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Gridironman



Joined: Mar 18, 2022

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 03:45 Reply with quote Back to top

I looked up whether or not Mighty Blow and Claws stack and found that they do not. Since they do not stack wouldn't claws be preferable over mighty blow if given the option for mutation or strength as primaries?

For instance, I can imagine that Claws would be a disadvantage over stunty, most elf teams, Norse, & Amazons etcetera because their armor would not be modified, so your skill will be latent throughout those kind of matches.

However, wouldn't those teams naturally give way to 2 dice with block and guard over time anyways despite mighty blow effectively reducing their armor by 1 (MB+1, in this respect would lower a Wardancer down to 7 Av whereas claws would retain the 8 Av on the hit unfortunately)?

Whereas, Claws starts to scare teams with high Av like Dwarves that generally have a small roster.

All things being equal, would Mighty Blow+Claws=bloat since they do not have synergy or would those times in which Av is 1 point less effective on an armor roll be worthwhile to essentially throw MB on for the occasions in which claws are meaningless?

My belief is that I should not be crit seeking although 1d20 5% in most rolling game systems is much harder to achieve than a 16% armor break in Blood Bowl. The heat map of a 16% is a lot higher than a 5% but still nothing to rely upon.

I would then come to the conclusion that Claws and Guard are generally better skills than Mighty Blow+1 and Guard, which is still better than Mighty Blow and Claws.

I would think that acquiring the secondary skill block still outweighs getting either Mighty Blow or Claws and there are certainly units within the big guy category that come packed with either Mighty Blow or Claws that should never consider getting both.

What are the thoughts of FUMBBL on this line of thinking regarding the interplay between Claws and Mighty Blow? Which skill would you prefer and why?

_________________
An Amorican Nuffler that bashed in his youth.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 03:55 Reply with quote Back to top

Block > mighty blow > guard > frenzy > tackle > juggernaut > claws/pro

For killing things, that's roughly the best order.

Claws is only better than mighty blow against av 10+ and even then you get a lot of stuns. Mighty blow, because it turns stun into KO, is just much better.

Mighty blow also still adds to the injury even if claws is used to break armour, so it's still an improvement over just one or the other, just not as strong as in 2016.
Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 04:45 Reply with quote Back to top

I like Nelph's order. Though I could see tackle moving up a couple spaces if you are talking about 1 individual player improving their removal rate (ie your blitzer), but as a whole team this makes sense.
boruppeter



Joined: Sep 11, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 06:12 Reply with quote Back to top

The important thing with having Claws and Mighty Blow on the same player is that - while it does not stack on the armour roll - you can use Mighty Blow on the injury roll even if you used Claws on the armour roll, so it increases greatly your chances of removing players from the pitch.
So against Amazons, Skaven, and Wood Elves Claws indeed are kind of a bloat, while on Orcs they're really great:
With Claws and MB you only need 8+, 8+ to remove players (as Orcs generally come without Thick Skull).
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 13:55 Reply with quote Back to top

Carthage wrote:
I like Nelph's order. Though I could see tackle moving up a couple spaces if you are talking about 1 individual player improving their removal rate (ie your blitzer), but as a whole team this makes sense.


Yeah, i mean for team building, i always go 'all get block first. first to a second skill gets mighty blow. all others get mighty blow, UNTIL someone gets tackle as a third skill. as soon as someone has tackle, all others get guard as a second skill, and the next one to already have mighty blow who gets another skill gets frenzy. once i have 4 guard, i start getting mighty blow as second skill. all who have guard but not mighty blow, get mighty blow third. all who have mighty blow but not guard, get guard as 3rd (or 4th for the 1 with tackle and 1 with frenzy). get stand firm after having both mighty blow and guard'
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 15:13 Reply with quote Back to top

Armor + Injury is 4 dice, so there are 6^4 permutations on the AV/Inj roll. 6^4 is 1296. If you're throwing in a 2d block, that brings it up to 6^6, or 46,656. It really really helps to learn your first 6 powers of 6 in this game, and then 6^7 is very convenient (279,936 ~ 280k! Yay!), and 6^9 is basically 10 million, so might as well learn up to 6^8.

