Zippy_Wonderdog
Joined: Aug 30, 2004
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 Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 14:56 |
 
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Apologies for resurrecting this thread but I'm sure I'd get flamed if I created a new luck thread.
Damned if I do and damned if I don't:p
At any rate in this game me and my opponent rolled about 13 ones in a rowin the final quater-
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=548089
There is something definitely fishy with this generator, apparently its similar to one used in poker machines, all I can say to that is that their wouldn't be a need for Gamblers help if poker machines followed the law of averages. |
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Zy-Nox
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2004 - 15:11 |
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thats right the generator isnt random.
i suggest you all stop playing and move along .. |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 15:58 |
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Yes Zippy you're right. Now you discovered my plan. I'm Satan. I created a false dice generator to cause angerness to fumbbl players. So they start to punch their wifes, or friends, grow crazy and finish as serial killers.
I'm really diabolic mwahahahahahahhahaha
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dtahyaio
Joined: Jun 10, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:01 |
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I keep seeing this repeated from the people that are complaining about the randomness of their rolls, and yet they do not know just how hypocritical they are being.
There is NO SUCH THING as the "law of averages", it is just an observed phenomenon that it is more likely that if you roll 10 million dice, each result from 1-6 will be approximately 1/6. It is entirely possible that all 10 million will be 1's, unlikely, but possible.
The random dice generator used in the program CANNOT produce AVERAGE rolls. It can only produce RANDOM rolls. That is basically the definition of randomness - unpredictability, thus you will NEVER get average. It will just appear to average out with time as the odds for such a large streak get larger and larger.
Perfect example is when i needed 1 gfi for a TD with my werewolf, it was in a blizzard and i had used my rr for the turn already, but still the odds were greatly against me killing my wolf. I then actually said to my opponent in the chat window: "Bah, lets go kill my wolf." Which I did. In times like that, all you can do is laugh.
Put up or shut up. The dice are random. |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:13 |
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What dtahyaio said.
Unless you give me the results of a detailed mathematical probability study that gives me clear criteria why the random generator is not "close enough" to true random, even a streak of 100 ones wont convince me of the contrary. |
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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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phillier
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:19 |
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People wouldn't bitch about the number generator if the game was played the way it was meant to be played...i.e. with the deathzone cards and each team wreaking as much havoc as possible. When these other random parts of the game are removed it makes the dice(which have becoome the only X factor) decide the game. Let chaos rule this game I say. |
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Zippy_Wonderdog
Joined: Aug 30, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:20 |
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Well whoopee do you just contradicted yourself my point was that over a given length of time you should get a variation in the results not 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 etc.
That isn't random thats just bullshit and the longer it goes on the more improbable it becomes. |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:23 |
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D6: 1(173) 2(170) 3(209) 4(167) 5(192) 6(177)
this was my last game. Variation happens, but in normal boundaries. |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:48 |
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| Zippy_Wonderdog wrote: | Well whoopee do you just contradicted yourself my point was that over a given length of time you should get a variation in the results not 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 etc.
That isn't random thats just bullshit and the longer it goes on the more improbable it becomes. |
A string of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 is just as likely as a string of 1, 5, 5, 6, 2, 4, 3.
Please try to grasp the concept of random. Random means that anything that is possible can happen and will happen eventually given enough time.
If you put ten thousand monkeys at ten thousand type-writers, and you let them type keys at random for an infinite number of years, eventually one monkey will write out all the works of Shakespeare correct to the very last punctuation mark. According to you, when that happened, it would be bullshit, because it isn't random. |
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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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Shepherd
Joined: Oct 28, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:58 |
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FWIW, I was playing a RL game Thursday night. I threw, through the course of the games, about fifty blocks.
After the fourth roll of a "3" for an armour crack (on my third turn!) I thought it was odd.
After rolling 10 3s for armour crack by halftime, I was a bit weirded out.
By the end of the game, I had rolled 24 3s for armour cracks. Out of about 50 blocks, I rolled a 1+2 on two six-sided dice nearly 50% of the time. I have no idea how to even BEGIN calculating that, but given that the odds of rolling a 3 with two six-sided dice is under 6% (http://boardgames.about.com/od/dicegames/a/probabilities.htm), it's pretty freakin' strange.
Nobody can tell me that FUMBBL is weirder than real-life BB when it comes to bizarre dice spreads. |
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CorporateSlave3
Joined: Feb 07, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 16:58 |
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"it was the best of times, it was the blurst of times!?!" - C. Montgomery Burns
Ah, poor Mezir, most of us understand and beleive you, but methinks that those who do not will never be swayed! It's like trying to explain to someone with OCD that they don't need to worry about a little dirt, or explaining to an American that McDonalds is not healthy  |
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Shepherd
Joined: Oct 28, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 17:00 |
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Can somebody smarter than me figure out a quick way to crunch all the replay data for the overall dice spread? Just curious.
- Matt |
_________________
A super-hero that always fails his Bonehead roll: MAN-MAN, the averagest hero alive!
Buy Dead Eyes Open, starting July 2005 from Slave Labor Graphics! |
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meanandgreen
Joined: Mar 21, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 17:24 |
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whiner! |
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thesquig
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
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Nov 06, 2004 - 17:49 |
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D6: 1(233) 2(216) 3(217) 4(205) 5(227) 6(181) Total(1279)
And I thought I had good luck this game. Strange really. Sometimes statistics are wrong. Like I always say, I dont care what I get for the armour as long as they go down.
The key dice went my way, the insignificant dice didn't.
But there we are.
Squig |
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HoboJed
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2004 - 18:15 |
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| Zippy_Wonderdog wrote: | Well whoopee do you just contradicted yourself my point was that over a given length of time you should get a variation in the results not 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 etc.
That isn't random thats just bullshit and the longer it goes on the more improbable it becomes. |
Did you know that the probability of rolling 13 1s in a row is only 1 in 10,085,472? "ONLY 1 in 10,085,472?!!?" I hear you cry! Well lets assume that you roll 1000 dice in one game, well that means that there were 988 rows of 13 dice in each game, which means that you should expect a row of 13 1s about once every 10208 games. So if each game has a 1/10208 chance of it happening, that number isn't quite as big any more! "It's still quite big though" you may argue... "I haven't played 10208 games"!!!
Well the useful "Did you know?" message is currently telling me that there have been 272998 matches on fumbbl! That means a row of 13 1s is likely to have happened approximatly 27 times in fumbbl's history (possibly more, possibly less). So why oh why couldn't one of those 27 times have been your match? |
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