| Poll |
| Who will win Euro 2008? |
| Austria! |
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11% |
[ 6 ] |
| Germany! |
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25% |
[ 13 ] |
| Spain! |
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25% |
[ 13 ] |
| Italy! |
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9% |
[ 5 ] |
| Portugal! |
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17% |
[ 9 ] |
| France! |
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9% |
[ 5 ] |
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| Total Votes : 51 |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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 Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 21:29 |
 
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Well, since England have not made it to this summer's tournament (all part of the FA's masterplan for the squad to be well-rested for 2010, of course), I am perfectly positioned to be your unbiased guide to the teams taking part, having not the slightest inclination for or against any of the teams.
Ha!
Well, I live in Austria (and if that didn't give me a grudge against them, nothing would), a brisk walk from the Ernst Happel Stadion in fact, and there are plenty of other sporting rivalries that die hard, for all that we're not there to keep them up this time. Nonetheless, I try to stay open-minded. 
Some general comments: - European Championships are far harder to predict (in terms of the final winner) than World Cups, where handy rules of thumb - such as, if the World Cup is held outside Europe, Brazil or Argentina win, if the World Cup is held in Europe then one of the big European nations wins and if the World Cup is held in the 1930s then Uruguay win - work extremely well.
But while 18 World Cups have seen the trophies dealt out cartel-like among just 7 nations, the 12 European Championships held to date have gone to 9 different countries (counting West Germany and Germany as one). Much of this can be put down to the fact that these teams and players are very familiar with one another and one another's styles of play, allowing a well-coached team to prepare thoroughly for and surprise those with more talent on paper. On the other hand, two shocks in a row might be a bit much, so it would be no surprise to see the title return from current holders Greece to one of the more traditionally strong European countries this time round.
I don't know about where you are, but I am in Vienna and the weather is pretty hot. I think it's touched 30 degrees this week and (without checking long range forecasts) I wouldn't be surprised if this weather kept up (with occasional stormy interludes) all the way through the tournament. In other words, while this isn't Japan and Korea, expect the usual rules for major summer tournaments to apply: relatively warm playing conditions for players who are at the end of a long season. Possession and energy conservation will be vital.
Anyway, on to the teams!
Group A: Czech Republic, Portugal, Switzerland and Turkey
This is reportedly the last tournament for manager Karel Bruckner, whose Czech Republic sides have always attracted well-wishers thanks to the attractive football he has encouraged. Recent major tournaments have invariably seen some pundit ready to back them as long shots. Sadly, key players from previous campaigns such as Pavel Nedved and Karel Poborsky have retired and captain Tomas Rosicky is out injured. That said, the Czechs did finish above favourites Germany in qualifying, so if Milan Baros can just reproduce his Euro 2004 form … (latest UK betting odds - 12-1)
There is a lot of 'one-man-team' talk going on around Portugal at the moment. With Ronaldo's high profile after an incredibly successful season, this is not that surprising and he has frequently performed brilliantly for Portugal in the past. But for all his ability Ronaldo is not in the mould of Diego Maradona to run an entire campaign and, even if he can still play at his best after a long season, Portugal will still need to see a return to form from Deco, among others, if they are to progress far in the competition. Portugal retain their long-standing weakness of lacking a high quality centre-forward to serve as the pivotal point for their range of creative attacking midfielders - Ronaldo himself might even be the best choice to play in that role. (15-2)
Switzerland may have reason to be worried - in the battle to see which of the joint hosts embarrasses themselves least. Numerous promising young Swiss players who were expected to lead them into this competition have not prospered quite as hoped over the last few years. Even those who play for major clubs, such as Philippe Senderos, are not players who it is easy to have that much faith in (as many Arsenal fans might tell you). If the Swiss are to have any success, expect Lazio midfielder Valon Behrami to play a key role. (28-1)
The match between the Swiss and Turkey may be one to keep an eye on if there is still bad blood from the fracas following the Swiss' World Cup qualifying play-off win two-and-a-half years ago. Old warhorse Hakan Sukur is gone with players such as Nihat Kahveci, after a good season with Villareal, looking to prosper in his absence. However, Turkey do suffer from an unreliable goalkeeper and a defence which is made nervous in turn. Any English people looking around for a team to support may care to recall that Turkey's Colin Kazim-Richards (ex of Brighton and Sheffield Utd) hails from Leytonstone. (50-1)
Predicted qualifiers: Portugal and Switzerland.
