Imerikol
Joined: Aug 05, 2004
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 Posted:
Aug 11, 2004 - 19:13 |
 
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One stat I would love to see is how many die rolls per game each coach averages. PREDICTION: The best players would be on the low end of the spectrum. |
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Grumbledook
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 11, 2004 - 19:50 |
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hey come play poker with me on one of the poker sites, i'll gladly take your money just like i win more at blood bowl cause hell I am really lucky! no skill involved |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 11, 2004 - 19:59 |
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| AFK wrote: | | One stat I would love to see is how many die rolls per game each coach averages. PREDICTION: The best players would be on the low end of the spectrum. |
I agree with your prediction with one small caveat. The best players know when they need to throw caution to the winds. I know that they're reducing their rolls to the minimum and all but if someone consistently picks tough matches (as is common with the best players... ask Grum. He'll tell you all about how he's the best of them all and only plays up by 100TR or more), they may find themselves put into situations where the smartest option is to close your eyes and say a prayer before moving.
Additionally, early turnovers by rookies will throw off that curve a bit. Someone who takes high-risk actions before low-risk actions will have less die rolls overall.
With some modification, you could adapt the log-checker script I wrote to figure this out from .log files. Unfortunately, incomplete games will throw this off and the number of rolls are stored only as a total, not for each player. As such, you'd get the number of rolls in a match, rather than per coach. "Good" (ie: safe) coach versus reckless coach will yield likely a moderate number of rolls. |
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Stikki
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 11, 2004 - 23:32 |
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The odds of getting a run of say, 5 ones, or 5 sixes, is not in the millions. The odds of getting 5 rolls the same is only in the millions if you only roll the dice 5 times. If you're rolling the dice many tens of times (in a game) or many tens of thousands of times ( in all the FUMBBL games ever played) then runs will obviously appear.
Think about this: What are the chances of getting a run of 1,2,3,4,5 out of five rolls? What about something which seems random such as 1,5,4,1,3? The chance is exactly the same. All that's happening with the run of a single number is that you're finding a pattern in the randomness.
Or if it helps, think about it like this. I roll a dice five times and get 1,1,1,1,1. Wow. Millions-to-one chance of that. But what you don't know is that I've been rolling dice for the last 24 hours non-stop and only once I've got a run of five-in-a-row do I decide to stop. In the process, I've also rolled many other patterns which don't seem random - (1,3,5,3,1; 6,5,4,3,2; etc). But honestly, they are. |
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Imerikol
Joined: Aug 05, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 23:42 |
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This is a funny conversation because it is ultimately one of faith/belief. Some people can be told a million times how something is, but will still cling to their notions in spite of contrary evidence. There is no point in arguing with people who feel strongly on the subject, you won't sway them.
PS- This isn't at all a knock against fair/belief, just an observation that arguing matters of faith is less than productive. |
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Glomp
Joined: Jan 04, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 23:47 |
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| Grumbledook wrote: | | i win more at blood bowl cause hell I am really lucky! no skill involved |
Thought so  |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 12, 2004 - 02:57 |
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lol.. I have a winning record so lets not take that road.
I'll have to load my last three games where my opponent finished 75%+ on the luck meter and I finished 45%-55% on the meter.
Seems when you or your opponent is having bad luck the average of good luck goes to the other. 
Is their a handicap setting?!? 
Just kidding of course.
Does your parser properly count block dice? The block dice have "push" on 3 sides meaning you should see a push at least twice as often as any other result on a block dice.
IF YOU'RE SEEING AN EQUAL NUMBER OF SKULLS AS PUSHES ON A BLOCK DICE THEN YOU'RE A FOOL TO BELIEVE IT ISN'T BROKEN!!!
And to the yahoos.. I notice games where I have crazy amount of luck and they are just as un-fun as bad luck games. I want to play a good game not have a game handed to me without having to put forth much an effort to win. |
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Imerikol
Joined: Aug 05, 2004
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Aug 12, 2004 - 03:50 |
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That luck meter is all but meaningless from what I can tell. All that matters is if you make your clutch rolls and/or the opponent misses theirs. I'm guessing the luck meter weighs in meaningless dice. IE you roll a 'Splat' and a 'Skull', the skull is averaged into your luck despite the fact that it has no game impact and you just floored whomever you blocked.
I've been at over 75% luck for an entire half but couldn't pick up the ball. I just ignore the luck meter now. |
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Wombats
Joined: Oct 31, 2003
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Aug 12, 2004 - 04:32 |
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Long strings of repeated numbers are the best indicater to tell the difference between a random number set and one picked by someone trying to be random.
Some people should go do highschool maths again. |
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www.realultimatepower.net |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 12, 2004 - 05:10 |
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| DaBoss wrote: | Does your parser properly count block dice? The block dice have "push" on 3 sides meaning you should see a push at least twice as often as any other result on a block dice.
IF YOU'RE SEEING AN EQUAL NUMBER OF SKULLS AS PUSHES ON A BLOCK DICE THEN YOU'RE A FOOL TO BELIEVE IT ISN'T BROKEN!!! |
Block dice have skull (1) skull/pow(2), push (3), push again (4) pow!(5) and the smackdown(6)
Unless your block dice have 7 sides and an extra push, that is...
All those rolls are counted in .log file.
And I'll refrain from further comment on whom might be the fool in this scenario, as I'm off on vacation for a week and a half and I'll probably never even see your reply.
Seriously, it's not broken. Really. |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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Mnemok
Joined: Feb 11, 2004
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Aug 12, 2004 - 10:04 |
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I have played like 50 games in fumbbl, I don´t for a minute doubt that the randomgenerator has a distribution that is in fact random. Probably more random then the average dice.
I have also played lots of games in real life. But a perfect distribution in 100k numbers of rolls does not mean that the numbers rolled are random. In computors no such thing as random exists only pseudo random. I still think that a test could be made on the idea I posted in my last post. It might not change anything at all, probably won´t, but at least I would be happy.
(The idea was to roll the dice several times and "randomly" pick one result.) |
_________________
Dyslexics have more fnu. |
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Flix
Joined: Oct 26, 2003
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Aug 12, 2004 - 10:39 |
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The thing is that you play much more games online as offline and your mine remembers the bad moments (1, and Skulls) , and why you have much more dice rolls online than offline you get much more bad moments 6 1 in a row orthomthing like that , but that depend on the hugh number of dice witch are rolled online |
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CircularLogic
Joined: Aug 22, 2003
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| Posted:
Aug 12, 2004 - 10:52 |
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I just checked that log-file and saw the totals of the dice-results. In addition I saw a string of dicerolls (about 90-100) being made AFTER the FF-rolls and the winnings. What are these rolls??
btw:
Having a distribution of
D6: 1(191) 2(182) 3(194) 4(163) 5(166) 6(162)
is quite nasty |
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mymLaban
Joined: Apr 20, 2004
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| Posted:
Aug 12, 2004 - 11:09 |
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| BadMrMojo wrote: | | DaBoss wrote: | | P.S. If a casino was using this generator I'd make a fortune off the double 1s. |
Casinos are using this generator and it's because of people who think like you that they stay in business. |
omg lol so true.............im staying home playing BB from now on No more casino |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Aug 12, 2004 - 13:07 |
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BadMrMojo
2 Push's.. Fat fingers.
Flix
Kind of hard not to remember bad rolls when they happen 5 games in a row.
I remember the games where I have insane luck as well and they are equally not fun for me. |
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