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sk8bcn



Joined: Apr 13, 2004
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 00:51 Reply with quote Back to top
that part I did get it. I mean something like that:

A bad stream is a number of xxx rolls in a row which sum is <= to xxx. It is likely followed by a good streak (xxx rolls of sum>= to xxx) in the next xxx rolls.

Why do I want such a discussion=> because you debate lacks of option to calculate probaility.

I mean I could make some risks calculation: likeliness of a good stream appearing in xxx rolls or things alike. Maybe it's just normal or statiscally usual that such things occur what would mean that it has nothing to do with the RNG counterbalancing luck.

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AlcingRagaholic



Joined: Aug 02, 2003
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:03 Reply with quote Back to top
fen wrote:
Quote:
1% - the probability of a zombie picking up the ball that is inside a tackle zone and then dodging out.


Is that right? Cause by my figuring it's 5/6 to pick up the ball then 4/6 to dodge out. Not including a team reroll. Which doesn't feel like it works out at 1%.

I'm not up for doing the math but as an estimate I thought it was nearer 16%. Curious because I've managed this with AG2 players a lot more than 1% of the time.


Actually, it's 1/6 chance of picking it up, and then a 1/3 chance of dodging out. So, 1/18 total chance of picking it up and dodging out.

Z
BiggieB



Joined: Feb 19, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:04 Reply with quote Back to top
well actually u could model it with a renewal process where a renewal would occur everytime any of this "streams" would occur. Then u could calculate the average cycle lenght of such a process. After that u could roll alot of java dice and then do a statistical test and see if the outcome is significant.

happy holidays
Mezir



Joined: Aug 02, 2003
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:13 Reply with quote Back to top
BiggieB wrote:
well actually u could model it with a renewal process where a renewal would occur everytime any of this "streams" would occur.


Which would, in effect, completely obliterate the point, since deleting streams of ones and two, as well of streams of fives and sixes, would leave you with an overwhelming surplus of rolls of three and four. This would drastically lower your standard deviation.

As I've been trying to point out using standard probability mathematics, streams are absolutely expected. All we're debating now is, how much more often (if at all) do these streams occur in the RNG. It's a bit useless, but for those of us who enjoy it it is a light mathematical diversion from our daily plodding. Smile

(I'd rather do this than go back to drawing Nyquist diagrams.)

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BiggieB



Joined: Feb 19, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:25 Reply with quote Back to top
I think you should reread what I wrote or read what a renewal process is

http://www.sics.se/~aeg/report/node17.html might be helpful
fen



Joined: Sep 10, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:26 Reply with quote Back to top
AlcingRagaholic wrote:

Actually, it's 1/6 chance of picking it up, and then a 1/3 chance of dodging out. So, 1/18 total chance of picking it up and dodging out.

Z


1/6? 1/3?

Pick up:
AG2 = 5+ success of picking up the ball, +1 for attempting to pick it up. -1 for the tackle zone = 5+ or 1/3

Dodge:
AG2 = 5+ Success, +1 for attempting a dodge, no tackle zones (so no further modifiers) = 4+ or 1/2

1/2 of 1/3 = 1/6 or 16.67%
BiggieB



Joined: Feb 19, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:29 Reply with quote Back to top
and btw what u refer to as standard deviation is actually called expected value, E[a symmetric d6]=3.5

The standard deviation of a probability distribution is defined as the square root of the variance. which I am quite positive to is NOT 3.5, I might be wrong tough
Mezir



Joined: Aug 02, 2003
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:32 Reply with quote Back to top
That's quite possibly true, as well, which isn't to say that where I said "standard deviation" I didn't mean it, just that I slapped the wrong figure onto it. Smile

Correct figure is 1.7 ish.

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Vicimus



Joined: Nov 16, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:36 Reply with quote Back to top
Does this help anyone?

http://home.kooee.com.au/issima/random3.htm (Yep, another one!)

Here are the other two in case people want to look:-
http://home.kooee.com.au/issima/random.htm
http://home.kooee.com.au/issima/random2.htm
BiggieB



Joined: Feb 19, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:44 Reply with quote Back to top
u know how often those "streams" would occur IRL? untill you do a test u havent said more then "It was quite rare to have a good/bad stream if u roll a lot of dice". To my understanding some are claiming that "good/bad" streams occur more often then they would with a symmetrical d6
VinnieSpleenmasher



Joined: Sep 12, 2004
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:45 Reply with quote Back to top
Posted after my 3rd game in a row wasted by bad dice! The dice are too predictable! At least the BBRC is happy! They are the only ones that love fugly dice. WHERE ARE THE CARDS? Ooops! The BBRC took them away...just like all the other fun stuff!
Mezir



Joined: Aug 02, 2003
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:46 Reply with quote Back to top
BiggieB wrote:
u know how often those "streams" would occur IRL?


The other thread contains a large number of calculations to that effect.

_________________
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
BiggieB



Joined: Feb 19, 2005
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 01:57 Reply with quote Back to top
In case u have the average cycle for a stream to occur, I am sure vicimus can produce (or have produced) a very handy program that gives us the averege of a stream occuring in a sufficently large data. Your ready to do your hyphotes (or whatever its called in english) test. And maybe proving that the RGN do suck.

EDIT: my first post was a bit arrogant so I removed that part
Idolen



Joined: Aug 02, 2003
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 02:30 Reply with quote Back to top
tobardin wrote:
Arrrg, was nonsense.....

Correction: You should forget the 50% for RR.

Mistake is because i used a probability tree to calculate it.

Sorry for this Postflood


LOOOOL this was his 4th post and he's sorry for flooding... something to learn here Macavity ???

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Rynkky



Joined: Aug 03, 2004
Post   Posted: Jan 05, 2006 - 09:35 Reply with quote Back to top
Vicimus, you may want to recheck your proggie. 500% sounds quite high to me..

Quote:

500000 psuedorandom numbers were just generated.
These numbers were organised into 10000 consecutive sets. Each sets contains 50 psuedorandom numbers.

A good stream averages above 3.9
A bad stream averages below 3.1
A good stream occurred 4.4% of the time.
A bad stream occurred 500% of the time.
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