Anyway, just AV+Inj is 1296. For unmodified rolls (Claw is unmodified 8+), you can take your chance of breaking AV:
AV 11+: 3
AV 10+: 6
AV 9+: 10
AV8+: 15
AV7+: 21
AV6+: 26

and multiply it by the chance of each outcome:
All breaks: 36
Stuns: 21
KOs: 9
Casualties: 6

So for expected Casualties per 1296 knockdowns, an unmodified roll is
AV 11+: 18
AV 10+: 36
AV 9+: 60
AV 8+ or Claw: 90

If you have Mighty Blow, then you have an extra step. First, you take the same AV math but multiply it by the math for injuries at +1 (36 breaks, 15 stuns, 11 KOs, and 10 Cas), then you take the difference between the AV in question and the AV below it, multiply it by the normal injury math (36, 21, 9, 6), and add those together.

For expected Cas per 1296 knockdowns with MB:
AV 11+: 3*10 + (6-3)*6 = 48.
AV 10+: 6*10 + (10-6)*6 = 84.
AV 9+: 10*10 + (15-10)*6 = 130.
AV 8+: 15*10 + (21-15)*6 = 186.

Claw plus Mighty Blow is 8+ (15/36) times the odds on a +1 injury roll (36, 15, 11, 10). So there are 15 x 10, or 150 Casualties. You can see immediately that the new rules bring this down from the LRB5-6/2016 rules which had it as 186.

So let's compare these across AV. I'm going to include normal Cas odds (out of 1296 knockdowns), odds with Claw, odds with MB, and odds with both, and percent of normal (so double is 200%, and the first entry is always 100%):
11+: 18 (100%), 90 (500%), 48 (267%), 150 (833%).
10+: 36 (100%), 90 (250%), 84 (233%), 150 (417%).
9+: 60 (100%), 90 (150%), 130 (214%), 150 (250%).
8+: 90 (100%), 90 (100%), 186 (207%), 186 (207%).

Stunty available on request, not germane to topic but definitely plays in. I can also compare this to knockdown math and knockdown skills like Block, Dodge/Tackle, Frenzy, and Pro, but not in this post, might follow up later.

Observe also that blocking a lower-AV player (down to 7+) generally means a greater increase in the raw number of permutations to inflict damage as AV goes down, but a decrease in the rate at which that damage accumulates as a proportion. In my head, I call this "the Riddle of Armor." So you can find situations where one coach is incentivized to facilitate another's SPP hunting, around the edges, if they can force a positional advantage or other trade. This is even more true with teams that can "toggle" AV on cheap players, like Undead with both Zombies and Skeletons, and especially Underworld with Goblins and Snotlings.

_________________
Veni, Vidi, Risi


Last edited by JackassRampant on Jan 20, 2024 - 15:21; edited 1 time in total
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 15:31 Reply with quote Back to top

As an aside, I think that Claws MB combo, although weaker, it's still worth it if Claws can be acquired as Primary skill (or the player has it by default and has Primary S access as well).
If Claws access is Secondary I don't think that it's so cost-effective.
I played BB2020 Chaos Dwarfs for a while and according to my own experience getting Clawmb was not so gamechanging, due, likely, to Claws being a Secondary skill (thus not TV-efficient).
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 16:52 Reply with quote Back to top

Claws at 10k is good. 20k is okaaaaay. 40k is terrible.

Mighty Blow at 10k is awesome. 20k is a worthy pick. 40k is too much but it might be worthy in the right condition.

The average price of a player on a starting team is about 75k, but if you have a dedicated hitter, you're probably hitting more developed players and rookie linemen and fewer rookie positionals. The cost of improvements will skew this value up a bit, so I'm gonna pretend it's 100k.

