Faulcon
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 12:45 |
 
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| SideshowBob wrote: | Go for it is about a 4+. So 16 failures on 22 attempts isn't great, but not terrible either, since you make around one of four 4+-rolls.
Does that make sense? |
No, that makes no sense at all.
1) gfi is a 2+ roll (3+ in blizzard but I would think he'd mention if that had been the case), which means making 5 of 6 attempts on average
2) I'm puzzled as to where 4+ comes from, not to mention 1 in 4 rolls when 4+ is 1 in 2 anyway.
The only way 4 should come into it is the expected number of failed rolls instead of 16. |
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Rusk
Joined: Dec 08, 2003
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 12:49 |
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No, there wont necessarily be bad rolls following.
But I would like to have your predictor program nonetheless, it might be better than the crystal ball I bought from some gypsy woman named Elffun  she only wanted my firstborn |
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Tommi
Joined: May 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 12:52 |
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My version of the BB takes the random seed and rolls all the numbers in advance to the screen, so in my turn I will see what kind of actions will succeed and what will fail, like whether to take 2*2+ or once 3+ and if it's better just to press end turn. Sometimes I 'fail' of course, so not to let it seem like unnatural. |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:00 |
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| Tommi wrote: | | My version of the BB takes the random seed and rolls all the numbers in advance to the screen, so in my turn I will see what kind of actions will succeed and what will fail, like whether to take 2*2+ or once 3+ and if it's better just to press end turn. Sometimes I 'fail' of course, so not to let it seem like unnatural. |
Maybe you can post it then?  |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:01 |
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| Rusk wrote: | No, there wont necessarily be bad rolls following.
But I would like to have your predictor program nonetheless, it might be better than the crystal ball I bought from some gypsy woman named Elffun she only wanted my firstborn |
Want it via email? Might not be good idea to let it be in public as that program can be used for cheating as well.. |
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SideshowBob
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:09 |
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| Faulcon wrote: | | SideshowBob wrote: | Go for it is about a 4+. So 16 failures on 22 attempts isn't great, but not terrible either, since you make around one of four 4+-rolls.
Does that make sense? |
No, that makes no sense at all.
1) gfi is a 2+ roll (3+ in blizzard but I would think he'd mention if that had been the case), which means making 5 of 6 attempts on average
2) I'm puzzled as to where 4+ comes from, not to mention 1 in 4 rolls when 4+ is 1 in 2 anyway.
The only way 4 should come into it is the expected number of failed rolls instead of 16. |
Looks like someone takes my posts way to seriously. Maybe I need to start using these smiley ikons a little more...
And btw, come back when you make 50% of all 4+ rolls. That's something that only a Khemri team can pull of |
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thesquig
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:12 |
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| Tommi wrote: | | My version of the BB takes the random seed and rolls all the numbers in advance to the screen, so in my turn I will see what kind of actions will succeed and what will fail, like whether to take 2*2+ or once 3+ and if it's better just to press end turn. Sometimes I 'fail' of course, so not to let it seem like unnatural. |
Isnt that cheating?
-------------------------
Oh and a seperate issue. NUFFLE SUCKS!!! not the random dice generator.Its all Nuffle's Fault! |
_________________
Nuffle Sucks!!!
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DonKosak
Joined: Apr 06, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:14 |
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| Rynkky wrote: | | If you don't believe me I can make you an predictor program for JBB from which you can see past numbers and numbers to be rolled (like next 20). Then play few games and watch the numbers, maybe you'll notice bad streams after good streams. |
I would love to test that program of yours. As your winning record is not 100% I guess you're not using it yourself? |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:14 |
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| Quote: | | Isnt that cheating? |
No, it is not. It's clever usage of random generator's "randomness".  |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:15 |
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| DonKosak wrote: | | Rynkky wrote: | | If you don't believe me I can make you an predictor program for JBB from which you can see past numbers and numbers to be rolled (like next 20). Then play few games and watch the numbers, maybe you'll notice bad streams after good streams. |
I would love to test that program of yours. As your winning record is not 100% I guess you're not using it yourself? |
Well I'm not cheater. Just gimme email where I can send it. |
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DonKosak
Joined: Apr 06, 2004
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Jun 01, 2005 - 13:18 |
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Email adress pm'ed to you. |
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xen7ric
Joined: Jan 13, 2005
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:19 |
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| Quote: |
If you don't believe me I can make you an predictor program for JBB from which you can see past numbers and numbers to be rolled (like next 20). Then play few games and watch the numbers, maybe you'll notice bad streams after good streams.
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Of course there will be bad streams and good streams, it wouldn't be random if there weren't...
Back to the original post, which, I'm pretty sure wasn't serious and wasn't supposed to spark YET another debate on a computers ability to predict randomness. As well as GFI's being 4+'s they've also got Mighty Blow. How often does a player get injured falling on a GFI?
Seriosly though, the random generators on a modern PC are more random than people can get their heads around. The human brain has an incredible ability to impose order to any situation to save you from seeming utterly powerless, it's how we make decisions without perfect information (which we never have). Because of that you will see patterns emerging in everything you do and always be convinced that anything 'random' is biased. |
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SideshowBob
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:20 |
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| Rynkky wrote: | | DonKosak wrote: | | Rynkky wrote: | | If you don't believe me I can make you an predictor program for JBB from which you can see past numbers and numbers to be rolled (like next 20). Then play few games and watch the numbers, maybe you'll notice bad streams after good streams. |
I would love to test that program of yours. As your winning record is not 100% I guess you're not using it yourself? |
Well I'm not cheater. Just gimme email where I can send it. |
That must be a awsome program, but kinda scary. For instance you can see that your next rolls will be triple six, you have to decide if you should block that annoying gutter or dodge in to 5 tacklezones with your mummy, pick up ball and throw that long bomb you always dreamt about.
Yay, i want this prog  |
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LordSnotball
Joined: Nov 05, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:26 |
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if u want to see realistically how equal the match was, all you do is 'replay' the match. at the end it does a debug, and tells you how many of each dice result was rolled. this covers everything from failed attempts, blocks, armour breaks etc... u might have a whole match with lots of 1s but no failed attempts, because the 1s were on armour rolls. u might have a lot of injuries due to a lot of 6s being rolled... it actually very well balanced! |
_________________
-Snottie
The Congregation - Always Recruiting
[url=http://igolocal.net/badge.php?user_id=1949] [/url] |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 13:32 |
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| Quote: | | Of course there will be bad streams and good streams, it wouldn't be random if there weren't... |
Exactly. And while both players use same instance of random generator, one will have the good streams and the other bad streams. That's my whole point. If both had own instances they'd have both good and bad streams. |
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