“Thanks for the match Lord_Aku! Hopefully Nuffle grants you such dice next game.

This match saw Tortured Creepers receive the first kick, which allowed them to play the game they wanted: bash, isolate, and foul.

This game, the dice were definitely on the Creepers side, with 2 more players than expected being removed from the pitch by turn 6 (averaging 1 player per turn). This was certainly helped by Colegas de Camelot being forced into making a lot of 2+ and 3+ rolls to get at the ball (and since they could make those rolls, the lure of trying to hit the ball was impossible to resist). However, when those rolls were failed (like the minotaur failing a loner roll for a failed gfi for the second frenzy block against the ball carrier), this left the Chaos team in a position to just take more damage. This was exacerbated by the fact that the Chaos failed at least 2 more of those 2+ and 3+ checks than expected by turn 6, which not even team re-rolls could make up for.

Tortured Creepers:

Blocks:
3d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
3d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
2d, 1/2 kd, push with mb
2d, 1/2 kd, ko with mb
3d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, ko with mb (av 9)
3d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, push with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, push with mb
3d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb (av 9)
2d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb
3d, 1/3 kd, push with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, kd
2d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb (av 9)
1d, 1/2 kd, push with mb (av 9)
Bo'sh 2d, 1/3 kd, fail stun
2d, 1/3 kd, kd with mb (av 9)
2d, 1/3 kd, cas with mb
2d, 1/2 kd, kd with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, ko with mb
2d, 1/3 kd, kd (av 9)

Fouls:
DP vs AV 4, cas
DP vs AV 4, ko
DP vs AV 3, stun
DP vs AV 3, stun
DP vs AV 4, cas Murk Banned

Damage Expectations:
fouling: 5616/1296 ab from foul with dp + 468/1296 ab from foul without
333/36 kd vs av 8 w/ mb, 40/36 kd w/o mb, 98/36 kd vs av 9 w/ mb 20/36 kd vs av 9 w/o mb
120+392+400+1665/1296 w/o mb, 3330+588/1296 w/ mb
total: 9534/1296 ab w/ +1, 3045/1296 ab w/o, 11/36 ko 10/36 cas w/, 9/36 ko 6/36 cas w/o
total: 104874+27405/46656 ko and 95340+18270/46656 cas
= 2.83 ko + 2.43 cas

we had 1.2 more ko's than expected, and 0.6 more cas than expected on turn 6, or 2 more players off the pitch.

Ball Rolls:
4+ catch, fail
3+ pick up, pass
8/9 dodge, pass

expected: as rolled

Colegas de Camelot

Blocks:
2 die vs The Rain, 1/6 kd, push with mb
2 die vs Dusk, 1/3 kd, push
2 die vs Predelge, 1/2 kd, kd
2 die vs The Rain, 1/6 kd, push
2 die vs Dusk, 1/3 kd, push
2 die vs The Rain, 1/3 kd, push
1 die vs Predelge, 1/2 kd, fail

expected:
11/36 kd with mb vs av 7, 15/36 ab with mb + 6/36 ab without mb = 165/1296 ab with mb, 66/1296 without mb
5/9+3/4+5/9+1/2 = 85/36 kd vs av 8, 10/36 ab = 850/1296 ab
11/36+5/9 vs av 7, 15/36 ab = 465/1296 ab
= 1381/1296 ab without mb, 165/1296 ab with mb
11/36 ko + 10/36 cas with mb, 9/36 ko + 6/36 cas without mb
= 1815/46656 ko + 12429/46656 ko + 1650+8286/46656 cas
= 0.3 ko + 0.2 cas (or less than 0.5 players out at end of first half)

Non Ball Rolls:
5/6 WA, fail
5/6 WA, pass
5/6 dodge, pass
5/6 gfi, fail, kd
3/6 loner, fail
5/6 gfi, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
4/6 dodge, fail
4/6 dodge, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
35/36 gfi, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
5/6 gfi, pass
3/6 wa, fail

expected: 2 less failures.”