Some knockdowns will come early, some late, so let's pretend that you're hitting at most half a player when it comes to removal. This does not affect stun math; each stun is 1/16 of a player, or 6.25k. Knockouts are 50% likely to recover, with the average knockout in an 8-turn drive resulting in 1/4 of a player-match removed, plus another 1/8 for the following drive, I'm just gonna say 5 turns, or 5/16 of a player, 31.25k. Casualties are half a player, 50k, but they also come with 2 SPP, which can't really be compared so I'm gonna just keep it packaged in.

Assuming you generate 12960 knockdowns, at 20% AV 10+, 40% 9+, and 40% 8+, Mighty Blow will generate:
Cas: (168-72)+(520-240)+(744-360) = 96+280+386 = 762 Cas, x 50k each = 38100k/12960 = 2940 gold.
KO: (204-108) + (620-360) + (876-540) = 96+260+336 = 692 KO, x 31.25k each = 21625k/12960 = 1670 gold.
Stun: (348-252) + (1020-840) + (1404-1260) = 96+180+144 = 420 Stun, x 6.25k each = 262.5k/12960 = 20 gold.
2940 + 1670 + 20 = 4630 gold. You're also getting about 0.12 SPP per knockdown.

So in this math, your MB will break even if you are getting 4.5 knockdowns (20k) or 9 knockdowns (40k).

Is it a good deal? At 20k, on your main hitter, YES! At 20k on your cog, probably, if you're kinda block-happy, but your cog will hit higher AV and will get less for it as a result. At 40k on your main hitter, maybe, if you're really aggressive with him. Changes in assumptions will mess with the math.

Claw/MB is kinda disappointing. On 12960 blocks, at that mix, you'll get 150 x 6 = 900 Cas from the AV9+ and 10+ hits, minus the 688 MB would have got you, so the Claw got you 212 Cas at 50k each, that's 10,600k per 12960 knockdowns, about 817 gold per knockdown. Then you add 990-824 = 166 KOs, at 31.25k each, that's 5,187.5k per 12,960 knockdowns, or 400 gold. For stuns, it's actually negative, but kinda negligible, so you need 8.33 knockdowns or a more AV-heavy mix to justify the Claw at 20k. There's pretty much no way to do it at 40k unless Treemen or Morg or something like that is on the menu.

_________________
Veni, Vidi, Risi
Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 17:33 Reply with quote Back to top

Nelphine wrote:
Carthage wrote:
I like Nelph's order. Though I could see tackle moving up a couple spaces if you are talking about 1 individual player improving their removal rate (ie your blitzer), but as a whole team this makes sense.


Yeah, i mean for team building, i always go 'all get block first. first to a second skill gets mighty blow. all others get mighty blow, UNTIL someone gets tackle as a third skill. as soon as someone has tackle, all others get guard as a second skill, and the next one to already have mighty blow who gets another skill gets frenzy. once i have 4 guard, i start getting mighty blow as second skill. all who have guard but not mighty blow, get mighty blow third. all who have mighty blow but not guard, get guard as 3rd (or 4th for the 1 with tackle and 1 with frenzy). get stand firm after having both mighty blow and guard'


For leagues with development this is the way to go for sure. Mighty blow just ups your growth so much, its part of why my lizards in NCBB did great for a while then fell behind... I prioritized stand firm and guard over mighty blow and they never got SPP.
Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 17:40 Reply with quote Back to top

JackassRampant wrote:
Claws at 10k is good. 20k is okaaaaay. 40k is terrible.

Mighty Blow at 10k is awesome. 20k is a worthy pick. 40k is too much but it might be worthy in the right condition.

The average price of a player on a starting team is about 75k, but if you have a dedicated hitter, you're probably hitting more developed players and rookie linemen and fewer rookie positionals. The cost of improvements will skew this value up a bit, so I'm gonna pretend it's 100k.

