AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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 Posted:
Oct 20, 2004 - 19:02 |
 
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I tried doing a search function, but was unable to find what I'm looking for. Quite simply, just out of curousity, I want to know how often I can expect to roll stat increases or doubles. Check my numbers:
In theory, you have a 1 in 12 chance to get +Str.
Ditto for +Agi/+Ma
For doubles, the possible rolls you can get using 2 dice are:
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
2,2 (2,1 already reflected above as 1,2)
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
4,4
4,5
4,6
5,5
5,6
6,6
By my count, this gives 6 doubles out of 20 possible rolls, or a ratio of 3 in 10.
So bottom line, you have a 1/12 chance of getting any of the stat increases (taken together, 1/4 chance of something) and 3/10 chance to get a double. Just curious if my math is correct, as it seems often times rolls aren't this plentiful. My longest standing team has had 106 skill rolls during its career. By my math, that should give 8 or 9 of each stat increase and 30 someodd double rolls. Yet I've only had 4 or 5 of each stat and 13 double rolls, far below what my statistics say should happen.
Now, granted, these are STATISTICS we're talking about, and my lack of special rolls can be made up for by overabundance of super rolls by another team (though not one of mine as of yet). I'm not complaining (maybe grumbling a little, but not complaining  ), just bored at work. lol |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 20, 2004 - 19:14 |
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Close, but there are 36 possible results. 5+6 may have the same total as 6+5 but it is still a different roll.
So, you have 6+6, 5+6, 6+5, 5+5, 4+6 and 6+4 which provide stat increases. That's 1/36 or 1/6. |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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Rasfahan
Joined: Feb 26, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 19:14 |
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Your statistics are wrong. As an example:
To roll a +ST, you have a 1/36 chance:
1/6 on the first die, that it comes up with a 6, and if does come up, you must roll another 6, again 1/6.
1/6*1/6=1/36.
I won't go into more details, since a quick search on the web on statistics will bring up enough primers on the subject.
[mean grin]
How about a game before you do that?
[/mean grin]
BMM, you beat me to it... |
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 19:21 |
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For +ST you need a double 6, that is a 1 in 36 chance!
For +AG you need a 5 and a 6, that happens in 1 of 18 cases.
For +MA you may use a double 5 or a 4&6-pair. You will get it in 1 of 12 cases.
The chance for a double is 1/6, but remember that a double 6 will be used for +ST, it would be insane not to raise the players strength. |
_________________
Gimme a pint of fungus beer!
Then we will climb the ladder.
 |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 21:08 |
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Well, although I studied astrophysics in college, I didn't deal with statistics too much (yes, quantum mechanics has a lot of statistics, but I came close to failing that class, which is why I stopped with just my bachelors instead of going for a PhD), hence my less than stellar math skills in that department. Thanks for setting me straight. As for the game, Rasfahan, we'll have to see. That mean grin might have intimidated me into not playing against your stellar intellect. 
Edit: On checking your teams, I'll gladly pit my skaven vs your necro or high elves. Name the stadium. |
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Imerikol
Joined: Aug 05, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 21:32 |
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Just to answer your overall question, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling some form of stat increase. |
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CorporateSlave3
Joined: Feb 07, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 21:52 |
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Ah, but you forgot an important detail, how often the 6,6 you rolled will age at 16 SPP and force you to scrap the player. Only happened to me four times so far...  |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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Oct 20, 2004 - 22:26 |
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All but one of my +Str rolls has been accompanied by some form of aging, at all levels of skill (first skill, fifth, etc). Doubles also seem to bring about more than their fair share of aging rolls, too... |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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tautology
Joined: Jan 30, 2004
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Oct 21, 2004 - 01:29 |
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If your name is tautology, the chances of rolling +ST is 1 in 147 ... and counting. |
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Wallace
Joined: May 26, 2004
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Oct 21, 2004 - 01:58 |
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| Quote: | | Now, granted, these are STATISTICS we're talking about, and my lack of special rolls can be made up for by overabundance of super rolls by another team |
Not so. Your rolls are completely independant events from anyone else's rolls and hence you have the same odds of getting +ST or whatever regardless of someone else getting an entire team of super players![/u] |
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the_warboss
Joined: Sep 21, 2004
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Oct 21, 2004 - 03:09 |
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well what about rolling a +1 str (1 in 36) and aging on third skill roll (4+ which is 1 in 1 then losing a strength (1 in 36).
which equates to about 1 in 36 000.
and you feel unlucky. |
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