Squiglet
Joined: Aug 13, 2015
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Apr 02, 2017 - 10:24 |
 
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@Zakatan - looks good, did you mark it up for postscript then into pdf?
@Rabe after raising funds (1000K + 10k*games + 5k*(TD+CAS)) you re-buy your team again just as you did at the start with the exceptions of FF carries across, can rebuy existing players at cost shown on roster (generally accepted as original cost + cost of skills etc) plus some may wish to retire and cost extra to keep and you gain a free Ass-coach for each retiring player who you do not re-hire... So since it is exactly like the original draft that means any extra gold goes to the team's coffers for use or mis-use on inducements. |
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Cyrus-Havoc
Joined: Sep 15, 2006
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Apr 02, 2017 - 10:30 |
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Niggles go on a 4+ with +1 if you have an apothecary. MNG go as well. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Apr 02, 2017 - 10:39 |
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love it Dr Squiglet
if you searched for old players then picked their unique teams, does this mean you've got old teams, ie ones who played their first 50 games before CRP ? |
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zakatan
Joined: May 17, 2008
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Apr 02, 2017 - 10:47 |
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| Squiglet wrote: | | @Zakatan - looks good, did you mark it up for postscript then into pdf? |
Sort of, i used a Latex online editor that has templates for scientific articles. |
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Squiglet
Joined: Aug 13, 2015
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Apr 02, 2017 - 11:09 |
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| Sp00keh wrote: | love it Dr Squiglet
if you searched for old players then picked their unique teams, does this mean you've got old teams, ie ones who played their first 50 games before CRP ? |
Potentially, although most teams were in the rang of 75-300 games there were a couple of outliers that may predate crp.
Would be better if I had checked the dates for the first games. |
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Rabe
Joined: Jun 06, 2009
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Apr 02, 2017 - 11:46 |
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Thanks for the clarification! It's pretty good for the stunties, as they will always have some money to spend on their tools in the first few games of the new seasons, especially if they are lucky on the EM rolls. 
Nigglings potentially going away is awesome! I tend to have many of those with the Agility Monsters. And you can actually choose to take a NI instead of a stat decrease if your apo semi-failed, at least towards the end of a season. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Apr 02, 2017 - 18:55 |
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I looked at my Blood Sea Buccaneers to see what season end at 25 , 30 or 35 game seasons would look like.
I took my first 25 -35 matches I played with the Buccaneers when I was a total newb and had no clue what I was doing on FUMBBL.
I then took my last 25-35 Games where I think Iam much better player than when I first started. Alos my last 25-35 matches with the Buccaneers we where around 15 games away form our total tear down and rebuild and we had no pile on.
Then I took a random middle period of CRP when the Buccaneers where in their golden age with Krikack the Avatar of Destruction and had 2-4 MB/PO players.
I expected to see a difference in the values of amount of gold for team rebuild between the 3 periods of the Buccaneers. When I was a newb would be the lowest. The common theory is that this system hurts new coaches.
Here is what I found.
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For all periods I calculated restart with a treasury of 200,000 Gold.
Buccaneers first 25 -35 matches When I was Total newb. Matches 1-35.
Season End 25:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match restart R.Value Treasury Combined
31 50 155000 250000 405000 250000 1,000,000 1655000 200,000 1855000
Season End 30 Matches:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
40 62 200000 310000 510000 300000 1,000,000 1810000 200,000 2010000
Season End 35 Matches:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
44 66 220000 330000 550000 350000 1,000,000 1900000 200,000 2100000
Well, I would not say this looks like a total fiasco/disaster for my very first matches on FUMBBL with the Buccaneers.
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Now lets look at the Buccaneers Last 25 - 35 matches and I was hoping to see some improvment over those values at each season end. Matches 1417-1452.
Season End 25:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
32 56 160000 280000 440000 250000 1,000,000 1690000 200,000 1890000
Season End 30:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
36 63 180000 315000 495000 300000 1,000,000 1795000 200,000 1995000
Season End 35:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
40 75 200000 375000 575000 350000 1,000,000 1925000 200,000 2125000
Well, not much difference in the values at all. Some are slighty up and the 30 games mark is down a little. At this point Iam starting to think that "skill" level of playing Blood Bowl when it comes to season end is not that dramatic.
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Then I randomly scrolled up the 1000-1100 game mark. The Golden Age of Krikack and the Buccaneers at their full glory of MB/PO killing power. Surely this will be dramatically different. Right?
Season End 25:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
22 62 110000 310000 420000 250000 1,000,000 1670000 200,000 1870000
Season End 30:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
31 78 155000 390000 545000 300000 1,000,000 1845000 200,000 2045000
Season End 35:
td cas TD Total CAS Total TOTAL Match Restart Restart Value Treasury Combined
39 93 195000 465000 660000 350000 1,000,000 2010000 200,000 2210000
Iam not that imprssed to be honest.