Some knockdowns will come early, some late, so let's pretend that you're hitting at most half a player when it comes to removal. This does not affect stun math; each stun is 1/16 of a player, or 6.25k. Knockouts are 50% likely to recover, with the average knockout in an 8-turn drive resulting in 1/4 of a player-match removed, plus another 1/8 for the following drive, I'm just gonna say 5 turns, or 5/16 of a player, 31.25k. Casualties are half a player, 50k, but they also come with 2 SPP, which can't really be compared so I'm gonna just keep it packaged in.

Assuming you generate 12960 knockdowns, at 20% AV 10+, 40% 9+, and 40% 8+, Mighty Blow will generate:
Cas: (168-72)+(520-240)+(744-360) = 96+280+386 = 762 Cas, x 50k each = 38100k/12960 = 2940 gold.
KO: (204-108) + (620-360) + (876-540) = 96+260+336 = 692 KO, x 31.25k each = 21625k/12960 = 1670 gold.
Stun: (348-252) + (1020-840) + (1404-1260) = 96+180+144 = 420 Stun, x 6.25k each = 262.5k/12960 = 20 gold.
2940 + 1670 + 20 = 4630 gold. You're also getting about 0.12 SPP per knockdown.

So in this math, your MB will break even if you are getting 4.5 knockdowns (20k) or 9 knockdowns (40k).

Is it a good deal? At 20k, on your main hitter, YES! At 20k on your cog, probably, if you're kinda block-happy, but your cog will hit higher AV and will get less for it as a result. At 40k on your main hitter, maybe, if you're really aggressive with him. Changes in assumptions will mess with the math.

Claw/MB is kinda disappointing. On 12960 blocks, at that mix, you'll get 150 x 6 = 900 Cas from the AV9+ and 10+ hits, minus the 688 MB would have got you, so the Claw got you 212 Cas at 50k each, that's 10,600k per 12960 knockdowns, about 817 gold per knockdown. Then you add 990-824 = 166 KOs, at 31.25k each, that's 5,187.5k per 12,960 knockdowns, or 400 gold. For stuns, it's actually negative, but kinda negligible, so you need 8.33 knockdowns or a more AV-heavy mix to justify the Claw at 20k. There's pretty much no way to do it at 40k unless Treemen or Morg or something like that is on the menu.



I am actually looking forward to being done with work so I can review this and understand it in more detail.
I think I get it at a glance, but there are definitely intangibles that make it even better than just the numbers. You won't find many dorf or ork players willing to base up a clawMB player even if the removal rate isn't as good as it used to be. Trees would rather fail a dodge (looking at MattDakka) than get punched by clawMB etc.
Not saying the math is wrong or bad, but the intimidation is a value to consider. I kind of think of secret weapons in the same way. They largely aren't that great of pieces but their intimidation value make people play poorly which can be huge.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 19:03 Reply with quote Back to top

This is true, but it's not equal in magnitude to the actual math. If the psychological impact of Mighty Blow and Claw is worth half as much as the mechanical impact, then instead of needing 16+ knockdowns at 40k, you really only need 11. But 11 knockdowns on players averaging 100k is pretty much guaranteed to be an average of 99/5 blocks against Block players, or 44/3 against non-Block. 99/5 is only achievable with overtime or amazing Multiblock shenanigans and zero negatrait fails, while 44/3 is like 15 knockdowns per game from a single player, which might happen in an overtime game but is not remotely sustainable as an average, even in a season with overtime standard (though in that case, you'd add half your tie percentage to the impact of each Cas, while your Stun damage would go down from 6250 per 100k player value to like 4167, which is a 33% decrease if you're only looking at stuns, but doesn't do much to the overall math). Moreover, it's not really so close to anything that is sustainable that exactly the right opposition mix would make it a particularly good idea as a skill pick at the best of times, though maybe in the best of per-match circumstances, we can talk.

But yeah, at 20k, you could totally make an argument that Claw is worth it even if you can't quite pull off the math. Also, every added Cas is another 2 SPP.