Group B: Austria, Croatia, Germany and Poland
Let it not be said that the people of Austria have any illusions about their chances: last year, 10 000 fans petitioned for the national team to pull out of the competition even before it started. Living in Austria since the start of this year and on-and-off at times last year, I have had occasion to see more Austrian matches than I would otherwise have chosen. And I would have to say: they're not that bad! In a recent friendly against the Netherlands, they led 3-0! (And lost 4-3.) Still, I have a feeling they will nonetheless manage to pull off a morale boosting result at some point: maybe a draw with Germany or a win over Poland. Getting out of the group is probably asking too much though. (100-1)
It's difficult to consider Croatia without referring to their role in eliminating England from qualifying. Oops - too late! Oh well, I'll just address the problem head on then - from an English point of view, the Croatia question can only be: does their elimination England prove that they are a potentially great team capable of challenging for the trophy, or does it just prove how abysmal England are/were? And I have to say that I just don't have an objective enough eye to assess this yet. Either way, Luka Modric (for all that he's been signed by Spurs, poor soul) will be a great player to watch and Slaven Bilic as coach can be expected to make few mistakes. (I should also note the absence of striker Eduardo to injury.) (12-1 <-- evidence that these are English betting odds?)
I have to admit, I was surprised to discover that Germany were favourites for the tournament with the bookies. A glance at the team sheet shows an erratic-as-ever Jens Lehmann in goal, a central defensive pair who draw ceaseless criticism from the German press and the on-off Miroslav Klose appearing up front again. Then, however, the eye is drawn to central midfield, where Ballack and Frings are a highly experienced, proven partnership, Ballack having finally this season demonstrated that his move to Chelsea was not a mistaken career move (although, as Jose Mourinho put it: 'Maybe in the philosophy of a loser this was a great season. Which I respect.' (Yes, I just had to shoehorn in that quote.)). To add to that, in Austria and Switzerland, Germany are on the next best thing to home ground. On the other hand, this is much the same side as Germany fielded in 2006, when they prospered under minimal expectations and the remote but decisive touch of Jurgen Klinsmann. Joachim Lowe has yet to convincingly demonstrate that he can set aside reputations in selection and this time Germany have the pressure of being favourites. Many German supporters would like young Mario Gomez get an opportunity, but Lowe seems likely to stick with the tried and tested. (7-2)
I am delighted to note that Poland have joined the cool kids' club of national teams which have somehow acquired a token Brazilian, Roger Guerreiro in their case, to play in their line-up. In fact, I hear that once Sepp Blatter has successfully trampled mere EU legislation to enforce the touted 6-5 rule, he means to implement a 10-1 rule at international level, requiring all sides to field at least one Brazilian. Unfortunately, the rapid granting of Polish citizenship to Roger may be less a declaration of support for open borders in the modern world but more a sign of the dearth of talent otherwise available. (50-1)
Predicted qualifiers: Croatia and Germany
Group C: France, Italy, Netherlands and Romania
I have to confess that France and St-Etienne striker Bafetimbi Gomis was not on my footballing radar until recently. That has changed with his two impressive goals in a friendly which have seen him make the squad at the expense of both David Trezeguet and Djibril Cisse. Whether 'new Drogba' tags are warranted I wait to judge when I see him live. Certainly to have such a promising talent emerging just ahead of the competition must do a lot to raise France's hopes. At the last World Cup they performed far above initial expectations, but also miserably in some matches - everything depended on Zidane. Now the man himself is gone but surely his shadow still lingers? Gomis aside the squad is still much the same group of players who could never quite click without an on-song Zizou. (9-1)
World champions Italy have every right to be put out that they are not regarded as favourites this year. Much of this must be put down to the tough group in which they find themselves. Understandably, Italy put their faith in pretty much the same group of players who triumphed two years ago - and whereas in 2006 they had something to prove in the wake of the corruption scandal, this time they have a point to make after the early exits of Italy's club representatives in the Champions League. (13-2)
The major strength of the Netherlands is probably their selection of strikers: Babel, Huntelaar, Kuyt, van Persie, van Nistelrooy (*takes a breath*) and Vennegoor of Hesselink. If only they could play them all at once. But van Nistelrooy is past his peak, Babel is inexperienced, Kuyt - while appreciated by Liverpool fans for his industry - is no great finisher and van Persie has spent a long time out with injury this season. Huntelaar and … that other one do not play for clubs at the very top level. And in other parts of the team, resources are not quite so great to begin with. If van der Sar can fill his defence with confidence and they can find the right combination of strikers, they may have a good chance of escaping the group, and from there, opportunities would open up. Let's just hope they don't encounter Portugal at any stage, because a re-run of that match would be more than I could cope with … (11-1)