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Conclusions
It makes no damn difference. Sure there are very slight varations of restart value but overall for the Buccaneers at least it made very little difference on restart based on my skill level.
Now this could be because they are a Human team, maybe.
The other thing I noticed when looking at "blocks" of games and put them into the context of seasons. There are some seasons when the Buccaneers are rolling, scoring, inflicting CAS and stomping. Then there are stretches where, well, the Buccaneers are sucking up the joint. Producing what is likely up and down season restart values. Yet i do not think when the Buccaneers are "down" their restart value will have a large negative variance compared to the "up" seasons.
Earlier in this thread, way back in the weeds, I stated my preference for a 30 game season. Just looking at my one main team. I still think the 30 game season is the best.
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This study was posted by a drunk Halfing with no computer skills at all when it comes to formatting and making a nice presentation.
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Last edited by PainState on %b %02, %2017 - %19:%Apr; edited 2 times in total |
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Miceycraft
Joined: Nov 10, 2015
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Apr 02, 2017 - 19:04 |
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Looking at the Bucaneers and painstates example I actually feel like seasons would make things alot more fun. Especially teams with cheap positionals/skills who you can rebuy easily.
Great stuff thanks for sharing. |
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Squiglet
Joined: Aug 13, 2015
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Apr 02, 2017 - 19:13 |
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Another day successfully avoiding doing anything useful has furnished a further set of data and analysis, full text here.
Abstract:
In this study we extend and improve the research presented in our previous paper (1) focussing particularly on Human teams. We develop a selection method for teams that allows better assessment of team performance in the early stages of their careers. We compare how the average Season end re-buy gold compares to the average Team Value up to a Season length of 35 games. We observe that with the improved data set the ‘sweet spot’, where average Team Value is approximately equal to the expected re-buy gold, occurs earlier than previously suggested. We make a detailed analysis of three possible season lengths; 15, 20 and 25 games. We observe that there is no correlation between Team Value and Season end gold for any of these possible Season lengths and discuss possible reasons for this. Furthermore, we analyse the gold excess or shortfall that would have been experienced by each of the teams in our sample for the three different Season lengths, we see that the average excess gold increases with Season length as expected, as does the variance between the amounts of excess gold gained by each team. We argue that for Humans a Season length of 15-20 games would be optimal, we further argue that the Season end re-buy gold system is not designed to be compatible with a TV matching environment like Blackbox as it would tend to further reward the Min-Maxing of teams, instead we suggest that TV matching may need to be removed from Blackbox if or when Seasons are introduced. |
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Squiglet
Joined: Aug 13, 2015
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Apr 02, 2017 - 19:31 |
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@Pain State - what was the TV (or better Tournament Weight) of your team at each of these points?
It is important to look at the context between the two values - for example at game 30 the Bucks were 1880k TV so you would have a shortfall of 70k to make up from your treasury, entirely doable I believe.
However, you ended your most recent match with a TV of 2260k, if that was a Season end you would suffer a shortfall of 570k (25 game Season), 465k (30 game Season) or 335k (35 game Season) which would have to come from the bank - so how much do you think you would be carrying to rebuy the team?
Of course it is academic as the Bucks would not be in the position they are in now if there had been Seasons, players would retire etc. which would tend to keep your TV lower I think. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Apr 02, 2017 - 20:00 |
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Squiglet, great work
"we further argue that the Season end re-buy gold system is not designed to be compatible with a TV matching environment like Blackbox as it would tend to further reward the Min-Maxing of teams, instead we suggest that TV matching may need to be removed from Blackbox if or when Seasons are introduced."
i see your point, that just random match teams means you get an environment where every team strives to be as big as possible, and doesnt minmax
its a pretty heavy change though
if you've a big sucessful bash team, and you match against a rookie, you're just going to crush them. it'd make the box pretty scary |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Apr 02, 2017 - 20:01 |
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| Squiglet wrote: |
Of course it is academic as the Bucks would not be in the position they are in now if there had been Seasons, players would retire etc. which would tend to keep your TV lower I think. |
That is the "rub" when we discuss season play. Buccaneers would no longer able to make all those legendary Ogres as an example. Once an Ogre hits season end, well, he becomes expendable most likely just to lower cost. Rebuy him in game 3-4 of next season as a rookie. Of course there will be exceptions based on skill up rolls/injuries.
For season end, as you get closer, well I will most likely take chances on the EM chart and run the treasury into the 300K+ range. Depends on some factors obviously but at some point you have to take some risks.
Of course the alternative is to min/max the crap out of the Buccaneers and join the masses in boring 1400-1700TV like some of my fellow human teams over in the Black Box. Then again, if I did that, it does not make the Buccaneers better on the field to win matches (Because they play in Ranked) and it also depresses me to the point of why even play with the Buccaneers.