Also also, the situation is different for bashers who hit more AV10+. Like, AV8+ doesn't care about your Claw, and that's 40% of the mix for a killer, while it really kinda matters on AV10+, which is only 20% of that mix. But if you're a blocker, you can flip that number, and your targets might be worth more.

Cas: add 96 Cas, x 50k each = 4800k/12960 = +370 gold.
KO: add 96 KOs, x 31.25k each = 1200k/12960 = 90 gold.

So +460 gold per block. Under 8 knockdowns, as opposed to over 8. Shave some for added average player value, and you're around 7. 7 knockdowns per match is hard but doable for a Blocker, but difficult for a big guy with a negatrait. Perhaps the new Vamp big is different, but then you don't have to justify Claw.

So yeah, in that case, it might be worth it on a big who throws 7 or 8 blocks per game, because every once in awhile either the hit or the threat of the hit will break the game open for you. But if you're not consistently smacking tough, expensive players, meh.

_________________
Veni, Vidi, Risi
Klunker



Joined: Apr 02, 2021

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 20:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Very good mathematical analysis, JackassRampant!
I get it and I appreciate it, BUT:

a) Your mix of AV10/9/8 (20%/40%/40%) is probably too cautious to analyse claw. Claw players will actively hunt the AV10 pieces when available and leave the AV8s to their tackle-teammates.

b) More importantly, there is a snowballing effect which I wouldn't know how to calculate. Once you have removed a couple of opponents, you have more tackle zones and more assists. This will have all sorts of tactical advantages and will greatly diminish their odds of causing removals against you. So what I'm saying is: The value of removing a player is greater than just TV/turns. I would probably add something like 15-30% to the value of each removal.
Gridironman



Joined: Mar 18, 2022

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 21:42 Reply with quote Back to top

JackassRampant wrote:
Armor + Injury is 4 dice, so there are 6^4 permutations on the AV/Inj roll. 6^4 is 1296. If you're throwing in a 2d block, that brings it up to 6^6, or 46,656. It really really helps to learn your first 6 powers of 6 in this game, and then 6^7 is a palindrome that's really easy to math out (279,972 = 280k - 28! Yay!), and 6^9 is basically 10 million, so might as well learn up to 6^8.

Anyway, just AV+Inj is 1296. For unmodified rolls (Claw is unmodified 8+), you can take your chance of breaking AV:
AV 11+: 3
AV 10+: 6
AV 9+: 10
AV8+: 15
AV7+: 21
AV6+: 26

and multiply it by the chance of each outcome:
All breaks: 36
Stuns: 21
KOs: 9
Casualties: 6

So for expected Casualties per 1296 knockdowns, an unmodified roll is
AV 11+: 18
AV 10+: 36
AV 9+: 60
AV 8+ or Claw: 90

If you have Mighty Blow, then you have an extra step. First, you take the same AV math but multiply it by the math for injuries at +1 (36 breaks, 15 stuns, 11 KOs, and 10 Cas), then you take the difference between the AV in question and the AV below it, multiply it by the normal injury math (36, 21, 9, 6), and add those together.

For expected Cas per 1296 knockdowns with MB:
AV 11+: 3*10 + (6-3)*6 = 48.
AV 10+: 6*10 + (10-6)*6 = 84.
AV 9+: 10*10 + (15-10)*6 = 130.
AV 8+: 15*10 + (21-15)*6 = 186.

Claw plus Mighty Blow is 8+ (15/36) times the odds on a +1 injury roll (36, 15, 11, 10). So there are 15 x 10, or 150 Casualties. You can see immediately that the new rules bring this down from the LRB5-6/2016 rules which had it as 186.

So let's compare these across AV. I'm going to include normal Cas odds (out of 1296 knockdowns), odds with Claw, odds with MB, and odds with both, and percent of normal (so double is 200%, and the first entry is always 100%):
11+: 18 (100%), 90 (500%), 48 (267%), 150 (833%).
10+: 36 (100%), 90 (250%), 84 (233%), 150 (417%).
9+: 60 (100%), 90 (150%), 130 (214%), 150 (250%).
8+: 90 (100%), 90 (100%), 186 (207%), 186 (207%).

