Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 20:38 |
 
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Heh,
I know what you all are guessing... not again. But actually this is about a certain misunderstanding I had with fumbbl.com's random number generator on the dice rolls.
I though my Dark Elves (some of you might know them Darkie's Dreams) have been cheated by luck with not getting enough stat increases (namely strength). While it is true, that they have not seen a +ST in ages, I have put my Java skills (meager as they are) to good use and hacked together a nifty little application that came up with the following results:
| Code: | #Players: 229.0
#Skills : 519.0
#MA+ : 25.0 %: 4.82 ideal-%: 8.33
#AG+ : 37.0 %: 7.13 ideal-%: 5.56
#ST+ : 15.0 %: 2.89 ideal-%: 2.78
#Traits : 68.0 %: 13.10 ideal-%: 11.11
#Normal : 374.0 %: 72.06 ideal-%: 72.22 |
Apparently I even had more +ST then I should, far more +AG then I should and, well, more doubles than I should. The program is presuming that I took a stat increase everytime I rolled one, effectively reducing the chance of a double to 4/36 (as MA and ST are doubles as well).
As you can see, I rolled .16% less normal skills than I should. I feel humbled and hang my head in shame.
Btw. the software is so far only working for my team and only for dark elf teams and for LRB4 skills. I know what I wanted to know now, if you want me to adapt other rosters and maybe add a little graphic interface and put it up for download, I will do that.
Of course it would be silly to analyze a fresh thrall team... not much there, isn't it. |
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Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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MightyQuinn
Joined: Jan 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 20:47 |
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does this formula take into count the players that earned a skill roll but died before the end of the game and didnt get it ??? |
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Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 20:52 |
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the program only does analyze skills that were actually rolled for a player on fumbbl.com and thus added to the list. It parses the actual team and the past players for that. |
_________________
Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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Candlejack
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 21:02 |
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why should it consider players that died before making skill rolls?.. and in what way should it do that? makeing a roll on it's own and just add the result to the stats?? and btw sinner.. i always knew you are a lucky git *g* |
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The Sanity Resort |
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Vero
Joined: Dec 30, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 21:13 |
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Note: I do not know what rngs are used by the client or fumbbl site
I have a hunt that fumbbl (site) isn't running on a java platform - might be wrong of course. The client is java though but isn't the skill rolls made by the fumbbl server?
Anyway at least sun's java's random-class 5.0 and 4.2 uses a linear congruential pseudorandom number generator. To increase doupt against those, one particular lcpng implemention used in the 70s is infamous RANDU. Now, while the java's current implemention is a whole lot better there's been development since the linear congruential days. Today's top seem to be Mersenne Twister, which is implemented in java and links are found from the site above. |
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Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 21:17 |
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huh?
what do you want to tell me? |
_________________
Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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Vero
Joined: Dec 30, 2003
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Aug 25, 2006 - 21:21 |
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Nothing in particular, just posted some general info on random number generators and gave a little hint that there might be a great prng already implemented. Though, I'm not in position to ask anything and don't even know wheter a different prng would make things different in a scale of a single game or teams skill rolls. |
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Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 21:39 |
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okay, you did read my post right? I wasn't saying I wrote a prng, I just said I analyzed the rolled skills...
But thanks for the info |
_________________
Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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Vero
Joined: Dec 30, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 25, 2006 - 21:48 |
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Edit: Read your post again. I though you used java's rng to generate the results but you'd used the actual data generated by the fumbbl site. Sorry for missunderstanding, my bad. |
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