |
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| PainState wrote: | #3: If you have a sneaky git, he always fouls with no assists, even against AV9. The Git is a free shot, by adding 7 assists to the foul you have now negated the sneakygit skill so you might as well foul with a normal lino at that point.
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That is a very good point. Never thought about it that way.
The problem with 16 man teams is that you give up so much TV. And Elves rarely have the ability to have 11 man teams let alone 16. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:02 |
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Ok, lets step back.
This idea of TV exchange rates, the value of the foul and the cost of send off...That is for the birds or guys who like math.
If you followed my advice, see previous words of wisdom, and the game starts. It is your 16 man roster against his 12 man roster.
You start the match +4 on player count. From turn 1 you start laying it on thick, even against rookies. He cannot stand up to the torrent of boots hitting him from left and right.
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At this point you have basically reduced the game to a math crunch. If the 16 man roster gets unlucky on the foul/send off rolls the 12 man roster is still in the game. IF the 16 man roster is rolling a little over average then the 12 man roster team is toast.
Welcome to CRP |
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RedDevilCG
Joined: Jan 09, 2010
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:12 |
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I like the way you think PainState! 
Only problem I have with foul all mens, is that even if you have 16 players, you only get 11 on the field. If you foul every turn, you're getting 2-3 sent off per half luck being average. Can you sustain that attrition plus regular casualties and still have the power to score or prevent a score? |
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NerdBird
Joined: Apr 08, 2014
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:21 |
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Still, my elven teams after 10 games or so are constantly in a flux of 7-11 players. 11 on the roster being very rare. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:28 |
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The idea of foul all menz only really applies to 16 man rosters who carry DP.
Your 12 man roster cannot afford to foul ALL menz, only 51+ SPP menz or the the killer types.
Also the attrition of send off is heavily influenced by is there OT? Who kicks and receives? and the in game random effect of how are the "dice" going? Are you getting sent off but sending them to the CAS box in exchange or just stunning them? |
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Wreckage
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
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Feb 11, 2015 - 21:53 |
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Seriously, can somebody paste those statistics in the forum? I'd love to take a look at them. |
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Purplegoo
Joined: Mar 23, 2006
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Feb 11, 2015 - 22:14 |
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Fouling, like most things, is a combination of in-game situation, positional understanding and risk / reward. Doing things in Blood Bowl entirely by the numbers all the time can trip you up, unless it's a situation like a OTS where it's a binary pass / fail and the best numbers is always right. Just before anyone lives by the spreadsheet (I'd like to see that too, by the way). 
Fouling is rarely the best idea, but it can be. I liked the post about it being a randomiser; this is one of it's best uses. If things are going terribly or you're playing uphill in terms of teams, coaching or both, there is nothing like a bit of fouling; you've not much to lose, and making life more random when you shouldn't be winning can be a fair old gain. |
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El_Jairo
Joined: Jun 08, 2005
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Feb 11, 2015 - 23:24 |
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In a fixed calendar league I am inclined to you are right PainStake.
If matchmaking is TV based than I rather not want to face a team that out skills me and I would have to rely on DP FTW.
I could see it work on cheap linemen.
In fact 70k for a DP lino is the effectiveness breakpoint. Since more expensive linemen have other tasks than to put the boot in if 1 in 3 gets expelled.
Not all races have enough cash to reach 16 players. |
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By the way Pheadrus, do we need anybody to tell us what is good and what is bad?
NAF n°: 21249 |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Feb 11, 2015 - 23:33 |
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One word: Bribes. Take 'em if you can, foul if you got 'em. |
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JimmyFantastic
Joined: Feb 06, 2007
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Feb 11, 2015 - 23:38 |
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Explanation and screenie of stats when approved.
"The AV of the foulee is shown for each row. You can subtract 1 and read off of the next row for each assist you are using for the foul.
The result shows how often you will break armor for each foul. The chance of specifically getting a result better than stun (KO or Casualty) is shown for both regular and ""Dirty Player"" foulers.
The percentage chance you have of getting ejected for performing the foul is shown for regular and ""Sneaky Git"" players against each AV. It increases as the AV goes down because you get ejected for ANY doubles (but you don't role the injury dice if the armor dice failed).
The ratios show how likely it is you'll take the foulee out compared to your fouler getting ejected. 100% means that you'll get your desired result exactly as frequently as you'll get ejected - 50% would mean you'd get ejected twice on average for every one time you succeed.
My takeaway is that if you can set up a foul where the foulee will break on a 6+, it becomes favorable to the fouling player to do so even with neither fouling skill. Although conventional wisdom says not to foul cheaper players, the numbers show it is in your favor to foul even their linemen with your linemen during the second half if you can set up a 6+ break result. This commonly means an AV7 guy with 2 assists (or AV8 with 3). Remember, this is assuming that you're at a point in the game where a KO result is just as good as an injury.
If it's very early in the game and you're looking to rack up injuries, no amount of assists ever makes this better than about a 2 to 1 against. Without bribes I would recommend against fouling early unless you have a deep enough bench to support the ejections, as KOing their player on turn 1 is not an equivalent trade for the risk of a a full game ejection. The only exception would be if the foulee was literally 3-4 times more valuable than the player you were doing the foul with."
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Wreckage
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
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Feb 12, 2015 - 14:32 |
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and there people say SG is useless...
seems it makes a world of a difference.. |
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Kam
Joined: Nov 06, 2012
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Feb 12, 2015 - 14:44 |
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It makes a world of a difference if you're trying to foul an AV10 without assistance, yeah. |
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El_Jairo
Joined: Jun 08, 2005
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Feb 12, 2015 - 15:35 |
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| Wreckage wrote: | and there people say SG is useless...
seems it makes a world of a difference.. |
I disagree. SG makes a difference of maximum 15% less sent offs if you foul AV 10, which is almost useless.
If you want the foul to count it drops back to merely 5%.
So yes I think SG is not worth it in regards of other skill choices.
I really want it to be effective and I am willing to test it on fouls with minimum assists. I mostly expect that it work to disencourage PO usage. But it would only have a small chance of success, so much depends on the knowledge of the opponent. |
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By the way Pheadrus, do we need anybody to tell us what is good and what is bad?
NAF n°: 21249 |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Feb 12, 2015 - 15:57 |
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