Stunty available on request, not germane to topic but definitely plays in. I can also compare this to knockdown math and knockdown skills like Block, Dodge/Tackle, Frenzy, and Pro, but not in this post, might follow up later.

Observe also that blocking a lower-AV player (down to 7+) generally means a greater increase in the raw number of permutations to inflict damage as AV goes down, but a decrease in the rate at which that damage accumulates as a proportion. In my head, I call this "the Riddle of Armor." So you can find situations where one coach is incentivized to facilitate another's SPP hunting, around the edges, if they can force a positional advantage or other trade. This is even more true with teams that can "toggle" AV on cheap players, like Undead with both Zombies and Skeletons, and especially Underworld with Goblins and Snotlings.


This post was very helpful. It looks like Mighty Blow is objectively better than Claws to the extent that if I had to choose between the two skills I should always select Mighty Blow +1 if both Strength and Mutation access are primaries for the position in question. Mighty Blow almost looks like an essential skill and although it still feels like crit seeking to me to an extent, by the math it an armor break is far more likely than landing a critical hit in another game system. Would it be wrong to emphasize this skill order in a blank roster?

Block>Guard>Tackle>Mighty Blow for non-ballcarriers?

Block>Dodge>Sure Hands for 3+ ballcarriers?

I play in a league with a lot of tackle, but not spammed across the entirety of all rosters. It is my thought that I know that the ballcarrier willbe head hunted by the designated block+tackle+Frenzy+MB piece, that goes without saying. However, if the entirety of my team has dodge, wouldn't that then creat unexpected standing units to exploit the other team? I will eventually attempt to throw on guard, but I am very much within the blodge mindset before I throw on guard.

A fourth skill is a long way to go.

_________________
An Amorican Nuffler that bashed in his youth.
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 22:44 Reply with quote Back to top

About Claws vs Mighty Blow: Mighty Blow was better than Claws even in former rulesets, unless you played mostly vs AV 10+ teams. Mighty Blow, unlike Claws, can affect either the AV or the Injury roll. If you get a lucky high AV roll then you get a +1 to Injury, Claws makes lucky high AV rolls useless (talking about only Claws or Mighty Blow, not about the ClawMB stack)
The classic skill progression for bash teams' players is Block, Guard, Mighty Blow, Tackle (it would be useful to know the race and the opponent races of the league to be more accurate).
You can have 1-2 players with Block, Tackle then Mighty Blow if you play often vs Dodge players, but often just 1 killer with Block, Mighty Blow, Tackle is enough.
Mighty Blow increases the chance to get casualties thus helping the player earn SPPs (because in BB2020 there is no MVP nomination).
Also, if you are interested in anti-Blodge sackers, it's better to build a couple with Wrackle, which is better vs Blodgers. If you can't get many skills even a couple of Wrestlers can be enough to deal with Blodgers.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 04, 2023 - 23:32 Reply with quote Back to top

Gridironman wrote:
JackassRampant wrote:
Armor + Injury is 4 dice, so there are 6^4 permutations on the AV/Inj roll. 6^4 is 1296. If you're throwing in a 2d block, that brings it up to 6^6, or 46,656. It really really helps to learn your first 6 powers of 6 in this game, and then 6^7 is a palindrome that's really easy to math out (279,972 = 280k - 28! Yay!), and 6^9 is basically 10 million, so might as well learn up to 6^8.

