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2023-06-24 11:32:07
20 votes, rating 3.6
20 votes, rating 3.6
Calculating the odds by playing Blood Bowl (Lesson 1)
For those who are as passionate as I am about probability theory....
it makes no claim to be a university lecture.... it is so to play between the serious and the facetious.
it makes no claim to be a university lecture.... it is so to play between the serious and the facetious.
Comments
Posted by MerryZ on 2023-06-24 12:46:48
50/60 and blue player usually succeeds.
Posted by RDaneel on 2023-06-24 14:00:48
you are a master of cryptography MerryZ ;-)
Posted by luxyluxo on 2023-06-24 17:02:06
My brain hurts....killz all hoomaaaaaanz
Posted by dementor42 on 2023-06-24 17:17:30
"There are no dice." - Dionysian/Spence/maximum derek/maximumderek29
Posted by Dynamix on 2023-06-24 17:51:47
Knee jerk reaction, possibility theory may be a more apt name.
Dice / RNG dont give a damn about our theories
Dice / RNG dont give a damn about our theories
Posted by The_Great_Gobbo on 2023-06-24 18:24:41
Bluddy ell, wot kinda fing iz dis? I karnt rate it az I kan barely reed it, but I likez der graffs, dey iz pretty.
Posted by RDaneel on 2023-06-24 19:21:50
Thanks!
Posted by King_Joffrey on 2023-06-24 19:48:28
Everyone tries to calculate the odds until they get punched in the face!
Posted by koadah on 2023-06-24 21:18:24
What is the TL:DR?
Posted by ramchop on 2023-06-25 01:54:53
Heretic! There is no probability, only Nuffle.
Posted by Seventyone on 2023-06-25 10:53:13
Not sure about your claim that if you have under cassed in the first half you should expect compensation in the second half... The rng doesn't care how unlucky you have been in previous rolls.
Loved the snotlings with dodge maths though
Loved the snotlings with dodge maths though
Posted by RDaneel on 2023-06-25 15:40:48
@Seventyone
I agree it is a statement that should be proven. But every match you can notice some repeated sequences (5 6 5 5 or 6 6 5 5 or 1121) ... And in general even for bash team 2 CAS per game are predictable. If at the end of the first half there was not even one CAS it is "likely" that something bad will happen in the second half. But by the law of large numbers, statistics make sense over a large number of trials.
On the RNG quality I admit don't know how is implemented probably is Pseudo RNG with some random seed taken somewhere... the assumption is that RNG is of good quality of course.
I agree it is a statement that should be proven. But every match you can notice some repeated sequences (5 6 5 5 or 6 6 5 5 or 1121) ... And in general even for bash team 2 CAS per game are predictable. If at the end of the first half there was not even one CAS it is "likely" that something bad will happen in the second half. But by the law of large numbers, statistics make sense over a large number of trials.
On the RNG quality I admit don't know how is implemented probably is Pseudo RNG with some random seed taken somewhere... the assumption is that RNG is of good quality of course.
Posted by Floi on 2023-06-25 17:08:32
Any chance for a version that is not a series of low-res pictures?
Posted by koadah on 2023-06-26 10:50:53
If you have not had any cas/KOs in the first half, it is often the case that you are out numbered & out assisted in the second half. Your chances of getting good blocks and cas can be even lower. Especially if you received first half.
Even if things do "even up", getting two or three cas on turn 16 is often going to be too late to help winning the game.
Even if things do "even up", getting two or three cas on turn 16 is often going to be too late to help winning the game.
Posted by Ridik700 on 2023-06-28 09:05:08
The probability of me caring what any of this nonsense means is 0