Your Focus is on Black Box. Teams naturally min/max and find sweet spots. It is the #1 way to mess with the scheduler and thus possibly get better match ups to win. Having seasons lengths of 15-20 might reduce the level of min/max but I doubt it. Min/Max is at the heart of Black Box. I do agree that if Black Box has season length of 30. Well, min/max is rewarded by having a large stash of cash on hand for season start.
My Focus is on Ranked where Min/Max is not directly rewarded like in the Box when it comes to the scheduler. There is a large group of coaches in Ranked who do not want season resets set so low it forces us to play at mid level TV all the time. Cant build up legends, cant make off the wall builds on players, the fun stuff we like to do over in ranked.
Iam not against seasons 100%, Iam against season lengths under 30 and over 35 in Ranked.
"However, you ended your most recent match with a TV of 2260k, if that was a Season end you would suffer a shortfall of 570k (25 game Season), 465k (30 game Season) or 335k (35 game Season) which would have to come from the bank - so how much do you think you would be carrying to rebuy the team? "
Well, the current condition the Buccaneers find themselves in, 4-6 players with those perms would be getting a "pink" slip and not carry those -AG and -AV. Which is another thing. I like playing with those guys. I do not retire players until they get to 2+ perm damage usually.
Yes, season end would force my hand and I would have to cut some players. |
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zakatan
Joined: May 17, 2008
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| Posted:
Apr 02, 2017 - 20:04 |
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| Squiglet wrote: | Another day successfully avoiding doing anything useful has furnished a further set of data and analysis, full text here.
Abstract:
In this study we extend and improve the research presented in our previous paper (1) focussing particularly on Human teams. We develop a selection method for teams that allows better assessment of team performance in the early stages of their careers. We compare how the average Season end re-buy gold compares to the average Team Value up to a Season length of 35 games. We observe that with the improved data set the ‘sweet spot’, where average Team Value is approximately equal to the expected re-buy gold, occurs earlier than previously suggested. We make a detailed analysis of three possible season lengths; 15, 20 and 25 games. We observe that there is no correlation between Team Value and Season end gold for any of these possible Season lengths and discuss possible reasons for this. Furthermore, we analyse the gold excess or shortfall that would have been experienced by each of the teams in our sample for the three different Season lengths, we see that the average excess gold increases with Season length as expected, as does the variance between the amounts of excess gold gained by each team. We argue that for Humans a Season length of 15-20 games would be optimal, we further argue that the Season end re-buy gold system is not designed to be compatible with a TV matching environment like Blackbox as it would tend to further reward the Min-Maxing of teams, instead we suggest that TV matching may need to be removed from Blackbox if or when Seasons are introduced. |
dude that'll take a while to put nicely again  |
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Squiglet
Joined: Aug 13, 2015
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| Posted:
Apr 02, 2017 - 20:10 |
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| Sp00keh wrote: |
i see your point, that just random match teams means you get an environment where every team strives to be as big as possible, and doesnt minmax
its a pretty heavy change though
if you've a big sucessful bash team, and you match against a rookie, you're just going to crush them. it'd make the box pretty scary |
Yeah - I've been thinking on that a bit - my suggestion would be 2 fold:
1) For teams in their first Season protect them by matching only with other 1st Season teams, or use number of games played instead of TV in the matching algorithm.
This should stop the really big bullies from crushing the rookie teams could even continue to match by season or number of games after that.
However, the problem now comes with teams that are old but suffer a big TV pruning due to several key injuries, they would continue to be matched against the high TV teams and probably end up stomped into the dust thus...
2) Allow teams in Blackbox to play Friendlies using they gamefinder system. Friendlies do not give MVP, give about half the gold and do not count towards games in a season (all this is part of the DZ1 Season rules).
So a team with several MNGs can get a nice easy friendly vs a non-threatening side to recover the missing players, or potentially play a series of friendlies to bulk up cash reserves / skill players to replace RIPs before activating again in the Box.
It could be a way to amalgamate the two divisions too (Squiglet ducks as several proverbial shoes fly his way for this heresy).
@Pain State - this is why I appear to be focussed on the Blackbox even though I prefer the Ranked environment for play (Go the U-dogs!) I was originally setting out to test the viability of using BB for Competitive games (count towards Seasons) and Gamefinder for Friendly games. With some additional rules for Tourney games. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Apr 02, 2017 - 20:18 |
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| Squiglet wrote: | 2) Allow teams in Blackbox to play Friendlies using they gamefinder system. Friendlies do not give MVP, give about half the gold and do not count towards games in a season (all this is part of the DZ1 Season rules).
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Oh, NO!!!!! Please, good sir, do not convolute this discussion further by mentioning also allowing "friendlies" out side a "season".
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