Anyway, just AV+Inj is 1296. For unmodified rolls (Claw is unmodified 8+), you can take your chance of breaking AV:
AV 11+: 3
AV 10+: 6
AV 9+: 10
AV8+: 15
AV7+: 21
AV6+: 26

and multiply it by the chance of each outcome:
All breaks: 36
Stuns: 21
KOs: 9
Casualties: 6

So for expected Casualties per 1296 knockdowns, an unmodified roll is
AV 11+: 18
AV 10+: 36
AV 9+: 60
AV 8+ or Claw: 90

If you have Mighty Blow, then you have an extra step. First, you take the same AV math but multiply it by the math for injuries at +1 (36 breaks, 15 stuns, 11 KOs, and 10 Cas), then you take the difference between the AV in question and the AV below it, multiply it by the normal injury math (36, 21, 9, 6), and add those together.

For expected Cas per 1296 knockdowns with MB:
AV 11+: 3*10 + (6-3)*6 = 48.
AV 10+: 6*10 + (10-6)*6 = 84.
AV 9+: 10*10 + (15-10)*6 = 130.
AV 8+: 15*10 + (21-15)*6 = 186.

Claw plus Mighty Blow is 8+ (15/36) times the odds on a +1 injury roll (36, 15, 11, 10). So there are 15 x 10, or 150 Casualties. You can see immediately that the new rules bring this down from the LRB5-6/2016 rules which had it as 186.

So let's compare these across AV. I'm going to include normal Cas odds (out of 1296 knockdowns), odds with Claw, odds with MB, and odds with both, and percent of normal (so double is 200%, and the first entry is always 100%):
11+: 18 (100%), 90 (500%), 48 (267%), 150 (833%).
10+: 36 (100%), 90 (250%), 84 (233%), 150 (417%).
9+: 60 (100%), 90 (150%), 130 (214%), 150 (250%).
8+: 90 (100%), 90 (100%), 186 (207%), 186 (207%).

Stunty available on request, not germane to topic but definitely plays in. I can also compare this to knockdown math and knockdown skills like Block, Dodge/Tackle, Frenzy, and Pro, but not in this post, might follow up later.

Observe also that blocking a lower-AV player (down to 7+) generally means a greater increase in the raw number of permutations to inflict damage as AV goes down, but a decrease in the rate at which that damage accumulates as a proportion. In my head, I call this "the Riddle of Armor." So you can find situations where one coach is incentivized to facilitate another's SPP hunting, around the edges, if they can force a positional advantage or other trade. This is even more true with teams that can "toggle" AV on cheap players, like Undead with both Zombies and Skeletons, and especially Underworld with Goblins and Snotlings.


This post was very helpful. It looks like Mighty Blow is objectively better than Claws to the extent that if I had to choose between the two skills I should always select Mighty Blow +1 if both Strength and Mutation access are primaries for the position in question. Mighty Blow almost looks like an essential skill and although it still feels like crit seeking to me to an extent, by the math it an armor break is far more likely than landing a critical hit in another game system. Would it be wrong to emphasize this skill order in a blank roster?

Block>Guard>Tackle>Mighty Blow for non-ballcarriers?

Block>Dodge>Sure Hands for 3+ ballcarriers?

I play in a league with a lot of tackle, but not spammed across the entirety of all rosters. It is my thought that I know that the ballcarrier willbe head hunted by the designated block+tackle+Frenzy+MB piece, that goes without saying. However, if the entirety of my team has dodge, wouldn't that then creat unexpected standing units to exploit the other team? I will eventually attempt to throw on guard, but I am very much within the blodge mindset before I throw on guard.

A fourth skill is a long way to go.


Generally, the top skills are:

Block (by a lot)

at 20k: Dodge, Mighty Blow, Guard (in no particular order), Wrestle

having one on the team: Tackle, Frenzy

at 40k: one on the team: Mighty Blow, Guard

at 20k: Stand Firm (IF you already have Guard or Mighty Blow), Sidestep, Sprint (IF you have +MA +MA already)

Everything else to taste.


Ball carriers really only need sure hands if: a) you are running less than 3 re-rolls or b) you play against a lot of strip ball AND you don't expect to cage up effectively. Dodge at 40k is really only worth it if you already have the +MA +MA and you failed to get +AG, and you can't get any of the other skills identified above
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