DanielM75
Joined: Jan 18, 2009
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 Posted:
Sep 01, 2010 - 09:18 |
 
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Hi All
I deal with statistics, probability and randomness a lot at work.
I see many posts where people complain about the randomness because someone broke their AV9 armour 7 out of 10 attempts, or their elves failed 5 2+ dodges in a row, whilst their opponent managed to roll 0 double skulls for the entire game.
And yes, I have been guilty many times of suffering from white line fever and complaining myself.
Just a few facts however that might help people understand how likely certain things are to occur. In you want any other specific ones, let me know.
1. Chance of opponent never rolling double skulls all game. (usually goddam dwarfs, hate the little ()*$^&*()#%)
Let's consider a bashy game where the opponent throws 70 2d blocks for the game. In this case, the chance of rolling 0 double skulls is 13.92%. i.e. it is going to happen once every 7.2 games, therefore fairly likely.
Unfortunately for you, you throw only 40 2d blocks as the damm Dwarfs destroy your elves, and yet manage to get 3 double skulls. So, you (along with me most likely) curse your luck. The chance of you doing this is 7.5%, or 1 in ever 13.4 games.
Therefore, these two events together for this specific number of blocks would occur every 96 games, i.e. it is going to happen to you some day, and if you play a lot, it is going to happen to you regularly.
2. Similarly, there is going to be a lucky day when the Wood Elves manage to knock down your Dwarfs and crash through your AV9 armour without any modifiers 6 in 10 times. Some of you will no doubt think that the RNG is stuffed. First of all, you will only ever count this from the first one that has already suceeded, and stop when one fails, so really we are talking about 5 out of 10. This will happen 1.3% of the time, i.e. once in every 76.8 times after the first succesful armour break.
3. Then dammit, I failed 5 2+ rolls in a row. First I failed a dodge with a re-roll, then failed to pickup the ball with a re-roll, and then failed again with no re-roll left. Well, 5 1's in a row will occur 1 time from every 7776 times you re-roll a series of 5 dice. Considering that on average for evles vs a bashy team you are going to be doing a lot of dice rolling for dodges etc, you probably roll a new sequence of 5 dice some 60 times per match(not counting armour/injury rolls, just turnover inducing dice), this horrible sequence of 5 1's is going to occur once every 130 games. i.e. it will happen to you.
4. Team farming/skill rigging.
No doubt some people have looked at a team and gone, that must be rigged! He has a new team that only has 10 skill ups and yet has got 3 guys with +ST! Well, this will happen to 1 in every 473 teams. Considering how many teams there are out there, it will have happened to quite a few of them.
Someone, if not already, will one day get their first 4 (and so on) skills to be all +ST. This will happen to one in every 1.7 million teams.
Randomness is just that, anything is possible. It is possiblem but HIGHLY unlikely for you to roll 10 1's in a row.
Hopefully of some use.....
Doesn't however mean, that it happening to you in the final of the torunament is not unlucky, but it will all happen to you one day.....hopefully not when it matters most. |
Last edited by DanielM75 on %b %01, %2010 - %10:%Sep; edited 1 time in total |
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f_alk
Joined: Sep 30, 2005
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Sep 01, 2010 - 09:35 |
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Thanks, this post is great. |
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Koigokoro
Joined: Sep 29, 2005
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Sep 01, 2010 - 09:49 |
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Great post. I'd say that could be in the fumbbl FAQ about randomness.  |
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Malmir
Joined: May 20, 2008
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Sep 01, 2010 - 09:59 |
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[quote="DanielM75"]Hi All
Someone, if not already, will one day get their first 4 (and so on) skills to be all +ST. This will happen to one in every 1.7 million teams.
I volunteer to take this hit! Nice post. |
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DanielM75
Joined: Jan 18, 2009
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Sep 01, 2010 - 10:04 |
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Ehlers
Joined: Jun 26, 2006
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Sep 01, 2010 - 12:48 |
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Nice post
On a more "serious" note, can you not come up with how to predict the next dice result while you are at it
And get someone to program a nice program which will predict the next dice result based on previews rolls so that we again can have a reason so people should whine again about the RNG 
I know a very simple request  |
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Cloggy
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
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Sep 01, 2010 - 13:13 |
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Ok, not look at these teams: http://fumbbl.com/~Britnoth and tell me what the odds were against getting all those +ST in such a short timeframe |
_________________
Proud owner of three completed Ranked grids, sadly lacking in having a life. |
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Lakrillo
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
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Sep 01, 2010 - 13:27 |
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Ehlers, your next diceroll on a D6 will be somewhere between 1 and 6. At least there are very high probabilities for that. |
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maysrill
Joined: Dec 29, 2008
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| Posted:
Sep 01, 2010 - 13:34 |
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Most unlikely event I've noticed (for my own teams anyway): a string of 46 consecutive successful Bonehead rolls by an old (now-retired) ogre team of mine. Odds - 0.02% |
_________________
Author of Firehurler (Twinborn Trilogy Book #1), Aethersmith (Book #2), Sourcethief (Book #3) |
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Reisender
Joined: Sep 29, 2007
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| Posted:
Sep 01, 2010 - 13:40 |
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| Ehlers wrote: | Nice post
On a more "serious" note, can you not come up with how to predict the next dice result while you are at it
And get someone to program a nice program which will predict the next dice result based on previews rolls so that we again can have a reason so people should whine again about the RNG
I know a very simple request |
this would make ogres #1 team |
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Kelkka
Joined: Aug 14, 2009
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Sep 01, 2010 - 14:04 |
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This might not be so unlikely, but very memorable:
My lizard team played 2 games in a row, in both saurus died (both were skilled too!), both had apo fails, and on top of that, both had MVP for the game. That's approx 1/16000 if you assume 0.16 dead saurii per game.
Overall very nice post! |
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Melmoth
Joined: May 05, 2004
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Sep 01, 2010 - 14:15 |
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Where is spiro if you need him? |
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Reisender
Joined: Sep 29, 2007
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Sep 01, 2010 - 14:36 |
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If you do a series of 20 dice rolls, your result (numbers in that specific order) will have a probability of 1/6^20 |
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jarvis_pants
Joined: Oct 30, 2008
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id be intrested to know the probability of being helped by the new apo. He seems very unreliable now unless im using him wrong. |
_________________
"May Nuffle have mercy on your rolls." - St.Basher |
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bxnyc
Joined: Jun 23, 2009
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| Posted:
Sep 01, 2010 - 17:00 |
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def put this up in the FAQ wiki, it will help keep things in perspective |
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