Listen, I wish Romania were in a different group so that it was worth my while telling you at length about the underrated talents of this Romania squad, stop in passing to praise veteran full back Cosmin Contra and make some joke about Adrian Mutu's drugs history. But it's just not. (50-1)
Predicted qualifiers: France and Italy
Group D: Greece, Russia, Spain and Sweden
2004 mastermind Otto Rehhagel still manages champions Greece, but European football's elite, once upset, tend to be ruthless. After their 1992 win, Denmark made a disappointing group stage exit in 1996 and I fear Greece will follow the same trend. To my eyes, the Greek squad provides few names to conjure with: if they are to progress they will rely on the same recipe of discipline and teamwork as shown at the last tournament. (25-1)
While I am in two minds about Croatia, the same cannot be said of Russia, the other side to put to bed England's dreams of qualifying. Since the end of the Soviet Union, Russia's national side has lacked confidence, particularly away from home and also in terms of expressing themselves on the pitch, due to a coaching tradition that emphasised uniformity. While Guus Hiddink has begun to do something about the latter (as demonstrated by their qualification), my lasting impression from Russia's performance in England last year is that he has not yet done enough. Russia were turned over and dominated too easily in that game, and I suspect that - should they reach the knock-out stages and find themselves up against a 'big' side - the psychological side will let them down again. (25-1)
It's easy for self-absorbed England fans to forget that Spain is another major footballing nation which has endured long years without a major trophy (since the European Championship in 1964). The mouth waters when reviewing their squad: in Fabregas and Torres (both of whom have much to prove after excellent seasons personally ended unremarkably for their respective clubs) do they have the best midfielder and the best striker in the competition? And those are just the talents they deign to export! There may be one or two question marks over members of the defence, but otherwise 2008 appears to be an opportunity which is there for Spain to take. (11-2)
Henrik Larsson is in the Sweden squad? Seriously? How many times can one player retire? I mean, it's always nice to see him again and everything, but - Larsson? Anyway, Ibrahimovic, who disappointed so greatly two years ago, appears to have made a return to form at the right moment with Inter - could the two form a formidable striking partnership? Well, with only this midfield to supply them, we'll never know. (25-1)
Predicted qualifiers: Russia and Spain.
What's that? You want an overall prediction? Well, as you might have gathered, I think the title is going back to one of the big nations this time. I would have to go for Spain if they can just break that belief gap, Germany if not. Or maybe Italy. Or …
[I would ask you to point out any factual errors in the above. Errors of opinion will just have to stand.  ] |
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Meech
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 21:55 |
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I picked Germany, because when I did the WC league last time a German player kicked some ass! I don't know his name though.  |
_________________
Putting the FU in fumbbl since 9/2005 |
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foresttim
Joined: Dec 13, 2007
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 22:03 |
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Yeah very nice review Pac. I think this is quite a difficult one to predict as there's not much to choose between the usual suspects. My head says Germany. There's that inevitable air of looking as if they shouldn't get out of the group while at the same time inexorably grinding out the results that move them on. They always manage to leave me amazed they get so far,yet they always do.My heart says Spain ,for Pete's sake the law of averages says that sooner or later both their luck and temperament will hold out and they'll do themselves justice in a major championship. But I'm a Forest fan we're eternal optimists...... |
_________________
James Bond "Don't worry. I'm not supposed to be here either.
Honey Ryder: "Are you looking for shells too?"
James Bond: "No, I'm just looking." |
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Pirog
Joined: Jul 13, 2006
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 22:15 |
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An important reason for Spain's lack of success is their complicated nationality issues. Some of their players just don't seem to be able to motivate themselves fully and in a tournament that means a lot. Still, on paper they have the skills to definately challenge for the win and I suspect it might come this year.
