darkside2er
Joined: Sep 07, 2005
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 Posted:
May 20, 2007 - 16:44 |
 
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I'm sure someone can answer this question for me, what are the statistics for evil attacks? how likely is it that a certain faction will attack each night? The way I see it, between the two posited evil individuals (kenneth and Sys) we should burn the one that is capable of attacking more often (for instance if the vampires are much more likely to be able to attack than the hybrid, burn the vampire first!). Then tomorrow night we burn the other evil git! |
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TheSpoonyBard
Joined: Aug 16, 2005
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May 20, 2007 - 17:17 |
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Unvote Lucan, Vote KennethCole
Be pretty stupid of him to claim to be the seer in this case, unless he really was. I'll trust him, for now. |
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Chewie
Joined: Dec 13, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 17:21 |
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<b>Vote KennethCole</b>
Wow Crib! I asked for a development, and you gave me one!
Please scan Plorg next, so we know if he is to be trusted or not. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 17:43 |
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burning the hybrid first is a much better way of verifying the seers ability (much less chance of him just getting lucky, or perhaps burning a team mate to solidify personal reputation) |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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Cribbleobblepie
Joined: Dec 15, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 17:50 |
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darkside2er - just sat with a pen and paper and worked out the odds of who attacking.
As a recap, we've been successfully attacked once. Assuming this is one of the two bigger evil factions (We can't know for sure though) it's currently...
Any double - Hybrid only attacks
2-5 - Vampires attack (assuming vamps attacked, doesn't make a difference for the odds anyway)
6 - Vampires and Werewolves attack
7-12 - Werewolves attack.
Which translates exactly as...
Faction that didn't attack last attacks 50% of the time
Faction that did attack last attacks 22.2% of the time
Both factions attack 11.1% of the time
The Hybrid always attacks 16.6% of the time (regardless of previous results)
Pretty much means we're getting attacked by someone 8/9 times, unless we're very unlucky and get both!
And yes, burn the Hybrid so no one is in doubt of my mystical ability. All I ask is that the healer believes me and gives me another crack at these evil buggers! I have my suspicions already... |
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"You've been DONE!" |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 18:23 |
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Sysiphos: Nicodemus1 JackDaniels
Interesting. I wonder...
shrap: Nicodemus1 JackDaniels
Dannyboy: Nicodemus1 JackDaniels
Are these two just bandwagon cowards (both were voting for lucan then changed to Ken in current voting) or genuine vamps?
Edit: a failed attempt at copying and pasting colors and smilies (these were votes from the front page) |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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JockMcRowdy
Joined: Jul 07, 2004
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May 20, 2007 - 18:40 |
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word up seer man.
<b> unvote pac, vote Kennethcole </b> |
_________________
The White Isle League is by far the best Blood Bowl league in the world. FACT!
If you are interested in joining please get in touch. |
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Cribbleobblepie
Joined: Dec 15, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 18:41 |
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19 minutes before my abilities are proven beyond reasonable doubt. Can I get lucky again, erm... I mean... use my skillful powers of deduction again, and find a third bad guy!?!
*Gets the popcorn out and waits for the burning!* |
_________________
"You've been DONE!" |
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Purplegoo
Joined: Mar 23, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:00 |
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<i>This was no ordinary burning.
The man who claimed to ‘see’ the truth had spoken, and the mob followed his word with little disagreement and great vigour. This, thing, this Hybrid, if that is what the accused man was, was the evil presence that had killed PeteW, the evil that had brought the war to Underton, the evil that had brought the war to their front door.
As the accused was dragged to the pyre, the gusto of everyone working as a team was clear for all to see. Man and unknown beast alike, everyone was fully intoxicated with the desire for the death of this abomination.
As he approached the stack, KennethCole began to fight for his life. Unusual strength meant that he threw off the two unsuspecting men dragging him to the fire. It looked like he would escape to the woods, but his howls only strengthened the resolve of Underton as a whole. United by fear and bloodlust, it took 10 men to hold the flailing KennethCole down to the floor. They could drag him no further. As he writhed in fear and agony, the Hybrid was set alight by torches transported from the fire. As the rest of the town backed away, KennethCole made for the woods, alight like a beacon in the twilight. The town stood aghast as his scream pierced the air, and as the evil torch approached the outskirts of the woods, it’s body finally gave up. KennethCole collapsed. Dead. The bringer of fear and war was no more. Although, fear and war were now here, and it was far from over yet.</i> |
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Cribbleobblepie
Joined: Dec 15, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:01 |
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w0rd  |
_________________
"You've been DONE!" |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:04 |
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your a darn good seer dang you.
I even had popcorn going before I read your post and ate it while I read the burning news |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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Xenon
Joined: Mar 15, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:08 |
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Get in the Seer!
Seems pretty clear now...
Vote Sysiphos |
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Cribbleobblepie
Joined: Dec 15, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:13 |
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Aye, until my magic powers find something better, I'd agree to <b>vote Sysiphos</b>.
Currently getting ready for another vision. Unsure whether it is the correct decision or not, and if you have an opinion I'd like to hear it. So far, my own views have been unswayed by public posts and opinions, and have been very successful (two for two). This time, I've gone for a prominent figure amongst us. A few have called for this person to be killed, a few have supported him. I'll not confirm who I'm planning on scrying, so don't bother asking, but the question is a simple one.
1. Trust my instincts and continue scrying who i believe to be a threat.
or
2. Scry someone who has been vocal to try and gain more insight into their previous posts, regardless of whether I believe them to be innocent anyway?
Kinda feels like a waste of an evenings work, but I can see the benefit in finding another guaranteed ally. Thoughts? |
_________________
"You've been DONE!" |
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Shrap
Joined: Sep 18, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:15 |
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Knock yerself out man
Vote Sysiphos |
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Shrap
Joined: Sep 18, 2006
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May 20, 2007 - 19:16 |
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For all our sakes I hope the healer didn't get wasted all ready. |
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