As for Sweden we have a quite interesting team this year, but sadly a lot of key players have been struggling with injuries. It's a very even group and although I think we will beat Russia and Greece to advance I'm a bit worried over the situation.
It's a very open contest in my opinion, but I think Germany might do very well and I suspect that a lot of German fans will travel to Austria and Switzerland to support them. |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 22:28 |
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Hmm, there should probably be an 'Other' in the poll …
Tell, you what, just vote 'Austria' if you mean 'Other'. Think of it as the Macavity option.  |
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Meech
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
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May 30, 2008 - 23:02 |
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I hate to say this. Is there a German player named Ballsack? (ok, i love to say it) |
_________________
Putting the FU in fumbbl since 9/2005 |
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DukeTyrion
Joined: Feb 18, 2004
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 23:13 |
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I think Germany will win it, Klose will be hard to stop. |
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Chewie
Joined: Dec 13, 2006
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| Posted:
May 30, 2008 - 23:23 |
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Spain.
I'm a Liverpool fan.  |
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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| Posted:
May 31, 2008 - 00:02 |
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I suppose Greece doing well again. They combine fine ball handling with tactical discipline.
Germany's chance is quite goo, too. But all the defenders weren't in their best shape lately, especially Metzelder. |
_________________
Gimme a pint of fungus beer!
Then we will climb the ladder.
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Peter_Thorpe
Joined: Oct 08, 2005
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| Posted:
May 31, 2008 - 01:02 |
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spain at 11-2? what the heck! theyve got the be the favourites in my opinion, given there players recent form (look no further than torres for example) they should be able to qualify with relative ease through the group stages, aye yes granted there defense is open to speculation, but i think the rest of the team compensate for that
id fancy a spain V italy final, far be it for me to doubt germany's skill or russia's determination
but i see spain on skill and italy on flamboyance to make it to the final
germany will make the semi's, but no further in my books
Thorpes Betting Syndicate (In no way working against pac's odds)
Czech Republic (20-1)
Portugal (4-1)
Switzerland (33-1)
Turkey (50-1)
Austria (33-1)
Croatia (8-1)
Germany (7-2 J2F)
Poland (33-1)
France (7-2 J2F)
Italy (11-8 JF)
Netherlands (75-1)
Romania (33-1)
Greece (12-1)
Russia (4-1)
Spain (11-8 JF)
Sweden (50-1)
(You might need to understand betting a little more to understand my odds) |
_________________
[url=http://www.sloganizer.net/en/style3,Peter-spc-Thorpe.png][/url] |
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Pirog
Joined: Jul 13, 2006
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| Posted:
May 31, 2008 - 01:09 |
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| Quote: | | (You might need to understand betting a little more to understand my odds) |
You might need to understand football a little more before you try this |
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Peter_Thorpe
Joined: Oct 08, 2005
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| Posted:
May 31, 2008 - 01:10 |
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| Pirog wrote: | | Quote: | | (You might need to understand betting a little more to understand my odds) |
You might need to understand football a little more before you try this |
lol i do understand it!, no-one understands my thinking is all  |
_________________
[url=http://www.sloganizer.net/en/style3,Peter-spc-Thorpe.png][/url] |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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May 31, 2008 - 10:29 |
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I don't like Italian group this time, mostly because I don't think Coach Donadoni to be as good as Lippi.
I voted Germany, because I think they have a very strong group of very talented players (Ballack just sucks imho, though).
Just two things about Italy:
1- Watch out for Di Natale. He's got much more talent than you would imagine. I just don't know if it'll be his year because I don't know if he'll be in the starting eleven much.
2- Toni. If the guy decides this will be his european championship, the sky's the limit. |
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foresttim
Joined: Dec 13, 2007
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| Posted:
May 31, 2008 - 11:41 |
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Russia 4-1 and Czech republic 20-1?????? I'd stick to the day job Peter! |
_________________
James Bond "Don't worry. I'm not supposed to be here either.
Honey Ryder: "Are you looking for shells too?"
James Bond: "No, I'm just looking." |
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Mateuszzzzzz
Joined: Feb 26, 2006
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May 31, 2008 - 11:46 |
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Problem with France and Italy could be that they will need peak of their form for a group stage. If that happens they could be weaker later in tournament. |
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